Actually, this is something new. This is the first time since the cease fire was signed in 1953 that one of the countries has fired ordanance into the the other Koreas actual land, and not just in the DMZ.
China is the key part in this whole situation.... I don't think South Korea or the US can't influence **** for the North Koreans to stop attacking.
IMO if NK decides they want to stir #### up than China would be VERY VERY dumb to side with them. That would pretty much be them saying its time for WWIII
IMO if NK decides they want to stir #### up than China would be VERY VERY dumb to side with them. That would pretty much be them saying its time for WWIII
That is the scary thing about this whole situation. This could very well be the start of WW3. I hope to god it isn't but you never know what might happen.
That is the scary thing about this whole situation. This could very well be the start of WW3. I hope to god it isn't but you never know what might happen.
I would think that China has three contigency plans in their books
1) Deploy their own versions of peace keepers to seperate any SK,U.S. troops from going too deep into NK
2) If NK starts something, China quickly moves in to secure the NK leadership, topples the government and installs a puppet regime which allows them to ask for peace.
3) Declare a line in the sand very similar to the first Korean war and state that if you cross this line we're coming.
I don't think that China can counter American Airpower in the region, nor can they counter American naval power or American advanced armour artillary and other in field assets.
But they can throw lots and lots of troops into the frey.
The question as always is how well the South Korean army would do, in the last war they were poor performers and depended on the international community to save their country, I don't know if they would fare much better.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
That is the scary thing about this whole situation. This could very well be the start of WW3. I hope to god it isn't but you never know what might happen.
China isn't stupid, they may have the largest army to protect there own borders but they are not nearly equipped enough to take on the USA. Russia would want no part in a fight either.
The way I see it, China really has to step in and deal with the situation (and most likely, they will). First, China is on a verge of staging itself as an economic superpower. By risking war with anyone would be a huge setback. The way I see it, if china's unruly dog starts biting people and needs to be put down, china will put that dog down themselves. By doing so, China does not lose any control of the situation, and risk no lost of strategic positioning due to invasion or attack.
Simply put, China will just step in and replace the regime. Thus ensuring NK's continued survival as a communist state. Frankly, as much as China has been in the spotlight for atrocities and human rights violations, I'd rather have China assume control of NK. At least the people will eat better.
The way I see it, China really has to step in and deal with the situation (and most likely, they will). First, China is on a verge of staging itself as an economic superpower. By risking war with anyone would be a huge setback. The way I see it, if china's unruly dog starts biting people and needs to be put down, china will put that dog down themselves. By doing so, China does not lose any control of the situation, and risk no lost of strategic positioning due to invasion or attack.
Simply put, China will just step in and replace the regime. Thus ensuring NK's continued survival as a communist state. Frankly, as much as China has been in the spotlight for atrocities and human rights violations, I'd rather have China assume control of NK. At least the people will eat better.
I remember something about the NK intelligence service being severely infiltrated by Chinese spies a little while back. Assassination probably the way the Chinese will deal with it if it ever came to that.
I would think that China has three contigency plans in their books
1) Deploy their own versions of peace keepers to seperate any SK,U.S. troops from going too deep into NK
2) If NK starts something, China quickly moves in to secure the NK leadership, topples the government and installs a puppet regime which allows them to ask for peace.
3) Declare a line in the sand very similar to the first Korean war and state that if you cross this line we're coming.
I don't think that China can counter American Airpower in the region, nor can they counter American naval power or American advanced armour artillary and other in field assets.
But they can throw lots and lots of troops into the frey.
The question as always is how well the South Korean army would do, in the last war they were poor performers and depended on the international community to save their country, I don't know if they would fare much better.
Big problem you havent looked at is how globalized our world is now. Chinese foreign investment into American companies is very very large. How do you sever ties with that sort of thing? Where do we get all our clothes and cheap products?
I think by that account every major power country tries to avoid wars because they will only hurt themselves in the long run. We need them and they need us. No country is completely independent anymore.
I agree China would step in and remove power from NK only after a joint attack by SK and United states.
2) If NK starts something, China quickly moves in to secure the NK leadership, topples the government and installs a puppet regime which allows them to ask for peace.
That's what I see happening. China is a legitimate superpower now and no way do they want more American's stomping around and securing resources in their sphere of influence. I think they are going to take a play from the Russian playbook and eventually "liberate" North Korea. By the end of our life time, I expect that North Korea will be a Chinese satellite state.
I'm not sure the sentiment in China these days to the west though. They don't seem as outwardly hostile any more, but they definitely don't want any interference in their affairs either.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
The question as always is how well the South Korean army would do, in the last war they were poor performers and depended on the international community to save their country, I don't know if they would fare much better.
They would fare poorly. Have you seen the kpop influence and the Starcraft superstars? The men there very effeminate. I mean..check out this guy...
Women think this guy is the manliest of all korean pop stars.
I remember something about the NK intelligence service being severely infiltrated by Chinese spies a little while back. Assassination probably the way the Chinese will deal with it if it ever came to that.
Its pretty well known that there are two factions in North Korean leadership, one based around support for dynastic succession and North Korean empowerment, the other is based around a Chinese faction who think that the current system is an abomination in terms of socialism.
Because North Korea's intelligence services have been heavily trained by the Chinese intelligence services they are viewed with some suspicion by the NK leadership. While the military does have some chinese support in it because a lot of the senior officers were trained by the Chinese it is dramatically loyal to the current government in place which allows it to run its own industries. Because of this there is a constant war between intelligence and the military both trying to gain favor with the good old Dear Leader. By putting Kim's son in a senior position in the military Kim ensures that he has the guns on his side, and the Chinese Military has its own security apparatus. But the price of this is a Military that has suddenly become more assertive.
Previously the NK infactions involved a lot of special forces insertions in SK, and submarines patrolling in North Korean waters, we've also seen minor border battles not unlike the ones that took place between China and Russia right into the 80's. Now the military seems to be much bolder and more aggressive in dealing with the South because they're protected.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Big problem you havent looked at is how globalized our world is now. Chinese foreign investment into American companies is very very large. How do you sever ties with that sort of thing? Where do we get all our clothes and cheap products?
I think by that account every major power country tries to avoid wars because they will only hurt themselves in the long run. We need them and they need us. No country is completely independent anymore.
I agree China would step in and remove power from NK only after a joint attack by SK and United states.
Thats why I see my first and second options as more likely and more image positive for China.
By toppling the North Korean leadership for cause they can also have video of mass food deliveries into NK on the nightly news. China comes out a winner.
By planting peace keepers with or without the UN, the Chinese can state that they're doing their international duty by stopping a war. Again China wins on the international stage.
On the third and most unlikely option, China can declare that a U.S. lead invasion of NK past a certain border point is a serious concern to their national security, and that China is greatly concerned about U.S. naval and air power, and they're doing this strictly as a defensive protocal. Basically cross this line and all bets are off. The Chinese hope would be that the American's would back down from pushing all the way through NK to secure a regime change. If the American's back down, China wins a huge chunk of prestige, if the American's don't back down then China does become a victim.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
I don't think that China can counter American Airpower in the region, nor can they counter American naval power or American advanced armour artillary and other in field assets.
Hm... I read somewhere that the Chinese were developing a missile system that would be able to overwhelm carrier defenses a couple of years back. Given the Chinese knack for mass production, a spam of a few hundred anti-ship cruise missiles and even a carrier's defenses may be overwhelmed.
Hm... I read somewhere that the Chinese were developing a missile system that would be able to overwhelm carrier defenses a couple of years back. Given the Chinese knack for mass production, a spam of a few hundred anti-ship cruise missiles and even a carrier's defenses may be overwhelmed.
I'm always amazed at the battle between bullets and armour, usually bullets always win.
While a ASBM system is a new wrinkle, its the counter by tactics instead of technology.
An American task force can stand further out to sea then the missiles range and still strike inland using aircraft with fuel stores and mid air refueling using buddy systems. Combine that with the ability for American submarines to close inshore and launch advanced cruise missiles to try to strip back ASBM bases and launchers.
Even the use of advanced radars like the Aegis system and satellite detection the American's can use mobility as their friend.
While I'm not discounting ASBM's effectiveness, the American's can bring more advanced military capability to bear a lot more effectively then the Chinese at the moment who still lag in terms of aircraft, ships and especially submarines.
Heck, I'd just strap a couple of patriot missile launchers on my ship.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
