05-13-2007, 09:07 AM
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#21
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Ben
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: God's Country (aka Cape Breton Island)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddie Bronze
Someone quickly give Jon negative rep and ban him now!!!
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hahaha hey it's a great place, I love it here
__________________
"Calgary Flames is the best team in all the land" - My Brainwashed Son
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05-13-2007, 10:54 AM
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#22
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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I agree, it's always possible The biggest single risk to our economy is the federal government. I just hope they understand that Alberta such a huge part of the country's economy at this point that killing it off would be suicide. But that didn't stop them last time.
I just wanted to see what his answer would be
I think it's entirely possible to make the oil sands much cleaner, they just have to do it in such a way that gives the companies a chance to comply (ie bring in the standards over a time frame).
Quote:
Originally Posted by teamchachi
How about the rest of the country getting jealous of our ridiculous oil revenues and supporting Ottawa in hitting Alberta with NEP V2? That would do it.
Or they could just effectively shut down the oil sands by slapping all sorts of anti-CO2 emissions regulation on it. Then deny the province the option of using nuclear, even though Ontario is crawling with reactors...
There's lots of stuff that could go wrong, and it could happen pretty fast. Most of you are too young to remember the 18% interest rates in 1981, and the tsunami of foreclosures and bankruptcies. It could easily happen again. Just imagine a 1929 style stock market crash, in combination with a US dollar falling like a rock. Put all of Calgary's stock options under water, then jack the interest rates and PRESTO!!!
Good times. Not saying its going to happen. But it could...
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__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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05-13-2007, 11:33 AM
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#23
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Sector 7-G
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy
Oracle's reference to "good government" must be in reference to "Do Nothing Duerr". His lack of leadership and exceptional skill at staying under the radar and sitting on the fence put Calgary years behind in infrastructure development.
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In all fairness, this was during the era of "Chainsaw Ralph" and his budget slashing ways. Bronco an Klein as mayor are/were willing to spend us back into the 80's...
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05-13-2007, 03:45 PM
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#24
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Not a casual user
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: A simple man leading a complicated life....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy
Oracle's reference to "good government" must be in reference to "Do Nothing Duerr". His lack of leadership and exceptional skill at staying under the radar and sitting on the fence put Calgary years behind in infrastructure development.
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Duerr had no foresight! He was sooooo busy keeping taxes down and trying to come across as the nice guy. And with our infrastructure in disarry his nice guy image has put the city into a deep hole that will take years to catch up.
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05-13-2007, 04:51 PM
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#25
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: City by the Bay
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dion
Duerr had no foresight! He was sooooo busy keeping taxes down and trying to come across as the nice guy. And with our infrastructure in disarry his nice guy image has put the city into a deep hole that will take years to catch up.
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Exactly - Im not a big Bronconnier fan, but he doesnt deserve the criticism he receives for spending and construction. Calgary's infastructure in still 8-10 years behind, according to my uncle who part of the city planning committee.
Aside from the ring road (which was hung up on negotiations with the native bands), the improvement throughout Calgary is overdue. Duerr was a dumb that played it safe and didnt try to implement anything new or make Calgary better.
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05-13-2007, 05:03 PM
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#26
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Farm Team Player
Join Date: May 2007
Exp: 
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The boom creates the bust... that's one one of my Finance profs claimed. In good times, it is easier to raise capital and easier to justify spending on big projects because that's what's everyone else is doing. Companies undertake investments that they wouldn't in normal times, many of these eventually turn out to be bum deals and it hits the bottom line. Overcapacity, losses, recession, layoffs...
People blame the '80s recession on the NEP, but oil producing regions everywhere were hurting in the '80s. It was the huge expansion in capacity and new reserves that did everyone in. What could do everyone in now? How about a recession in China? Kyoto?
Don't get too hung up on the "good government" comment. Besides, even if the city is 10 years behind on infrastructure projects, now is the wrong time to play catch up. The resources just aren't out there right now to do these projects, and what resources are available, the city has to pay through the nose to get them. In fact, I wish they'd cancelled a couple of the road projects and just focussed on getting the major ones done in a timely fashion.
Did you know that our provincial government recently claimed that it's too late to increase royalties because the boom is over... do they know something we don't?
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05-13-2007, 05:26 PM
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#27
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: City by the Bay
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OracleOfCalgary
Don't get too hung up on the "good government" comment. Besides, even if the city is 10 years behind on infrastructure projects, now is the wrong time to play catch up. The resources just aren't out there right now to do these projects, and what resources are available, the city has to pay through the nose to get them. In fact, I wish they'd cancelled a couple of the road projects and just focussed on getting the major ones done in a timely fashion.
Did you know that our provincial government recently claimed that it's too late to increase royalties because the boom is over... do they know something we don't?
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Perhaps, but the city cannot wait any longer. The projects were desperately needed and there should be several more major ones undertaken.
The provincial government may know something we dont... or they are as dysfunctional and mismanaged as ever. Easy Eddie...
The "boom creates the bust" is so profound...you mean the economy is cyclical? The boom is incredible, but I dont think the bust is imminent or as dramatic as feared. I think stabilizing is a more accurate description.
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05-13-2007, 08:24 PM
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#28
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Draft Pick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames in 07
Most homebuilders aren't making a killing, in fact many projects have been well below targets, they have to buy expensive land as well.
I don't get why everyone equates strong economy with imbending doom. in the 80's the oil industry had it's run because of a artificial restriction of supply. Now, it is real supply restraints, but more importantly a huge demand is straining that supply. Alberta has the largest or second largest oil reserve on the planet. In some respects this IS the center of the economic universe. Land isn't overvalued, it was undervalued for a decade until now.
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Alberta definitely doesn't have the largest oil reserves on the planet. That's why I brought up the extremely overlooked Russia.
I don't equate strong economy with impending doom, but singular economy.
This ISN'T the center of the economic universe, but it's being sold as such.
It's a volatile market, hanging your hat on a volatile market is a prelude to having the rug swept out.
Land was undervalued? We live in the 2nd largest country in the world. With just 40 millionish people. Land is overvalued based on present economy. Let's compare Texas, a population of 23 million on the books, and a stable oil and gas economy. $200,000 gets you a seriously comfortable abode with a pretty good lot size in and around Houston. In Calgary, it gets you a crappy townhouse, err, condo, in a very average, if not below average neighbourhood. We are definitely playing with fire. Banks extend mortgage terms beyond 25 years. Why is that? Because banks are such good friends I suppose?
I hope everyone here will at least consider the possibilities before mortgaging their entire future on the right now, is what I really hope to get across.
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05-13-2007, 08:35 PM
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#29
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Wow there are some really negative people in this thread! While I agree that things cannot continue on this trend forever, the fact remains that the global demand for oil is still high. This province and its economy run on oil.
I thnk that we'll see things slow a little over the next couple of years, but that doesn't mean doom and gloom. Besides, you never know when someone somewhere invades Iran and the price of oil breaks $100/barrel. Once that happens and we are a secure location for oil then we'll see a huge boom here.
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05-13-2007, 08:51 PM
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#30
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Redundant Minister of Redundancy Self-Banned
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Speaking of Russia, did anyone notice the pipe deal signed between Russia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan? But I'm sure it won't effect us. After all this boom will go on forever. And even if it doesn't I'm sure the decline will be gradual and easily handled.
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05-13-2007, 08:55 PM
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#31
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crunch
Alberta definitely doesn't have the largest oil reserves on the planet. That's why I brought up the extremely overlooked Russia.
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Land was undervalued? We live in the 2nd largest country in the world. With just 40 millionish people. Land is overvalued based on present economy.
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But Alberta has over 50% of the world's reserves in economically and politically stable countries. Sure Venezuela has lots of reserves, but Chávez recently made all the oil and gas state run, who wants to deal with him?
Not saying Alberta is the only place, but it is still a very attractive place for oil and gas development.
Sure land is overvalued if you divide area by population.. but that's not how value is determined. Alberta is still inexpensive compared to other areas in the world.
Banks offer products that meet customer's needs. Other places have much "worse" products for home ownership than a 30 year mortgage.
But I agree with you in that people should not be buying right up to their limits.. best case scenario is they are stuck with a property that has a mortgage more than its worth and then they're immobilized until values catch up again. Worst case is they're wiped out. No one should buy something right at the edge of their ability.
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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05-13-2007, 09:01 PM
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#32
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
But Alberta has over 50% of the world's reserves in economically and politically stable countries. Sure Venezuela has lots of reserves, but Chávez recently made all the oil and gas state run, who wants to deal with him?
Not saying Alberta is the only place, but it is still a very attractive place for oil and gas development.
Sure land is overvalued if you divide area by population.. but that's not how value is determined. Alberta is still inexpensive compared to other areas in the world.
Banks offer products that meet customer's needs. Other places have much "worse" products for home ownership than a 30 year mortgage.
But I agree with you in that people should not be buying right up to their limits.. best case scenario is they are stuck with a property that has a mortgage more than its worth and then they're immobilized until values catch up again. Worst case is they're wiped out. No one should buy something right at the edge of their ability.
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Noone is exactly sure how much oil is in the tarsands, but it is definately more than Russia has. Higher estimates put it up as the second biggest reserve behind those in Saudi Arabia. It may be lower than Venezuela and Iraq but probably not likely.
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05-13-2007, 09:05 PM
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#33
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrusaderPi
Speaking of Russia, did anyone notice the pipe deal signed between Russia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan? But I'm sure it won't effect us. After all this boom will go on forever. And even if it doesn't I'm sure the decline will be gradual and easily handled.
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How much gas does that pipline handle? How does that compare to Alberta's gas production? How will that impact gas producers here?
Honest questions, if we want to understand the impact of something on our economy, we have to know the info, and I hadn't heard of this pipeline.
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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05-13-2007, 09:13 PM
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#34
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crunch
Alberta definitely doesn't have the largest oil reserves on the planet. That's why I brought up the extremely overlooked Russia.
I don't equate strong economy with impending doom, but singular economy.
This ISN'T the center of the economic universe, but it's being sold as such.
It's a volatile market, hanging your hat on a volatile market is a prelude to having the rug swept out.
Land was undervalued? We live in the 2nd largest country in the world. With just 40 millionish people. Land is overvalued based on present economy. Let's compare Texas, a population of 23 million on the books, and a stable oil and gas economy. $200,000 gets you a seriously comfortable abode with a pretty good lot size in and around Houston. In Calgary, it gets you a crappy townhouse, err, condo, in a very average, if not below average neighbourhood. We are definitely playing with fire. Banks extend mortgage terms beyond 25 years. Why is that? Because banks are such good friends I suppose?
I hope everyone here will at least consider the possibilities before mortgaging their entire future on the right now, is what I really hope to get across.
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Houston is apples and oranges. Ask any real estate agent in Houston and they'll tell you as such. There is no zoning in Houston, anyone can build anything, anywhere, plus they have decent a freeway infrastructure so you can go live 15 miles away and move around 'reasonably' easily. It's a little disingenuous to compare Houston real estate to anything.
BTW, who cares how big Canada is? What does that have to do with land value in Calgary? Calgary has more millionaires per capita than most places, road infrastructure is poor and the zoning doesn't (historically anyway) allow for much density ... therefore not much supply in desireable locations.
As comparing russian reserves, that is apples and oranges to. People don't invest in Russia becuase it is unstable ... In fact when you consider security of investments Alberta is probably the most popular target on the planet right now (not Canada ... thanks to Danny Williams, but Alberta anyway)
If people want to live their life scared of the next recession that is fine, but they have missed out on making the easiest money they could ever make.
Last edited by Flames in 07; 05-13-2007 at 09:16 PM.
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05-13-2007, 09:21 PM
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#35
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Draft Pick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
Wow there are some really negative people in this thread! While I agree that things cannot continue on this trend forever, the fact remains that the global demand for oil is still high. This province and its economy run on oil.
I thnk that we'll see things slow a little over the next couple of years, but that doesn't mean doom and gloom. Besides, you never know when someone somewhere invades Iran and the price of oil breaks $100/barrel. Once that happens and we are a secure location for oil then we'll see a huge boom here.
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To speak against the status quo bemoans negativity only if you simply gain your facts from local media.
No one, no where, is going to invade Iran. Should that happen, it would disturb a very intricate balance where we should worry about things outside of the price of oil. No one wants the very hint of imperialist intentions. This is exactly why Iran not only pushes the envelope, but licks the stamp.
Russia is buying up a lot of European facilities. They have made some very powerful strokes to their benefit.
It's a big world.
Alberta's a stable place to do business, much in the same context as China and Russia have better infrastructure than India for R&D.
We shouldn't overestimate ourselves on a global scale. Rather, we should be deciding what's best for us. That isn't negative, is it??
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05-13-2007, 09:25 PM
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#36
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Redundant Minister of Redundancy Self-Banned
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
How much gas does that pipline handle? How does that compare to Alberta's gas production? How will that impact gas producers here?
Honest questions, if we want to understand the impact of something on our economy, we have to know the info, and I hadn't heard of this pipeline.
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Details haven't been finalized. The main concern is all the gas and oil in Turkmenistan and Kazkhstan now goes through Russia.
I don't want to turn a discussion I don't have all the answers to into an 'us versus them' thing. The point is, the more oil and gas the Russians control, the more control they have over prices worldwide. If Russia decided to turn off the taps to Europe (again) it would damage the world economy.
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05-13-2007, 09:33 PM
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#37
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Draft Pick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames in 07
Houston is apples and oranges. Ask any real estate agent in Houston and they'll tell you as such. There is no zoning in Houston, anyone can build anything, anywhere, plus they have decent a freeway infrastructure so you can go live 15 miles away and move around 'reasonably' easily. It's a little disingenuous to compare Houston real estate to anything.
BTW, who cares how big Canada is? What does that have to do with land value in Calgary? Calgary has more millionaires per capita than most places, road infrastructure is poor and the zoning doesn't (historically anyway) allow for much density ... therefore not much supply in desireable locations.
As comparing russian reserves, that is apples and oranges to. People don't invest in Russia becuase it is unstable ... In fact when you consider security of investments Alberta is probably the most popular target on the planet right now (not Canada ... thanks to Danny Williams, but Alberta anyway)
If people want to live their life scared of the next recession that is fine, but they have missed out on making the easiest money they could ever make.
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Disingenuous huh...I got that feeling from your first post.
Not a realtor are you...
Your last paragraph belies any argument you're trying to make.
I'm not fearmongering, I'm just not into inflating my profits at the risk of others. Which, again, your last paragraph is highly suspect vs. intent.
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05-13-2007, 09:49 PM
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#38
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Farm Team Player
Join Date: May 2007
Exp: 
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Who are you kidding... Calgary is a developers paradise. This is the city in which they are allowed to develop the smallest sized lots of any major city in North America. There is tons of new land coming on line and I happen to know of at least one of these new communities of entry level homes where they have tons of lots but no buyers. Lets also not forget the huge swaths of new land that were recently absorbed into the city.
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05-13-2007, 09:52 PM
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#39
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#1 Goaltender
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Not a realtor, saw the writing on the wall, bought a couple condos, sold them at possetion. Never will make easier money. That's where the last sentance comes from. If I thought like you, would not have made a dime. Simple as that.
Any of these comments false to you?
Comparing Investment into AB energy and Russia is apples vs oranges because of the security of the capital
Comparing Calgary real estate to Houston real estate is apples vs oranges because of freeway infrastructure and a lack of zoning in Houston
The size of the country Calgary happens to be in has no effect on the value of Real Estate inside the City of Calgary.
If any of these are true, I'd love to hear why. If they are false, I'd love to hear why you made post #28
Last edited by Flames in 07; 05-13-2007 at 09:54 PM.
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05-13-2007, 09:52 PM
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#40
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crunch
It should be noted that the Russians hold most of the cards on oil prices. If you haven't noticed, the US is starting to take a tougher stance on Russia.
When Russia decides that they won't be bullied, look out. They could easily wash out the supply vs demand on oil and collapse the market.
As for what's happening in Alberta, homebuilders are making a killing. If the govt were actually good, they'd be looking out for the people, which they are not. It's become a free-for-all cash grab province, come one, come all. With absolutely no concern for the future. These booms don't last forever, and this one looks like all of the others. In the end, everyone stands around wondering "so..but...if...when...". At this point, a total disregard for managing a booming economy will be highlighted. Inflation is exorbitant in Alberta, when that becomes apparent, there are a whole lot of homeowners that will be down and out. I wish 1st time homebuyers would become more wary of that. The market seriously needs to come down.
Right now, everyone's smiling....and kidding themselves.
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Care to elaborate?
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff
If the NHL ever needs an enema, Edmonton is where they'll insert it.
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