2010 Olympics Canadian Predictions

[GirlySports]

hopefully there will be some surprises not on your list!

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

hopefully there will be some surprises not on your list!

I hope so; the alpine team could always turn things around, and the freestyle cross has to get more than 2, and perhaps the men's longtrack team will actually do something before the end, or perhaps the cross-country or biathalon would deliver a massive surprise. Beyond that, we're running out of potential surprises. At least good ones.

[fundmark19]

Called gold in skeleton. Im excited I am going to get to see a gold medal!!!! 2 if canada women can bring one home to!!!

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I hope so; the alpine team could always turn things around, and the freestyle cross has to get more than 2, and perhaps the men's longtrack team will actually do something before the end, or perhaps the cross-country or biathalon would deliver a massive surprise. Beyond that, we're running out of potential surprises. At least good ones.

The thing is, Canada never surprises. Events like the downhill and the GS are a one run thing where anyone can win. How come there's never a Canadian Tommy Moe? Someone who has a fluky good run.

When was the last real Canadian surprise gold medalist? Karen Lee-Gartner?

[Super Nintendo Chalmers]

Originally Posted by fundmark19

Called gold in skeleton. Im excited I am going to get to see a gold medal!!!! 2 if canada women can bring one home to!!!

I think this post was a little late.

[BBZC]

Octo: Thanks for the predictions, its refreshing to be able to read a realistic prediction of how our athletes will do instead of all the over hyping CTV does.

Do you think we could still win the gold medal count? We are only 2 back of the USA and have Curling, Hockey, Womens 1500 Long, Ski Cross etc.?

[fundmark19]

Originally Posted by Super Nintendo Chalmers

I think this post was a little late.

I know I posted it on sunday and race was saturday? But if you look on page one before the olympics I said to watch out for jon he was going to bring home a medal. So I guess I didn't say gold but either way I called a medal and get to see one in person so pumped!!!

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by BBZC

Octo: Thanks for the predictions, its refreshing to be able to read a realistic prediction of how our athletes will do instead of all the over hyping CTV does.

Do you think we could still win the gold medal count? We are only 2 back of the USA and have Curling, Hockey, Womens 1500 Long, Ski Cross etc.?

Excellent question!

Here's how I see it. We're currently at 6. These are the events where we have any shot at a gold-medaling in, and a completely shot in the dark percentage likelihood of gold each:

Women's Hockey 50%*
Women's LT Pursuit 50%
Men's Curling 35%
Men's ST Relay 30% *
Men's ST 500 30%*
Women's Curling 30%
Women's Bobsleigh 30%**
Men's Hockey 15% *
Women's ST Relay 15% *
Women's figure skating 15%*
Men's snowboard parallel 15%
Men's Bobsleigh 5%
Women's 5000 5%
Men's LT Pursuit 5%
Women's snowboard parallel 5%


The Americans have solid gold medal shots in the following:
Women's Hockey 50%*
Women's Bobsleigh: 40%**
Men's ST 500 40%*
Men's Hockey 20%*
Men's LT Pursuit 20%*
Men's ST Relay: 20%*
Women's figure skating 15%
Men's bobsleigh: 10%
Women's ST Relay 10%
Women's slalom 10%
Women's giant slalom 10%
Women's snowboard parallel 10%
Men's snowboard parallel 5%


The Germans have solid gold medal shots in the following:
Men's bobsleigh: 50%
Women's bobsleigh: 30%**
Women's slalom 10%
Women's giant slalom 10%


*denotes sport where we may be going head to head against americans for gold
**denotes sport where we may be going head to head to head against americans and germans for gold

If my percentages are anywhere close to right (and they may not be), we're on pace for 3.1 more gold, the americans are on pace for 2.4, and the Germans are on pace for 1 more. I think it comes down to those head-to-head sports. For example, if we get gold in women's bobsleigh, men's 500 ST, and women's hockey, then that pretty much would lock up the overall gold medal title, as it would leave the americans struggling for golds in relatively low-percentage events. On the other hand, if the americans win all of those, then we would absolutely need golds in curling, long-track TP, men's snowboard parallel, and probably at least one other from somewhere else.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Excellent question!

Here's how I see it.


Women's LT Pursuit 50%

I think that 50% is being rather conservative. Of course I don't want to jinx the team, but I think that number should be 75%-80%

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

I think that 50% is being rather conservative. Of course I don't want to jinx the team, but I think that number should be 75%-80%

Yeah, I actually had it higher (65%) and then I adjusted it down a bit so it didn't look too ambitious.