What's a rebuild anyway?

[Robbob]

I agree. If the Flames are picking 5 years in the top ten then it tells me they didn't get that impact player at the top of the draft.

[Inferno]

Drafting is just one part of a rebuild too.

There's developing the young players you currently have and bringing in new players to compliment those young players. It's changing the identity of your team.

[Ashes]

Bradley's Biggle --> Maloney's RE-Biggle --> Eventual Full Rebuild --> Win


Brad Tre decided not to rebiggle, and traded Tkachuk for vets/signed Kadri in FA and we tried to compete.
Maloney says he doesn't want to rebiggle but seems like it's happening anyway, but it's not yet a true rebiggle until remaining vets (Andersson, Coleman, Kadri) are traded.
Eventually with a top 5 pick (hopefully this year and next) we can effectively say its a full rebuild.
Then we take those picks and other young players and compete for a cup after a year or two of growth.

I feel like we're between steps two and three right now.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think this is 100% a 'full blown rebuild', but it is still early, so the 'bottoming out' hasn't happened.


2023-24 - the 'sell-off'. Bottoming out didn't really happen here, but resulted in a top 10 pick
2024-25 - regardless of what anyone said, the team was supposed to bottom-out, but over-achieved
2025-26 - team is bottoming-out now
2026-27 - I don't see the team coming out of the basement next season at all, so another high pick


I believe the rebuild was in full effect since the 2023-24 season - no 'hockey trades' really. Just a selling of assets for picks and futures. Considering all of the moves made already, having Andersson, Kadri and Coleman around doesn't prove that it isn't a rebuild in my opinion. I think what it shows is that Conroy isn't in a rush to make moves. He doesn't want to puposefully 'tank'. You don't need to this season. There are no bad teams anyway, so the Flames have the relative luxury of rebuilding without embarrassment (relative anyway), and this helps the Flames not end up with an overly difficult turn-around when they do draft the talent.


I think last season has really confused people. The roster is mostly the same, but the outcome has greatly changed. So was the plan to compete? Obviously not, but they competed and almost made the playoffs (and should have made the playoffs). Plus you had posters almost screaming down at people that the Flames are not rebuilding at all. Same roster (unless Vladar was the difference from rebuilding and not rebuilding?).


So now it comes down to 'how deep of a rebuild is this'? I would say this is very deep. How many 'good vets' do you need? You need as many good vets as you don't have room for prospects to insert. I love Coleman, and if Backlund retired today, he would be my pick for Captaincy. I would also re-sign him. Nobody on the team plays as consistently hard as he does, and he doesn't cheat - he plays the game the right way.


However, there are simply too many forwards, and Conroy will need to make room, period. Who needs a spot?


Permanent spot next season on forwards:
Honzek
Gridin
Flames' first round pick 2026 draft (likely)
Potentially Stromgren (waiver eligible next season, right?).
Longer shot with Reschny going pro - probably one more year of college


Spot needs to open for cycling of the following prospects:
Stromgren
Kerins
Morton
King potentially
Basha
Suniev


Maybe Morton sticks next season, maybe not. He is waiver eligible this season and passed, but like Solovyov, just because you pass waivers once doesn't mean you will pass again. Kerins is also a risk, so do the Flames make room for him next season? Either way, beyond the scope of this post.


Point is, that next season there will be a few fresh faces. While they may give some life to the team, as well as some scoring, chances are that this team is going to continue at the bottom of the standings. Removing Coleman, Andersson and Kadri (most likely) and replacing them with graduates from the prospect pool is almost guaranteed to result in more goals against, and less structure overall. San Jose finished last in the prior season, even though they inserted a LOAD of top-end prospects. Calgary will be no different.


So all of the confusion stems from the notion that:
1) The Flames haven't 'announced' a rebuild (and they may never)
2) The Flames haven't bottomed-out yet (but are currently doing so)
3) There wasn't any real selling-off last season (Mangiapane and Markstrom in the off-season, but nothing at the deadline), but i think it is because of a couple of factors (Flames doing so well, and there not needing to be a move made as nobody was expiring)


Also, Conroy can be VERY patient. What is the most valuable asset right now for the Flames organizationally? It is obviously their own 1st round pick this year, right? Conroy is no dummy - the better the Flames do, the less valuable that asset becomes. He can completely gut the team right now by shipping Andersson out and getting a lower return, 'guaranteeing' (as much as you can say it) a 30-32 overall finish. However, is this the smart approach?


Strength of schedule shows Vancouver (who got 3 pieces all contributing right now, plus Demko is back) and Nashville (still haven't sold on any of their players either) as having MUCH easier schedules. Only St. Louis is close to Calgary's (Calgary has the toughest schedule remaining, and St. Louis is 3rd hardest).


This means that Conroy can (and SHOULD) maximize the value of the Flames own 1st round pick AND the values of Andersson, Kadri and Coleman (and whomever else ends up traded, if any). There is no pressing need to make some stupid poor-value trade for the sake of tanking. Calgary is the ONLY bad team right now. Nashville's roster isn't too bad.


I think Calgary finishes last. 3 things that will really interest me at that point are:


1) How do the lottery balls fall - will Calgary move down?
2) Who does Calgary select wherever they end up picking?
3) Does Conroy come out and declare a rebuild at that time?

I do 100% believe that the "is this really a rebuild" crowd will stop wondering next season, regardless of what the Flames declare. This will start looking (in the standings) as an actual rebuild. It just took a bit of time for the team to tumble-down, that's all.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's taken the Sharks 7 years to get where they are today and they are still not a finished product. Flames have missed the playoffs 3 years counting while not hitting rock bottom yet whish is when the real hard times begin. There's no quick turnaround for this organization given how many key contributors are in their 30's and how little cornerstone talent they have in their pipeline. If the Flames are competing for a playoff spot by the end of the decade that will mean some of their upcoming draft picks go exceptionally well.

Sharks didn't really start rebuilding until 2022. It will really be the next three drafts that define where the Flames will be in comparison to the Sharks.

[TheIronMaiden]

In my experience so far a rebuild is trading everyone who isn't tied down, while listening to fans endlessly complain that we are 31st and not 32nd.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I do 100% believe that the "is this really a rebuild" crowd will stop wondering next season, regardless of what the Flames declare. This will start looking (in the standings) as an actual rebuild. It just took a bit of time for the team to tumble-down, that's all.

I agree with pretty much all of your post except this. I think that certain posters will have excuses for why the Flames finished last, etc. aside from a rebuild attempt. Like the Flames were "forced" to make moves. Or the Flames finished last in spite of not moving a player like Kadri or Coleman.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I think this is 100% a 'full blown rebuild', but it is still early, so the 'bottoming out' hasn't happened.


2023-24 - the 'sell-off'. Bottoming out didn't really happen here, but resulted in a top 10 pick
2024-25 - regardless of what anyone said, the team was supposed to bottom-out, but over-achieved
2025-26 - team is bottoming-out now
2026-27 - I don't see the team coming out of the basement next season at all, so another high pick


I believe the rebuild was in full effect since the 2023-24 season - no 'hockey trades' really. Just a selling of assets for picks and futures. Considering all of the moves made already, having Andersson, Kadri and Coleman around doesn't prove that it isn't a rebuild in my opinion. I think what it shows is that Conroy isn't in a rush to make moves. He doesn't want to puposefully 'tank'. You don't need to this season. There are no bad teams anyway, so the Flames have the relative luxury of rebuilding without embarrassment (relative anyway), and this helps the Flames not end up with an overly difficult turn-around when they do draft the talent.


I think last season has really confused people. The roster is mostly the same, but the outcome has greatly changed. So was the plan to compete? Obviously not, but they competed and almost made the playoffs (and should have made the playoffs). Plus you had posters almost screaming down at people that the Flames are not rebuilding at all. Same roster (unless Vladar was the difference from rebuilding and not rebuilding?).


So now it comes down to 'how deep of a rebuild is this'? I would say this is very deep. How many 'good vets' do you need? You need as many good vets as you don't have room for prospects to insert. I love Coleman, and if Backlund retired today, he would be my pick for Captaincy. I would also re-sign him. Nobody on the team plays as consistently hard as he does, and he doesn't cheat - he plays the game the right way.


However, there are simply too many forwards, and Conroy will need to make room, period. Who needs a spot?


Permanent spot next season on forwards:
Honzek
Gridin
Flames' first round pick 2026 draft (likely)
Potentially Stromgren (waiver eligible next season, right?).
Longer shot with Reschny going pro - probably one more year of college


Spot needs to open for cycling of the following prospects:
Stromgren
Kerins
Morton
King potentially
Basha
Suniev


Maybe Morton sticks next season, maybe not. He is waiver eligible this season and passed, but like Solovyov, just because you pass waivers once doesn't mean you will pass again. Kerins is also a risk, so do the Flames make room for him next season? Either way, beyond the scope of this post.


Point is, that next season there will be a few fresh faces. While they may give some life to the team, as well as some scoring, chances are that this team is going to continue at the bottom of the standings. Removing Coleman, Andersson and Kadri (most likely) and replacing them with graduates from the prospect pool is almost guaranteed to result in more goals against, and less structure overall. San Jose finished last in the prior season, even though they inserted a LOAD of top-end prospects. Calgary will be no different.


So all of the confusion stems from the notion that:
1) The Flames haven't 'announced' a rebuild (and they may never)
2) The Flames haven't bottomed-out yet (but are currently doing so)
3) There wasn't any real selling-off last season (Mangiapane and Markstrom in the off-season, but nothing at the deadline), but i think it is because of a couple of factors (Flames doing so well, and there not needing to be a move made as nobody was expiring)


Also, Conroy can be VERY patient. What is the most valuable asset right now for the Flames organizationally? It is obviously their own 1st round pick this year, right? Conroy is no dummy - the better the Flames do, the less valuable that asset becomes. He can completely gut the team right now by shipping Andersson out and getting a lower return, 'guaranteeing' (as much as you can say it) a 30-32 overall finish. However, is this the smart approach?


Strength of schedule shows Vancouver (who got 3 pieces all contributing right now, plus Demko is back) and Nashville (still haven't sold on any of their players either) as having MUCH easier schedules. Only St. Louis is close to Calgary's (Calgary has the toughest schedule remaining, and St. Louis is 3rd hardest).


This means that Conroy can (and SHOULD) maximize the value of the Flames own 1st round pick AND the values of Andersson, Kadri and Coleman (and whomever else ends up traded, if any). There is no pressing need to make some stupid poor-value trade for the sake of tanking. Calgary is the ONLY bad team right now. Nashville's roster isn't too bad.


I think Calgary finishes last. 3 things that will really interest me at that point are:


1) How do the lottery balls fall - will Calgary move down?
2) Who does Calgary select wherever they end up picking?
3) Does Conroy come out and declare a rebuild at that time?

I do 100% believe that the "is this really a rebuild" crowd will stop wondering next season, regardless of what the Flames declare. This will start looking (in the standings) as an actual rebuild. It just took a bit of time for the team to tumble-down, that's all.

They had a bad start to the season, but are 11-9-2 since the start of November, which I think is likely closer to the real quality of the team, even if a bit inflated. Our defense is pretty decent, coaching is solid, there's clear buy-in... I don't see us finishing last or even bottom 3. Other teams will also soon start giving up on the season, sooner than the Flames I think.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Itse

They had a bad start to the season, but are 11-9-2 since the start of November, which I think is likely closer to the real quality of the team, even if a bit inflated. Our defense is pretty decent, coaching is solid, there's clear buy-in... I don't see us finishing last or even bottom 3. Other teams will also soon start giving up on the season, sooner than the Flames I think.

Eventually the lack of talent will catch up to the Flames once they start trading their players. Even with that streak they are a fraction point % from being last. I think they will really start to struggle post Christmas.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

2019 the Sharks were in the third round and had gutted their prospect base in hopes of winning now sending picks and prospects for guys like Karlsson and Kane. The Flames had a better base to begin with. The Sharks also traded away the Tim Stutzle pick in the Karlsson deal where the Flames lost a 16th pick as opposed to the 32nd which they still made.

I do think the flames have drafted well especially the past couple of drafts and if they can land a couple of top picks I disagree they are at the beginning of this rebuild.

Core pieces in Wolf and Coronato were here before the rebuild kicked off and the 24-25 drafts are looking really strong. I agree I don’t see this team contending anytime soon but I don’t think we are in for a 5 year run of top picks and if that happens this regime won’t last to see it through

At some point they are going to start using their cap space as well. My guess is the off season before the arena opens. They are going to have to justify the increase in ticket prices.

I think this season and next season will be the last penny pinching seasons. After which I’m pretty sure we’re heading back to being a cap team with the cupboards restocked as well.

The Flames have too many holes in their forward group to be able to plug them all via the draft.

[GreenLantern2814]

Trading Ras, Naz and Coleman adds three extra 1st round picks.

If just one of them returns a 1st for 2026, then we have three 1sts in a deep draft, plus whatever 2nd round considerations we've added, and our own 2nd that may as well be a late 1st.

Two 2027 1sts would mean they have drafted multiple 1st rounders four consecutive drafts and eleven 1st round picks over that span (with at least one of them being a top-3 selection, probably two).

Plus other picks and prospects that are sure to be included.

That's a rebuild. Whether you want to call it that or a renovation or a reimagining or a reinterpretation, it doesn't matter.

It is (Oh God...) what it is.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I agree with pretty much all of your post except this. I think that certain posters will have excuses for why the Flames finished last, etc. aside from a rebuild attempt. Like the Flames were "forced" to make moves. Or the Flames finished last in spite of not moving a player like Kadri or Coleman.

Well, no team really enters into a rebuild until they are forced to, right? Gaudreau leaving essentially forced them into a rebuild. Tkachuk wanting to out reinforced it by wanting out. A good package gave the team an option to compete, along with Kadri willing to sign here. Things didn't work out, the GM walked, and Conroy was forced to start a rebuild. Now, the argument will be with "team was not successful and not enough stars" that forced them into a rebuild vs "players didn't want to re-sign" (which has mostly been proven as wrong assumptions.


Either way, it matters little to me or to the outcome if they flames were only forced to rebuild vs choosing this path proactively. At least they didn't manage to re-sign most of the vets and punted the rebuild 4 or 6 years down the road.

Originally Posted by Itse

They had a bad start to the season, but are 11-9-2 since the start of November, which I think is likely closer to the real quality of the team, even if a bit inflated. Our defense is pretty decent, coaching is solid, there's clear buy-in... I don't see us finishing last or even bottom 3. Other teams will also soon start giving up on the season, sooner than the Flames I think.

Well, I think this team works hard, has solid vets that push this team along, and are very well coached. I think you are 100% right. However, I personally feel that this roster is one of the NHL's worst on paper. Plus, the Flames have the toughest strength of schedule left. I think at some point, Andersson gets traded, and I really believe that there are two clear outcomes from it:


1) Andersson will leave a very large hole that won't be filled internally
2) It will take the will of this team away. Andersson is a big personality on this team, so losing him will be a huge loss in the room, but it will also signal to the team that this season is 'over'.


I see this team finishing last. If St. Louis starts selling-off players right away, or if Nashville does, then I will change my opinion.


I guess we will have to see what happens. I think they finish last depending on who sells when and how deep, and you feel they won't finish in the bottom 3. There are no bad teams this year.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

2) It will take the will of this team away. Andersson is a big personality on this team, so losing him will be a huge loss in the room, but it will also signal to the team that this season is 'over'.

I don't think trading Andersson is going to make the team cave. They've known all year unless he or the Flames give in to the other's demands he's being traded. For them it's just a matter of when and who takes his spot. I think Kadri being traded would be a bigger blow to the rest of the team and signal that management has given up on the season.

Trading him also might motivate the team like it did when Giordano's season was done in 2015 and we all thought the team would cave. I'm not saying it's going to propel them all the way to a playoff spot. But their will might not change as much as people think.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's taken the Sharks 7 years to get where they are today and they are still not a finished product. Flames have missed the playoffs 3 years counting while not hitting rock bottom yet whish is when the real hard times begin. There's no quick turnaround for this organization given how many key contributors are in their 30's and how little cornerstone talent they have in their pipeline. If the Flames are competing for a playoff spot by the end of the decade that will mean some of their upcoming draft picks go exceptionally well.

Or they get one top 5 pick (this year), combined with the #9 pick two years ago, and that's as far as ownership lets them go before building back up. They go hunting in free agency (new building and all) and the trade market and the buildup begins.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Trading Ras, Naz and Coleman adds three extra 1st round picks.

If just one of them returns a 1st for 2026, then we have three 1sts in a deep draft, plus whatever 2nd round considerations we've added, and our own 2nd that may as well be a late 1st.

Two 2027 1sts would mean they have drafted multiple 1st rounders four consecutive drafts and eleven 1st round picks over that span (with at least one of them being a top-3 selection, probably two).

Plus other picks and prospects that are sure to be included.

That's a rebuild. Whether you want to call it that or a renovation or a reimagining or a reinterpretation, it doesn't matter.

It is (Oh God...) what it is.

If we were getting offered a first for Coleman or Naz they would be traded already.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

If we were getting offered a first for Coleman or Naz they would be traded already.

What? The Flames have probably been offered a lot more than a first for Naz. Multiple teams would offer a late first for Coleman.

[Bingo]

Love stuff like this.

So this sent me down a rabbit hole.

I took a trade value chart, and then compared value by picks taken for every team over the last three years compared to the value they would have had if they just picked in their position by standings and didn't add, trade away, move up or move down.

Clearly the greater value is at the top of the draft and terrible teams have had more value.

And winning the lottery is huge as the value differential is huge. The Islanders added just under 1200 "points" by moving up in the lottery last year.

So luck is still involved.

The Flames had the 14th highest expected draft points based on their standing in the three seasons (15th, 25th and 14th), but ended up 10th in draft points because of the accumulation of draft capital adding 347 in value.

The worst is Florida (-756 points)

Rank by Differential

1. Chicago
2. Islanders
3. Utah

all three of those won lotteries for big point differentials. Chicago added extra picks as well.

4. Nashville
5. Philly
6. San Jose (adding picks)
7. Detroit
8. Calgary
9. St. Louis
10. Washington

Calgary certainly in that rebuilding group.

[Enoch Root]

not to mention... "they would be traded already" is one of the worst phrases on CP.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Well, no team really enters into a rebuild until they are forced to, right? Gaudreau leaving essentially forced them into a rebuild. Tkachuk wanting to out reinforced it by wanting out. A good package gave the team an option to compete, along with Kadri willing to sign here. Things didn't work out, the GM walked, and Conroy was forced to start a rebuild. Now, the argument will be with "team was not successful and not enough stars" that forced them into a rebuild vs "players didn't want to re-sign" (which has mostly been proven as wrong assumptions.


Either way, it matters little to me or to the outcome if they flames were only forced to rebuild vs choosing this path proactively. At least they didn't manage to re-sign most of the vets and punted the rebuild 4 or 6 years down the road.

You're right of course. But it sure seems to matter to some people why trades got made in the past, to the point they will stretch the truth about those circumstances in order to argue that the Flames don't really want to rebuild - they are "forced to".

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Love stuff like this.

So this sent me down a rabbit hole.

I took a trade value chart, and then compared value by picks taken for every team over the last three years compared to the value they would have had if they just picked in their position by standings and didn't add, trade away, move up or move down.

Clearly the greater value is at the top of the draft and terrible teams have had more value.

And winning the lottery is huge as the value differential is huge. The Islanders added just under 1200 "points" by moving up in the lottery last year.

So luck is still involved.

The Flames had the 14th highest expected draft points based on their standing in the three seasons (15th, 25th and 14th), but ended up 10th in draft points because of the accumulation of draft capital adding 347 in value.

The worst is Florida (-756 points)

Rank by Differential

1. Chicago
2. Islanders
3. Utah

all three of those won lotteries for big point differentials. Chicago added extra picks as well.

4. Nashville
5. Philly
6. San Jose (adding picks)
7. Detroit
8. Calgary
9. St. Louis
10. Washington

Calgary certainly in that rebuilding group.

Hmmm, I'd replace "certainly" with "marginally". 10th is closer to the middle than the top, and while again there is no one definition of a rebuild, if you count a third of the league as rebuilding then I think it starts to water down the concept quite a bit.

That said, move the window one year forward and we're hopefully looking at a much clearer picture.