Who is winning the election?

[octothorp]

This apparently from Republican pollster Frank Luntz:

Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry
Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4

There hasn't been a single piece of good news yet for Bush, except that these results are very preliminary and unofficial. His exit polling is worse than the pre-election polls in just about every state, even those he'll win easily.

[Cowperson]

I said Kerry would win in the prediction thread because all these polls were missing the impact of new voters and cell phone users. Some pundit a few weeks ago said Bush needed to be over 50% in the real polls or these "hidden" voters would bite him in the butt.

Cowperson

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Let's not get excited here folks. I would like to point out that Gore had an early 3 point lead in Florida in 2000, and we know how that turned out. Having said that, indications were that the absentee votes went heavily to Kerry, so Bush has some ground to make up there as well. It looks good for Kerry, but don't start dancing until the fat lady sings.

[octothorp]

Just a note about the exit polls. Apparently there are fundamental errors with the exit polls in Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Pennsylvania and Virginia. So the overwhelmingly pro-Kerry numbers that we're seeing may be caused by these issues.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald@Nov 2 2004, 11:08 PM
Let's not get excited here folks. I would like to point out that Gore had an early 3 point lead in Florida in 2000, and we know how that turned out. Having said that, indications were that the absentee votes went heavily to Kerry, so Bush has some ground to make up there as well. It looks good for Kerry, but don't start dancing until the fat lady sings.

Well said. I think instead of the fat lady we are waiting for Fox News to sing.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally posted by octothorp@Nov 2 2004, 11:09 PM
Just a note about the exit polls. Apparently there are fundamental errors with the exit polls in Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Pennsylvania and Virginia. So the overwhelmingly pro-Kerry numbers that we're seeing may be caused by these issues.

What the hell is a "fundamental" error?

[Bingo]

The Drudge just put this up ...

TIGHTENING: KERRY, BUSH TIED IN OHIO SHOWDOWN, EXITS; KERRY +2 IN FLORIDA

Sounds like things are getting a little more tight.

Either way, I think we can all agree it will nice to put this behind us!

[La Flames Fan]

Across all networks, there are reports problems are very few and far between and its going very smoothly. Not fundamental.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally posted by Bingo@Nov 2 2004, 11:25 PM
The Drudge just put this up ...

TIGHTENING: KERRY, BUSH TIED IN OHIO SHOWDOWN, EXITS; KERRY +2 IN FLORIDA

Sounds like things are getting a little more tight.

Either way, I think we can all agree it will nice to put this behind us!

I know that none of the major media sources aren't reporting much, but Drudge as a source? I have my virtual bird cage lined with that virtual fish wrap. Its the Washington Times crossed with the National Enquirer! Ugh!

[Displaced Flames fan]

Let's hope the networks are a little more disciplined in projecting winners in states than they have been in the past tonight.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald+Nov 2 2004, 11:20 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Lanny_MacDonald @ Nov 2 2004, 11:20 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-octothorp@Nov 2 2004, 11:09 PM
Just a note about the exit polls. Apparently there are fundamental errors with the exit polls in Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Pennsylvania and Virginia. So the overwhelmingly pro-Kerry numbers that we're seeing may be caused by these issues.

What the hell is a "fundamental" error? [/b][/quote]
Well, I've heard that some of the early exit polls from 2000 that the Dems took and had Gore up were skewed with 59% female pollees (is that a word?). That would be a fundamental error.

I wish they wouldn't do exit polls at all. Let's just let them count and watch as they come in.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

I agree Dis. Exit polls are so damn confusing and biased. I know of one instance where a guy was walking by and made a snide comment in regards to who he voted for and the pollster maked him down as a Kerry voter (obviously Republican pollsters). You never know until the votes are in.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally posted by Lanny_MacDonald@Nov 2 2004, 11:43 PM
I agree Dis. Exit polls are so damn confusing and biased. I know of one instance where a guy was walking by and made a snide comment in regards to who he voted for and the pollster maked him down as a Kerry voter (obviously Republican pollsters). You never know until the votes are in.

and really, what's the purpose of them? They serve no useful purpose.

[calf]

CNN's projecting Bush has 34 EC votes, Kerry 3 thus far.

Something tells me it might change...seeing how the polls closed about 1 minute ago

[calf]

Originally posted by fotze+Nov 2 2004, 06:13 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (fotze @ Nov 2 2004, 06:13 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-calf@Nov 2 2004, 05:02 PM
CNN's projecting Bush has 34 EC votes, Kerry 3 thus far.

Something tells me it might change...seeing how the polls closed about 1 minute ago

I don't think that necessarily means he's running away with it. The 'no sh*t bush won' states include those. I am learning alot in watching the coverage. Tonnes of assumptions are made in the projections, but reasonable ones usually. [/b][/quote]
Oh yeah, I don't think it means anything either...just relaying what they have thus far

[RougeUnderoos]

Ted Kennedy practically declares a Kerry victory. Pretty dumb move as it's 4:30 in the afternoon on the west coast.

[Bertuzzied]

49-3 for Bush now.


Popular Vote 1% of Precincts Reporting (AP)

George W. Bush 57% 636,602

John Kerry 42% 475,536

[arsenal]

Current Electoral College from www.electoral-vote.com:
Kerry 262 Bush 261

Strong Kerry (146)
Weak Kerry (79)
Barely Kerry (37)
Exactly tied (15)
Barely Bush (56)
Weak Bush (48)
Strong Bush (157)

[Bertuzzied]

Turn around time
Kerry 77 Bush 66


Kerry
1,548,748 (42% total)
BUSH
2,082,026 (57% total)

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally posted by fotze@Nov 3 2004, 01:03 AM
Geez, 60,000 americans live in Calgary. I knew their was a distinct bad smell lately, eh Dis?

Are those electoral college numbers (i.e. Vermont is worth 3) based purely on population?

No.

Each state has 2 electoral votes. Whatever else they have is based purely on population.

It mirrors the representation in Congress.