The coming evangelical collapse

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

The thing is, it doesn't have anything to do with welfare. The conservatives like Dis don't have a spot anymore in the Republican Party as it has been taken over by the religious 'born again' crowd and the Neo-Cons, and they aren't about to give it up. It isn't just the voters who no longer have a place, the old Republican conservative higher ups who used to run the party have become disaffected. Even McCain, in my opinion doesn't fit there anymore. He just played the game to try to get elected and he never was really accepted by the religious, so he had to bring Palin aboard.

Very true. Where do guys like Romney and Huckabee fit into this spectrum... too right as well? Surely Ron Paul can't be the solution.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I hope the Republican party dies a quiet death like it deserves and the Democrats divide into left and right parties.

Wow, that would be a utter disaster.

The Republican Party might 'die'....and a 'true' conservative party, hopefully with a lot of libertarian viewpoints will rise up.

[flip]

Originally Posted by Azure

Wow, that would be a utter disaster.

The Republican Party might 'die'....and a 'true' conservative party, hopefully with a lot of libertarian viewpoints will rise up.

Will never happen.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by flip

Will never happen.

Hey, one can dream, eh.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Very true. Where do guys like Romney and Huckabee fit into this spectrum... too right as well? Surely Ron Paul can't be the solution.

People get the classification of 'right' and 'conservative' mixed up all the time.

The 'religious' right isn't as 'right' as one might think. And certainly not as conservative either as someone like Paul.

If by conservative you mean less government intrusion, ALL over.....gay marriage, abortion, etc, etc.....as well as in the market, you get Ron Paul. The religious right doesn't exactly agree with that. I know....understatement.

Some might believe in less government involvement in the economy....i.e. no socialism, but they screw it up with wanting to have religious input on political and governmental decisions.

[flip]

Originally Posted by Azure

Hey, one can dream, eh.

Yeah, don't get me wrong I'd love to have a true right wing party in the states. Low taxes, small government, separation of church and state etc. but the evangelicals are so deeply entrenched in that party I don't think it'll ever happen.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by flip

Yeah, don't get me wrong I'd love to have a true right wing party in the states. Low taxes, small government, separation of church and state etc. but the evangelicals are so deeply entrenched in that party I don't think it'll ever happen.

Not for a long time at least.

And even if some form of a viable party emerged, they would NEVER get enough support.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by flip

Yeah, don't get me wrong I'd love to have a true right wing party in the states. Low taxes, small government, separation of church and state etc. but the evangelicals are so deeply entrenched in that party I don't think it'll ever happen.

What a crazy thought. A lot of evagelicals love to quote a return to true conservatism (Regan) but are too stupid to actually see that they are so very different.

I'm passed the whole election thing. Obama has the reigns and I think he's going to do a lot of good for the country. What p*sses me off to no end is losers that sit so far to the right (Rush, Coulter, Beck, etc...) that they are rubbing up against Hitler, botched and ruined McCain's chance at the big house for the second time!

With the corruption, scandels, sexual misconduct and total mismanagement of the country, radical/religious right voters should be tarred.

[Daradon]

I can't agree with this article (though it would be nice).

First of all, it doesn't really offer any statistics, it's more of a reason for a perceived shift. And as that CNN article said the other day, there is actually an increase in evangelicalism with the drop in Christianity.

I really don't see the RNC fixing this problem by 2012. In fact I only see it getting worse. The speakers they had at their last convention? I mean if they seriously had a guy at the helm that had a plan, they wouldn't let Rush and Ann anywhere near the podium.

But they are 'popular' in the fact that they have the loudest most outspoken supporters. So it makes the rallies look good. Makes it seem like there is more support than there actually is.

In reality it probably makes more moderate and less religious republicans stay at home, even thinking about switching parties.

I don't see evangelicalism dying out anytime soon. I see it being a thorn in the RNC's side and the thinking worlds side for a while yet.

[photon]

Originally Posted by Daradon

First of all, it doesn't really offer any statistics, it's more of a reason for a perceived shift. And as that CNN article said the other day, there is actually an increase in evangelicalism with the drop in Christianity.

I thought this was interesting though, only 9% profess to what we would probably classify as a fundamental belief, the ones who really walk the talk so to speak.

http://www.barna.org/barna-update/ar...-past-13-years

[driveway]

I spend a fair amount of time reading uber-right wing material on the internet, specifically Free Republic, Townhall and Redstate. I'm not sure why I do it, perhaps the same reason I watch Destroyed in Seconds.

The overriding theme from the posters on those sites is that it is the social-conservative crowd who are the true conservatives and the GOP betrayed them by offering them "democrat-lite" McCain. The acronym RINO (Republican In Name Only) appears over and over again in their posts.

These people are the 'base' of the GOP, they are politically active, firecely devoted to the party and fervently anti-democrat. Each and every last one of them is convinced that any move by the GOP closer to the centre is a death-knell for the party. They want Sarah Palin, they love Sarah Palin. They hold her name up like some kind of magical talisman against the forces of socialist darkness that have swept the nation.

They state over and over again that they need to purge their party of the RINO's who have handed power to the Democrats. They feel that only with a true Social-Conservative 1st, Fiscal Conservative 2nd candidate do they have a shot at winning power again.

There is a real possibility of schism within the Republican party. Also there is a strong possibility of moderate republicans switching to the democrats, bringing their small-government mindset with them. It is not at all inconceivable that by 2012 or 2016 there could be a situation in the states similar to what we had in Canada through the 90's where two centre-right parties split the conservative vote leading to essentially guaranteed liberal government.

The other issue facing the GOP are the considerable demographic problem. Younger voters, college educated voters and hispanic voters all vote democratic by huge margins. Those groups are all only going to get larger over the next several years - especially if the Democrats can find a way to get citizenship to the millions of illegal immigrants currently in the states.

Even without an 'evangelical collapse' the GOP faces major, major problems both internal and external. It could be a long, long time before there is a centre-right federal government in the states again.

[flip]

Originally Posted by driveway

I spend a fair amount of time reading uber-right wing material on the internet, specifically Free Republic, Townhall and Redstate. I'm not sure why I do it, perhaps the same reason I watch Destroyed in Seconds.

The overriding theme from the posters on those sites is that it is the social-conservative crowd who are the true conservatives and the GOP betrayed them by offering them "democrat-lite" McCain. The acronym RINO (Republican In Name Only) appears over and over again in their posts.

These people are the 'base' of the GOP, they are politically active, firecely devoted to the party and fervently anti-democrat. Each and every last one of them is convinced that any move by the GOP closer to the centre is a death-knell for the party. They want Sarah Palin, they love Sarah Palin. They hold her name up like some kind of magical talisman against the forces of socialist darkness that have swept the nation.

They state over and over again that they need to purge their party of the RINO's who have handed power to the Democrats. They feel that only with a true Social-Conservative 1st, Fiscal Conservative 2nd candidate do they have a shot at winning power again.

There is a real possibility of schism within the Republican party. Also there is a strong possibility of moderate republicans switching to the democrats, bringing their small-government mindset with them. It is not at all inconceivable that by 2012 or 2016 there could be a situation in the states similar to what we had in Canada through the 90's where two centre-right parties split the conservative vote leading to essentially guaranteed liberal government.

The other issue facing the GOP are the considerable demographic problem. Younger voters, college educated voters and hispanic voters all vote democratic by huge margins. Those groups are all only going to get larger over the next several years - especially if the Democrats can find a way to get citizenship to the millions of illegal immigrants currently in the states.

Even without an 'evangelical collapse' the GOP faces major, major problems both internal and external. It could be a long, long time before there is a centre-right federal government in the states again.

Most of what you said about the GOP belonging to the evangelicals is actually pretty accurate in a lot of ways.

They've been offering their unwavering support for the Republican party for the better part of the 20th century and get nothing in return.

For a really good movie about just how much the support the evangelicals give the GOP watch With God on Our Side. Great movie.

One of the best parts is when Jimmy Carter calls himself Born Again and the mainstream media acts like he just declared he was in a communist cult. Mainstream America literally had no idea what the hell evangelicalism was all about until fairly recently.

And for the GOP to pick McCain as their candidate, after the religious right finally got their evangelical President in W., needless to say they were pretty pissed off, hence the love for crazy ass Palin.

In a sense the GOP does, at least now, belong to the religious right. Just hopefully the non-crazies can take it back.

[Azure]

I don't think the support for Palin is JUST coming from the religious right. I know a lot of small government conservatives who supported her too.

Who knows.....in 2012/2016....with more experience, she'll present a better platform and be a better candidate.

Obama might have gotten trashed should he have run against Bush in '04.

Also, interesting to note that there are actually statistically, IIRC, more fiscially responsible politicians within the Democrat party than the Republican party.

Evan Bayh is a good example. Apparently he was in the running for VP too.

So, I can actually see the small government conservative pull away from the Republican Party. Problem is, the religious crowd would follow suit. And then you get the same cyle all over again.

No way the Democrat Party adds Republicans. If anything, both parties get purged as the small government, fiscally responsible members break away and start their own party.

[Weiser Wonder]

Palin's a terrible candidate in any circumstance. She couldn't name a Supreme Court case. If you have taken American Poli Sci, you know how easy that is. She isn't rhetorically incompetent like a GWB, who at least seemed to have a passably good grasp on American history and law. She actually and scarily incompetent. Enough for a lot of fence-sitters to switch to solid Obama supporters. Palin's incompetence made voting for her in any capacity infathomable to many.

And no American political parties are not disbanding. The Republican party will eventually realize they will have become more viable to the public to survive. It might take a while but that's what will happen. Happens all the time.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by flip

Will never happen.

But a new left/right Democrat party split is so much more likely to happen...

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by peter12

But a new left/right Democrat party split is so much more likely to happen...

I realize you're being facetious, but really, it's not so crazy. The Democrats are a very "big tent" party right now, with members ranging from NDP-style leftists to fiscal conservatives/social liberals to even a few true conservatives. The GOP, by contrast runs a much tighter ideological ship, and that may be one reason they're becoming less relevant.

Look no further than a state like Massachussetts. The GOP here is completely irrelevant, and all the meaningful political jockeying takes place between the left and right wings of the Democratic party. It's not an ideal situation (meaningful and legitimate opposition is an essential part of government in my view), but nature abhors a vacuum, and politics abhors consensus in the same way. The more the GOP fades from view, the more emboldened the right wing of the Democratic party will become--you're seeing it already.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I realize you're being facetious, but really, it's not so crazy. The Democrats are a very "big tent" party right now, with members ranging from NDP-style leftists to fiscal conservatives/social liberals to even a few true conservatives. The GOP, by contrast runs a much tighter ideological ship, and that may be one reason they're becoming less relevant.

Look no further than a state like Massachussetts. The GOP here is completely irrelevant, and all the meaningful political jockeying takes place between the left and right wings of the Democratic party. It's not an ideal situation (meaningful and legitimate opposition is an essential part of government in my view), but nature abhors a vacuum, and politics abhors consensus in the same way. The more the GOP fades from view, the more emboldened the right wing of the Democratic party will become--you're seeing it already.

Sure, but then they move to the Republican Party. The ideological abandon ship of conservative democrats has happened many times before.

That's why Reagan won and it is why I believe Obama, given time, will damage the Democrat Party once again.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by photon

I thought this was interesting though, only 9% profess to what we would probably classify as a fundamental belief, the ones who really walk the talk so to speak.

http://www.barna.org/barna-update/ar...-past-13-years

The myth of an evangelical controlled Republican Party is one of the most soft-minded self-lies that left-wing ideologists tell themselves.

The Republican Party is corrupt, ideologically confused, and is coming out of one of their most unpredictable and disappointing stints with power ever. They will be back. Americans, are at heart, an essentially conservative people. All it takes is another Gingrich.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by peter12

The myth of an evangelical controlled Republican Party is one of the most soft-minded self-lies that left-wing ideologists tell themselves.

Sort of like the "Homosexuality is a choice," self-lie that right-wing ideologists tell themselves?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Sort of like the "Homosexuality is a choice," self-lie that right-wing ideologists tell themselves?

Oh yeah, for sure. As someone who would call themselves "conservative" I am very aware of the dangers of ideology among people "of my own kind." Just because I criticize someone else, doesn't mean that I hesitate to criticize everyone.

Although, I can say for sure that your example is a lot less common than mine. Most libertarians/classical liberals/ fiscal conservatives/communitarian conservatives don't give a damn about homosexuality.