Conservative Throne Speech Leaked - details

[the_only_turek_fan]

Just listening to QR77, and there are some rumors going around that Dion might vote against the speech.

Looks like he is going to use Kyoto as his justification.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Just listening to QR77, and there are some rumors going around that Dion might vote against the speech.

Looks like he is going to use Kyoto as his justification.

I have no doubt that he's going to vote against it, I also have no doubt that there are going to be a lot of Liberal's with doctors appointments happening at the same time as the vote.

The Liberal's right now would lose an election, and lose it badly, they're going to be like the reform party from years ago that prefered to fight each other as oppossed to fighting another party. But Dion has to find a way to hold onto Kyoto, its his only effective platform right now.

If I was going into politics to be honest, I would run as an NDP'er, there's not pressure to win an election, or govern a country. There's no need to develope any kind of platform or strategy, all you have to do is scream counter to the siting government and your golden.

[mykalberta]

Dion is a brave man if he believes that Kyoto is a vote grabber, it will be interesting. Its a good play to steal votes from the NDP. Not sure how well the idea does outside of Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver.

[Burninator]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The Liberal's right now would lose an election, and lose it badly, they're going to be like the reform party from years ago that prefered to fight each other as oppossed to fighting another party. But Dion has to find a way to hold onto Kyoto, its his only effective platform right now.

You think if parliament dissolved that the Cons would win a majority? I don't doubt that the Cons would win a minority government over the Libs, but I haven't read anywhere that said the Cons have enough support to take a full government.

[Ford Prefect]

Jack Layton puzzles me. I can't decide which he reminds me of more ... a Chihuahua or a low grade porn actor. The yappy, meaningless noises he makes remind me of a Chihuahua, but that 'stache he has comes straight out of a cheesy porn movie.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Burninator

You think if parliament dissolved that the Cons would win a majority? I don't doubt that the Cons would win a minority government over the Libs, but I haven't read anywhere that said the Cons have enough support to take a full government.

I didn't say that it would be a majority, I said that the Liberal's right now would get pummeled.

The Liberal's will lose seats that will be picked up by the NDP, possibly the Greens and the Bloc who have positioned themselves nicely.

But I believe that the Conservative's would pick up some more seats but still be in a minority situation.

Even as a conservative, I'd still prefer to see a minority government as long as it can function.

[KAI]

Originally Posted by fotze

Yes, about time I got my fair share.

What exactly is your "fare share".

[KAI]

Originally Posted by Burninator

You think if parliament dissolved that the Cons would win a majority? I don't doubt that the Cons would win a minority government over the Libs, but I haven't read anywhere that said the Cons have enough support to take a full government.

Latest polls have the conservatives at just below 40 % (i'll find a link) Which is enough to get the majority.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ford Prefect

Jack Layton puzzles me. I can't decide which he reminds me of more ... a Chihuahua or a low grade porn actor. The yappy, meaningless noises he makes remind me of a Chihuahua, but that 'stache he has comes straight out of a cheesy porn movie.

To me he reminds me of a used car salesman, trying to hide a bad engine under a shiney coat of wax.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by KAI

Latest polls have the conservatives at just below 40 % (i'll find a link) Which is enough to get the majority.

And if the government falls that will likely increase initially. However we've all seen that poll accuracy isn't reliable at the best of times.

[KAI]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I didn't say that it would be a majority, I said that the Liberal's right now would get pummeled.

The Liberal's will lose seats that will be picked up by the NDP, possibly the Greens and the Bloc who have positioned themselves nicely.

But I believe that the Conservative's would pick up some more seats but still be in a minority situation.

Even as a conservative, I'd still prefer to see a minority government as long as it can function.

I disagree, I am not a conservative but if i were i would not want to see another minority government because in such a situation there would be no way anyone would be willing to go to the polls for at least 2 years. That would mean the conservatives would have to find support from one or more of the other parties. It is unlikely that the NDP or liberals would prop up the government so that leaves the Block. And i don't think any good can come from a seperatest part proping up a national party for any extended period of time.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by KAI

Latest polls have the conservatives at just below 40 % (i'll find a link) Which is enough to get the majority.

Well that depends on the concentration of the voters. If the additional 5% is in Calgary then it makes no difference...this is the distortion of the electoral system.

I do think that the Liberals will vote against the throne speech...I just think that they will not have enough MP's present to cause the government to fall.

[KAI]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

And if the government falls that will likely increase initially. However we've all seen that poll accuracy isn't reliable at the best of times.

True enough, but the liberals are not in very good cercumstances right now. Support for the conservatives is steadily increasing they face a divided party where members are getting ready for another leadership rase rather than a national election, and Dion can't seem to get a possitive spin in the media.

IMO the conservatives would be more than willing to go to the polls and the throne speach will be a lot less reserved (which is already seen in the leaks that came out) then the last time arpound.

[KAI]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well that depends on the concentration of the voters. If the additional 5% is in Calgary then it makes no difference...this is the distortion of the electoral system.

I do think that the Liberals will vote against the throne speech...I just think that they will not have enough MP's present to cause the government to fall.

I understand the canadian electoral system but there is no way that the additional 5 % could come fro Calgary. The city is already a strong conservative area and the population is not large enough to sway a national poll by 5%.
Based on past experiences 40 % in the polls will get you a majority in governemnt. It is not perfect but the assumption can be made.

[CaptainCrunch]

[quote=Slava;1032244
I do think that the Liberals will vote against the throne speech...I just think that they will not have enough MP's present to cause the government to fall.[/quote]

Thats the only real strategy thats open to Dion right now, the issue is that doing it is going to cause a huge backlash by Liberal supporters against Dion as its a very weak move in the face of a gauntlet throw by the Conservatives.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by KAI

I understand the canadian electoral system but there is no way that the additional 5 % could come fro Calgary. The city is already a strong conservative area and the population is not large enough to sway a national poll by 5%.
Based on past experiences 40 % in the polls will get you a majority in governemnt. It is not perfect but the assumption can be made.

My point is not that the five percent came from Calgary...I'm saying that if you gain in ridings that you already win then its a moot point. You could easily gain 5pts nationally and not win another riding.

I understand that 40% is enough to form a majority...but winning 38% while your opponent has 36% is also enough to be the official opposition depending on the distribution of the votes.

Anyway...I'm not saying that the Conservatives can't form a majority...just pointing out the flaws with the polling.

[KAI]

Originally Posted by fotze

Exactly. I seem to remember the conservative having a greater percentage of the entire Canadian vote yet the liberals winning a majority government.

When exactly did that happen?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by KAI

When exactly did that happen?

That has happened in BC in the last 8-10 years for sure. The Liberals did not have the majority of the votes, but still formed a majority.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I didn't say that it would be a majority, I said that the Liberal's right now would get pummeled.

The Liberal's will lose seats that will be picked up by the NDP, possibly the Greens and the Bloc who have positioned themselves nicely.

But I believe that the Conservative's would pick up some more seats but still be in a minority situation.

Even as a conservative, I'd still prefer to see a minority government as long as it can function.

Problem is that the Libs are blocking bills just for the sake of being the opposition.

All the bills that Harper is trying to pass make sense:
Less personal/business taxes, 5% GST. Yes!
Canada saying no to Kyoto. Yes!! (Although they are still going to cut emissions)
Tough on crime laws. YES!!!!

Harper is doing a good job, and that is going to make it tough for the Libs to win an election. All of the above along with trying to reform the Senate are all things that make sense! The only thing that Harper has screwed up on is Income Trusts.

I wonder if they smell blood and are going to try and get the majority they deserve.

[Slava]

Harper already closed this door though; he can't dissolve parliament at his own accord anymore because he passed legislation saying that he will govern until 2009 unless he loses a confidence vote.