New merger could rock Alberta

[Kjesse]

/agree with Thunderball, though I don't think environmental issues are that key, at least not yet. That time will come.

Also, that party probably can't have the "Liberal" moniker attached to it. Its still a bad word in the circles I run with.

And the reason having a Mormon as the leader of a far right party is made an issue is because, a lot of people look for any reason to discredit the "far right", and for whatever reason Mormonism gets a lot of people excited and scared. There have been many Mormons elected to public office and you never hear about it until it gets attached to a "far right" party.

Once you get past the golden plates myth and being told to wear a certain kind of underwear, Mormonism isn't much different from Catholicism, IMHO.

If the "new" merged party is to have any success they'll have to take great strides to avoid being seen as a far right farmer's party. They'll have to get urban, quickly.

Oh yeah, and they should keep that Audrey chick from Stettler far away. She's scary. Oh and anyone named "Byfield" should be asked to not run for a board seat.

[REDVAN]

The only way the Liberals will win a provincial election is if Dave Bronconier runs provincially. I don't like the man, but he seems to do a decent job, and people like him, so I think he might make it at a provincial level. Oh, and he's a liberal as red as they come.

[Thunderball]

You're right Delgar.

I think a good chunk of the first conference for that hypothetical party is deciding on a name that doesn't deter, offend or annoy.

I'd say they'd have to avoid the following terms:
Liberal, Alliance, People's, United, Democratic, Republican

I think to understand why many cringe at evangelical politicians is to understand the difference between mainstream christianity and evangelical christianity. Mainstream Christians abandoned evangelism/conversion a long time ago, where evangelical christians (which includes the Mormon church) put great importance in converting the heathens (I kid), but the point stands. People aren't too concerned about catholic or protestant leaders because expanding the faith isn't a part of theirs, while it is in the evangelical branches. It should be noted that not all churches that have "evangelical" in their names are actually evangelical. The Evangelical Lutheran Church of Canada is not actually evangelical in anyway besides spreading the word of God in church, since its governing body, the Lutheran World Council, is not evangelical.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by ricoFlame

how in the hell is this merger going to rock alberta?

"Rock" was the Sun's term..... But I do like it. It certainly describes what we have been doing at the office all week... "rockin' nonstop"

do you really think that there is going to be a hugh increase in votes for this party? never happen.

Yes, as a matter of fact I do. Is simple mathematics; take one choice off the ballot, the votes go elsewhere.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Delgar

Oh yeah, and they should keep that Audrey chick from Stettler far away. She's scary. .

I have met her; she is a very nice woman. Though I don't think she would approve of my tatoos or that I go to the bar when my husband is out of town.....

[Ford Prefect]

Originally Posted by Cheese

hmmm...only in Alberta? Another conservative horse of a different color? I wonder how many conservative partys a Province can have before its diluted enough to get a Liberal majority?

It the province is Alberta, probably somewhere around 50. The Greens will form a majority in Alberta before the Liberals.

[mrdeeds]

Vote splitting on the Right... I love it. Makes for a more balanced Legislature... in theory.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Cheese

hmmm...only in Alberta? Another conservative horse of a different color? I wonder how many conservative partys a Province can have before its diluted enough to get a Liberal majority?

Doesn't matter until the left actually becomes a legitimate choice for the province. Right now a big challenge is that neither party on that side represents a good alternative and spend more time beating on each other.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by mrdeeds

Vote splitting on the Right... I love it. Makes for a more balanced Legislature... in theory.

We are taking a choice off of the ballot.... it will reduce vote splitting; not add to it.

Besides, if a liberal comes up the middle....how is that different than the current PC's?

[mrdeeds]

The merger to me means a more viable choice on the right which presents more a threat on the right to the PCs than two fringe parties IMO.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Originally Posted by mrdeeds

The merger to me means a more viable choice on the right which presents more a threat on the right to the PCs than two fringe parties IMO.

Except six months from now, there'll be a breakway faction.

And on it goes.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

The next dominant Alberta party is going to look a lot like this:

- Fiscal Conservative

- Socially Moderate/Neutral on personal liberties, harsh on crime. Unwilling to force morals on the citizenry, be it leftist or right wing.

- Substantial Environmental policy with teeth to all Albertans, including First Nations. This policy will be relatively tough, but not economy wrecking.

- Urban focused. Rural issues dominate the PC party, and foolish decisions follow, including mindless nitpicking with the municipalities over funding. Calgary, Edmonton and Fort McMurray are experiencing enormous growth that the Province should be aiding, not hindering. These cities fuel the provincial engine, not Vegreville, Rocky Mountain House and Hanna.

- Willing to take an aggressive stance on public healthcare. Throwing money until the system or the coffers collapse is not health policy, nor is playing chicken with private healthcare that few understand, and in turn ignorantly misinterpret as "US style healthcare" rather than something more European in nature. Focus on preventative healthcare, align premiums with lifestyle choices (like an insurance company), and attract (and retain) the best and brightest for all.

Essentially, if the "Wildrose Alliance" merged with the Liberal Party.

I think that you are dreaming to some extent! Firstly a lot of this looks pretty liberal to me; second there are a lot of seats in rural Alberta and a lot of voters there. The population might shift but if the Tories have their way (and indeed the Alliance or whatever the new party is to be called) they will be looking to add seats there as this is their base of power.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by Ford Prefect

It the province is Alberta, probably somewhere around 50. The Greens will form a majority in Alberta before the Liberals.

Well my friend Id bet ya an even $10 on that offer. As the population of Alberta grows and the urban centres get larger, the tendancy of the population/voters becomes more Liberal. That will be born of a few things...the middle finger of P.E.T. will be forgotten by future generations along with his Governments decision on Oil royalties. More people will move west from Eastern Cities...with them they will bring their political ideals, and unless youve been asleep over the last few decades, youll notice thats "mostly" Liberal.
Now this is being simplistic for the most part, their will be other determining factors involved, but I think that the Liberals will take power in Alberta with a leader that is more dynamic....Bronconnier or not. Eventually that leader will step up and with a choice of voting for a dynamic person or Stelmach there will be change.
The Wildrose Party, Socreds, Alliance, and any other Conservative party who wants a piece of the pie, no matter how far right, will only do one thing...suck votes away from the mainstream Conservatives, allowing a change. The same thing happened federally when Alberta's Reform Party led by the preacher, Preston Manning, sucked votes away for years. It was a dream made in political heaven for the National Liberals....not to mention the idiocy of the Reform/Alliance themselves. When you align yourself to one side of the spectrum you will always alienate someone else and they will either create issues for you by being vocal about it, or simply make their own plans as Reggie mentioned above.

[Ford Prefect]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Well my friend Id bet ya an even $10 on that offer. ...

Okay so 50 is being rather hyperbolic, but I can assure you that the right will have to really splinter before the Liberals are ever elected in Alberta. I'm not stating that as an anti-Liberal either. I'm stating that as a life-time third generation Albertan and I assure you that the changing urban political demographics haven't resulted in a Liberalization of the province. On the contrary, it seems that when residents from other provinces move here they invariably wind up either being or becoming right wing voters. I'm not sure if that's because newcomers to Alberta tend to be right leaning to begin with, or whether they become assimilated by the "Borg" after they arrive. Whichever, in my 30 years of voting in Alberta I haven't seen a Liberalization of the electorate here due to urbanization or an influx of Liberal voters from other provinces ... and there's been three booms and accompanying population bursts during that time.

On the other hand, if you're wagering that the Liberals will be elected to a majority in Alberta before the Greens ever will, I'll take that bet. I'll even give you 2 to 1 odds. Albertans are greener than people realize. Also, check the popular vote statistics from the last two or three federal elections. I think you'll be surprised to see which province has produced the highest percentage of the popular vote for the Green Party. I know it was Alberta in the second last election ... and I think Alberta was either highest or second highest in the last election. So I can definitely see the Greens getting elected in Alberta sooner than the Liberals ... they have more growth potential. Although I don't seriously expect either the Greens or the Lib's will ever actually get elected in Alberta.

The exception to this might be if the Liberals could find a strong leader, as you've mentioned. I don't think Bronconnier is that guy though. He's been a good mayor because he fights hard for Calgary, something I always thought Duer didn't do enough of. Outside of Calgary he's seen as a bit of a whining sniveler though and I doubt he has what it takes to unite and excite either the Liberal party or the electorate. Also, strong leaders in the past haven't been enough to get the job done. Nick Taylor was a pretty darn good leader for the Liberals, and so was Lawrence Decor, but neither of them got the job done. Going way back, Grant Notley was probably the finest politician Alberta has ever produced, but that wasn't enough to make a difference for the NDP. Sure, times change, but I haven't seen any evidence that changing times have produced a left leaning electorate in Alberta as you hypothesize. Until I see poll numbers to support such a shift, I will remain skeptical.

(FWIW, I'm a Green supporter).

[Slava]

Cheese has his analysis bang on. As more people move here from the East it becomes more ingrained that voting Liberal (or NDP for that matter) is not such a terrible thing. When you look at 3 Calgary ridings going Liberal last election, and then another in a byelection this summer you can bet that things are changing here!

In a campaign that I'm working on, we've been on the doorsteps for months now and the reception has been anything but cold. The politics of the right do not play as well to the young professional as people would have you believe.

[Thunderball]

I respectfully disagree with Cheese on this one and agree with Ford Prefect.

Yes, people are migrating, and they bring their ideas with them, but that doesn't mean their ideas stick with them. Sometimes coming into a new environment changes one's opinions. Its been happening since Alberta was an idea on a map to split up the Northwest Territory. Alberta has always had a fierce libertarian, independant, conservative streak... and it always will. The difference is that society is becoming increasingly urban and the PRIORITIES are changing, not the mentality. Yes, Alberta is slowly growing out of its powerful (but never widespread) religious morality police, but that doesn't mean the values of the right of centre voter are less prevalent.

The current progressive conservative party holds priorities of a rural minded province. This is growing unpopular, and liberals didn't win seats in Calgary because left of centre policy became popular... it was done for two reasons... one, a protest that the city is displeased and two, the Liberal platform is more urban friendly, even if the ideology is wrong to the majority. Its not that young professionals (for example) aren't inherently fiscally conservative... its that the current right of centre parties speak for angry farmers and concerned bible thumpers more than it does to the businessmen, professionals and urban dwellers (be it white or blue collar).

What the province needs is a progressive conservative party with urban priorities and sensibilities. It doesn't mean fiscal liberalism is growing popular as it has in other parts of the country where these people moved from. In fact, most people come to Alberta because the economy is good, and pre-Stelmach, prided itself on being business friendly.

Also, to Slava... Alberta has always had a "rule of two" electoral mentality. Win two of Calgary, Edmonton or the rural/small centres and you win a majority. What this hypothetical party would do is strive to do what most parties in the past couldn't. Advocate to Calgary and Edmonton primarily, Ft. Mac, Lethbridge, Red Deer, etc. second, and the towns and farmers last. Most strategists in Alberta believed you couldn't dominate Calgary and Edmonton because of the inherent rivalry, so they appealed to the rural vote to swing them in. I propose that the time has come that Calgary and Edmonton are both sufficiently motivated to vote the rural agenda out and would support the same centrist/right of centre urban minded party.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by Slava

In a campaign that I'm working on, we've been on the doorsteps for months now and the reception has been anything but cold. The politics of the right do not play as well to the young professional as people would have you believe.

Young professionals care about money. Any hint of churchiness, griping about gay marriage, abortion, separation or a few other things will turn most of them off right away.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Slava

Cheese has his analysis bang on. As more people move here from the East it becomes more ingrained that voting Liberal (or NDP for that matter) is not such a terrible thing. When you look at 3 Calgary ridings going Liberal last election, and then another in a byelection this summer you can bet that things are changing here!

In a campaign that I'm working on, we've been on the doorsteps for months now and the reception has been anything but cold. The politics of the right do not play as well to the young professional as people would have you believe.

That would be great if it were a proportional representative system that we were using but considering that a bulk of the seats still come from the rural areas and the minimal impact that these Easterners have in these areas I am not sure Alberta is in any threat from a Liberal government anytime soon.

Also, there is a big difference from getting a good reception on doorsteps and tangible results at the polls. Canadians still are pretty lousy when it comes to turnout and many of those young professionals that talk about changing the right wing climate here seem to prefer to go out for another martini or make another ten bucks than stop by a polling station.

It will be interesting to see how the next election goes with Stelmach doing a bang up job of running the PC's into the ground but the Liberals and other parties still have a long way to go before they can even be considered respectable let alone a real threat.

[Slava]

I agree with you moon, except that my point is the changing face of Calgary and Alberta. Last time that change cost the Tories three seats in Calgary, and I would wager that it would cost them another couple this time around.

Its not that I think that there will be a Liberal majority anytime soon, but it is becoming more and more acceptable to vote for parties other than the right wingers.

I agree that a reception on a door-step is not a reason to celebrate...but it is a strong indication of how people are feeling at the time.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by moon

Also, there is a big difference from getting a good reception on doorsteps and tangible results at the polls. Canadians still are pretty lousy when it comes to turnout and many of those young professionals that talk about changing the right wing climate here seem to prefer to go out for another martini or make another ten bucks than stop by a polling station.

Until there is a reason to vote...when given that reason, change inevitably happens.