Slava plays Clairvoyant of Calgary

[Nancy]

Originally Posted by Slava

<SNIP>

Lets face it...when the GDP drop is 0.6% we are not looking at armageddon here. Yes, there is a lot of pain particularly in the US where a 25 trillion dollar market (housing) has just trimmed $5 Trillion (20%). That type of drop is going to be painful. People are ditching their houses and keeping their cars...which is an anomaly compared to past events. But at the same time you have corporations with balance sheets that are very strong. You have demand in SE Asia that was simply not there in previous decades, and by all accounts that demand will strengthen over the coming year.

There is no question that this is a temporary situation on the markets.

I guess this is the wildcard... It either gives you comfort or worry. Being so heavily dependent on exporting to Western markets, a slow down in consumer spending is going to have some sort of impact on these countries. In fact, didn't China itself recently annouce a $500billion stimulus package for Chinese companies?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Nancy

I guess this is the wildcard... Being so heavily dependent on exporting to Western markets, a slow down in consumer spending is going to have some sort of impact on these countries. In fact, didn't China itself recently annouce a $500billion stimulus package for Chinese companies?

This is a wild-card indeed. I guess that if the demand in SE Asia is not as solid as expected than things will be bad for longer. That still doesn't mean bad forever though!

As far as global deflation there were fears about this in 1998 as well, so that is still not brand new (and definitely not a good thing in any event). We are not in that situation yet however, we just barely entered what is technically a recession so lets not put the cart before the horse.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by fotze

Do you guys really think that past trends apply to this situation. To me (uneducated on this of course) this seems like unchartered waters that you cannot use past patterns to predict what will happen.

Yup, I do. Absolutely. If you look at all of the corrections/bear markets of the last several decades, they all had different stimuli. Every single one of them: 1957, '70, '74, '81-82, '87, '90, '98, '00-02. We'll come out of this as we have all the others.

This is my bottom line and the only thing that drives these decisions for me: I absolutely and totally believe that five years from now the markets will be much higher than today and today's prices will seem like a bargain. That's why I'm buying. Warren Buffett is, too, if what the world's greatest investor is doing matters.

I think some of you guys suffer from paralysis from analysis. Some of you seem to care about stuff that doesn't matter to me.

[bluejays]

Almost a $300 drop today on the TSX. Can't hardly wait until Questrade receives my funds, so I can get in on some of this. Waterhouse and McLeod are way too expensive.

[Clarkey]

I think it took me about 2 weeks total to get hooked up on Questrade.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Clarkey

I think it took me about 2 weeks total to get hooked up on Questrade.

I wasn't sure how to send them my drivers license, so I mailed them and got a response saying someone would reply within 2-3 business days. Low and behold, over a week it took. So far, I've sat a few days idle without completing the sign up process, but all in all, it's probably taken 2-3 weeks or so. I just sent over some funds through online banking, so I expect by Tuesday or so, the fun should begin!

[FurnaceFace]

Well, Nov 20 and we're dropping. Looks like Nov 30 came early...

[Slava]

Originally Posted by FurnaceFace

Well, Nov 20 and we're dropping. Looks like Nov 30 came early...

Well what has happened is that a lot of the delevering for the hedge funds has taken place because the institutions had to declare their intentions last week...so I was a little off.

I can't say that I'm thrilled to have seen this coming though...I would be much, much happier to suggest that we were likely to head in the other direction sooner rather than later!

[FurnaceFace]

Ah, soon is all relative. Soon can be a year when talking a 40 year cycle. ;-)

[Ronald Pagan]

I for one take great pleasure in seeing the Hedge Funds get hammered.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

I for one take great pleasure in seeing the Hedge Funds get hammered.

Me too (This might as well be a confession thread post)

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Ronald Pagan

I for one take great pleasure in seeing the Hedge Funds get hammered.

That can only be because you don't see the wider implications?

I take no pleasure in saying that the markets are headed lower....a lot of people are losing a lot of money, which in turn means that they either (A) can't retire (B) will go back to work or (C) will see their already limited income be reduced further.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by fotze

So slava, whens it going up, all I got to believe in, is you or Joe Pesci and he ain't on this board.

While Joe Pesci might be a little more reliable, I would say that sometime in the next 10 years you should see a slight increase!!

[Ronald Pagan]

Originally Posted by Slava

That can only be because you don't see the wider implications?

I take no pleasure in saying that the markets are headed lower....a lot of people are losing a lot of money, which in turn means that they either (A) can't retire (B) will go back to work or (C) will see their already limited income be reduced further.

In my opinion Hedge Funds are one of the reasons ordinary people are losing so much of their wealth.

I don't take pleasure in the market correcting, don't get me wrong. But I do take great satisfaction in seeing one of the most rogue and dangerous segments of the market taking the shortest haircut.

[Slava]

^ I can understand that sentiment, and as someone who certainly doesn't promote these vehicles I don't disagree. I just have a hard time watching people lose money to begin with, and this is a huge amount of money.

[macker]

John Maynard Keynes 2 cents : The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We are only in the 3rd inning here. It is going to get very ugly in the months ahead. Tomorrow could/should be

[Slava]

Originally Posted by macker

John Maynard Keynes 2 cents : The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We are only in the 3rd inning here. It is going to get very ugly in the months ahead. Tomorrow could/should be

I love that Keynes quote...but why do you think there are 6 more innings to come?

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well what has happened is that a lot of the delevering for the hedge funds has taken place because the institutions had to declare their intentions last week...so I was a little off.

I can't say that I'm thrilled to have seen this coming though...I would be much, much happier to suggest that we were likely to head in the other direction sooner rather than later!

You can gloat a little for sure. Not the happy dance kind of gloating. More the 'I knew the flames would get killed by San Jose' kind of gloating.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

You can gloat a little for sure. Not the happy dance kind of gloating. More the 'I knew the flames would get killed by San Jose' kind of gloating.

While I would rather be right than wrong (and potentially cost people a lot of money), there is no gloating here. I know a lot of guys in my industry who are really hurting right now and take absolutely no pleasure in that.

[macker]

Originally Posted by Slava

I love that Keynes quote...but why do you think there are 6 more innings to come?

The $600 Trillion derivatives market will take a long time to deleverage and Bernanke keeps throwing more debt at the problem when debt is the problem. I really believe that the US is being mismanaged currently