How/Why does Tod Button still have a job?

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by CGY12

The problem has been our top end picks more than our late round picks.

The problem is ALL of our picks then, is it not?

[TOfan]

[QUOTE=SoulOfTheFlame;2397109]Let's explore Calgary's late round steals





Minnesota
These guys don't have a single pick (3rd rounder or more) that I'd consider a steal. We're better than them (GO MOSSER!...)


QUOTE]


I would consider Cal Clutterbuck to be a pretty good 3rd rounder (72nd overall)

[SoulOfTheFlame]

[QUOTE=TOfan;2397128]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Let's explore Calgary's late round steals





Minnesota
These guys don't have a single pick (3rd rounder or more) that I'd consider a steal. We're better than them (GO MOSSER!...)


QUOTE]


Cal Clutterbuck

Noted, but I felt a 3rd rounder who's yet to score more than 12 goals through 2 seasons seemed a bit of a stretch. But I suppose you could consider him one if you expect him to improve and progress more.

[TOfan]

I don't like the guy, but he certainly could play for the flames.

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Fair enough.

[Dorkmaster]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Except that they haven't been... right?

Dion is the only star pick made in the first round since the Tod button regime began. Is this really acceptable?

To be fair how many stars get drafted within 20 picks below our first round, maybe 3 on average and up to 6 in a good year.

I figure if you can draft one "impact" player every 4 years and 2 NHL caliber players per year you're actually doing a decent enough job.

Considering if you tried to make a top 30 list of each draft year you'd probably notice the quality deteriorates rapidly once you start to approach 30. Only the 03 draft has more than 30 solid NHL players.

Someone should test it out.

[ma-skis.com]

I think you need to look at the timing of those picks too, suter, nieuwy, and hull came from the american college system before it was really recognized as a place that could develop stars.

Titov, Makrov, hoglund were all soft European "gambles" (think of how detroit took all those soviets back then too, teams didn't want to take chances like that with their picks on players who might not even come over)

Fleury... I dunno...

still it's like taking russian guy today who might not pan out considering his development in the KHL, I think it had a lot to do with the perception of development in different leagues back then

[Reign of Fire]

We need better scouts...maybe we should steal someone from the Redwings scouting staff by offering them more money...they always find the late round gems

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by ma-skis.com

I think you need to look at the timing of those picks too, suter, nieuwy, and hull came from the american college system before it was really recognized as a place that could develop stars.

Titov, Makrov, hoglund were all soft European "gambles" (think of how detroit took all those soviets back then too, teams didn't want to take chances like that with their picks on players who might not even come over)

Fleury... I dunno...

still it's like taking russian guy today who might not pan out considering his development in the KHL, I think it had a lot to do with the perception of development in different leagues back then

Fair enough, but not every team was finding those players, and The Calgary Flames were. Colorado and Detroit are examples of teams who continue to make their late picks count for something. If the Flames had better Scouts, maybe they could too.

[McG]

i spent some time thinking about this; especially when sutter gave up the coaching reigns so that he could help pick and develop our prospects over the years.

it makes me wonder if tod button puts a short list of players in front of sutter when it is time to pick, and sutter picks the guy. not being an idiot...i just don't know for sure how sutter likes to make his picks. so for example, button could say "i put 3 guys in front of you and 2 of them worked out...you picked the wrong one." for me, what else can tod button do? if on the other hand, button put 3 guys in front of sutter and they all suck...then i guess he would be gone. something like that.

so it makes me wonder...after we bring in more sutters, where is the development, where is the drafting, and where oh where is the faith in our farm system?

with no pressure from the farm to the flames, with a need to trade stud dmen for "depth", with a need to take salary on to dump players, and with our top draft picks traded...what is the 5 year plan for this franchise?

i fear that there isn't one.

and the fact that tod button still has his job suggests to me that he is doing a good job; it is his boss that keeps overruling him at the draft table.

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by McG

i spent some time thinking about this; especially when sutter gave up the coaching reigns so that he could help pick and develop our prospects over the years.

it makes me wonder if tod button puts a short list of players in front of sutter when it is time to pick, and sutter picks the guy. not being an idiot...i just don't know for sure how sutter likes to make his picks. so for example, button could say "i put 3 guys in front of you and 2 of them worked out...you picked the wrong one." for me, what else can tod button do? if on the other hand, button put 3 guys in front of sutter and they all suck...then i guess he would be gone. something like that.

so it makes me wonder...after we bring in more sutters, where is the development, where is the drafting, and where oh where is the faith in our farm system?

with no pressure from the farm to the flames, with a need to trade stud dmen for "depth", with a need to take salary on to dump players, and with our top draft picks traded...what is the 5 year plan for this franchise?

i fear that there isn't one.

and the fact that tod button still has his job suggests to me that he is doing a good job; it is his boss that keeps overruling him at the draft table.

Personally I'm not willing to hang this one on Darryl. Like I said, Tod was around before Darryl, and they weren't exactly lighting it up in those days with Draft Picks (Also remember they had BETTER draft picks than they have now, and Tod STILL couldn't get it done).

Even if the scenario you mentioned does take place, shouldn't the head scout, who spends ALL of his time looking at prospects, be able to convince the GM of who the right pick is?

Maybe if Tod Button had the track record of success, he could do that... but we both know he does not.

I'm happy to suggest my own scenario: This guy's been around for about a decade now, therefore he's a loyal member of the front office and thus he's a member of the old boys club. Which means, unfortunately, he's probably not going anywhere.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by McG

what is the 5 year plan for this franchise?

i fear that there isn't one.

and the fact that tod button still has his job suggests to me that he is doing a good job; it is his boss that keeps overruling him at the draft table.

the five year plan should be to go into a complete rebuild so we might have a good young team in 5-6 years when the new arena is opening.

[ma-skis.com]

oh yeah, and otto too, he was signed as a free agent from the college system too

[Flash Walken]

David Moss was a pretty good late round pick...

[SebC]

I know for a fact Sutter does some prospect scouting himself. Saw him on his way back from the WJHC one year.

Edit: Darryl.

[McG]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Personally I'm not willing to hang this one on Darryl. Like I said, Tod was around before Darryl, and they weren't exactly lighting it up in those days with Draft Picks (Also remember they had BETTER draft picks than they have now, and Tod STILL couldn't get it done).

Even if the scenario you mentioned does take place, shouldn't the head scout, who spends ALL of his time looking at prospects, be able to convince the GM of who the right pick is?

Maybe if Tod Button had the track record of success, he could do that... but we both know he does not.

I'm happy to suggest my own scenario: This guy's been around for about a decade now, therefore he's a loyal member of the front office and thus he's a member of the old boys club. Which means, unfortunately, he's probably not going anywhere.

i just don't know how it works for the flames; it just seems to me that sutter's public persona ensures that he makes the decisions. i just don't know to be honest.

the one thing though...if button hasn't been doing a good job over this time period, even over the last 5 years, he should be gone.

and i won't even touch the trades. but if they were as poorly scouted as they have sometimes appeared...

a case in point. on kotalik, sutter says that he called buffalo and they just couldn't get him under the cap. really? he actually called buffalo? is this how we draft? how about..."we had him watched for a long time and tod button thinks that he will fit well with player x and y, or situation z."

i just think that there is more here than meets the eye. don't know what it is...but if button is doing his job then he should stay. if not... and yet, here he remains.

[JiriHrdina]

I've said a lot of this stuff in the past when this topic comes out but I'll repeat it again. It's not simply a matter of good or bad scouting. When it comes to an organization's ability to produce NHL players there are a myriad of factors at work
- Where they draft, particularly in the 1st round
- How many high round picks they have. In general Sutter has had to use picks to fill out his NHL team while asset-rich organizations like Colorado have been able to do the opposite - stockpile 1st, 2nds and 3rds to fill out the entire pipeline. More bullets in the chamber=more chance to develop NHLers.
- The development system as a whole in an organization.
- Where you draft in what years. A 15th pick one year can be the same as a 45th pick the year after depending on how deep that draft goes. There are some drafts in recent memory where guys when in the top 15 - and the year after they probably would have gone in the 2nd round. So when you suck matters as much as how much you suck. Gotta time it right. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington did. Calgary and Edmonton back in their down years did not.
- Luck. The Canucks had horrible luck when Luc Bourdon died. The Flames have had bad luck with Mickey Renaud, Dan Ryder, Brent Krahn, etc. Some things aren't in your control.


I think people always want to be able to blame a specific person or reason for things - and the reality is that the issue is far more complex than that. So we can sit here and complain about the lack of prospects - or we can dig a little deeper to try and understand what really is driving this.

[Iceman90]

Well said Jiri.

[ma-skis.com]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Fair enough, but not every team was finding those players, and The Calgary Flames were. Colorado and Detroit are examples of teams who continue to make their late picks count for something. If the Flames had better Scouts, maybe they could too.

I have to believe that the developmental system plays a part in colorado and detroit as well, (assuming you're talking about datsyuk, zetterberg, drury,, hejduk)

those systems were flush with strong leaders and strong teams and kids didn't need to be fast tracked through and have huge expectations put on them.

As important scouting is, I would have to say player development would have to play an equally important roll, an 18 year old kid still has a lot of development, physically and maturity wise to consider. If you do it wrong, you end up ruining careers, *cough* daigle *cough*

right now, flames are taking their time and developing servicable players, start there, and lte blooming stars like datsyuk will eventually come out of the woodwork.

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Care to explain your point further?

scouting is not an exact science. it is not an easy job, there is a huge amount of luck involved with players in the later rounds, basically a lot of it is out of your control. The Flames since Sutter took over were not in a position to take risks with their picks. This is a team that had nothing when Sutter took over. NOTHING...so the best action is to rebuild is low risk low reward, especially when you have guys in certain positions that are super stars and proven. And hope that some of them develop but they have Pardy, Gio (not even drafted, doesn't that count?), Moss etc...getting guys not drafted or in the later rounds that have a regular role on the team is pretty good, and that is 3 guys right there.

Anyways not sure if comparing now to 80's is fair, different era, different time, different situation.