Some positives

[McG]

GMBT is in Toronto.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

My disappointments are limited to Parekh not taking the team by storm as I hoped, Sharangovich disappearing and Zary hitting something of a wall. Plus the unfortunate injuries to Parekh and Honzek.

I'm crushed with disappointment that Cooley is not actually a nihilist. He looks so gloomy and depressed in interviews, I thought he was one for real!

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

More positives than negatives really. Cooley, Kuznestov, Honzek have all come up and done well. The two Fs have developed. Huberdeau is having a good season IMO. Coronato has returned to form (hopefully he beak doesn't affect him). I like Bahl and I think he could really develop into a shutdown D man.

My disappointments are limited to Parekh not taking the team by storm as I hoped, Sharangovich disappearing and Zary hitting something of a wall. Plus the unfortunate injuries to Parekh and Honzek.

Agree with the disappointments outside Yegor has looked better with Kadri. Wergar has also been disappointing for me.

Positives for me are how Gridin is ripping up the AHL, looks like he could be a real find with that late first round pick. Honzek looked solid on the 3rd line when he was healthy. I think Farabee has proven to be a quality NHL player still that they can probably flip for something in the next 2 years if they want, same with Frost, so a likely asset management win there. Anderson, Kadri and Coleman have all maintained their value at a minimum which is a positive. Cooley potentially being a legit NHL backup is also a pleasant surprise.

[Two Fivenagame]

A positive? The leafs are last in the convergence.

HAHAHAHAHAHA nice one Bradley!

[FBI]

Andersson 3 pts (again) and +4!
Bahl 3 goals already on the year, +4 tonight on the back to back.
Yegor AND Zary goals!

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Agree with the disappointments outside Yegor has looked better with Kadri. Wergar has also been disappointing for me.

Positives for me are how Gridin is ripping up the AHL, looks like he could be a real find with that late first round pick. Honzek looked solid on the 3rd line when he was healthy. I think Farabee has proven to be a quality NHL player still that they can probably flip for something in the next 2 years if they want, same with Frost, so a likely asset management win there. Anderson, Kadri and Coleman have all maintained their value at a minimum which is a positive. Cooley potentially being a legit NHL backup is also a pleasant surprise.

A find from a late first round pick??

Whaaaat?!

[Psytic]

Its wonderful but theres too much winning going on. We need a star player to really tie this together in any meaningful way. Here is what Gemini Model 3 Pro says:

This is the classic "Calgary Flames Purgatory" scenario. Your hunch about the advanced stats is dead on. If the Flames continue playing the way they have the last 10 games (high possession, low finishing), the advanced models suggest they are actually a Bubble Playoff Team masquerading as a lottery team. Here is why the data says you are "too good to be bad" and the disastrous effect this will have on your Draft Lottery hopes.

1. The Advanced Stats: You are statistically "Unlucky," not "Bad" The smoking gun from the November data is clear.

xGF% (54.0%, 7th in NHL): You are outplaying opponents and generating more chances than them most nights. A Top 10 xGF% team is usually a playoff lock.

PDO (98.1, Bottom 3): Your combined Shooting % and Save % is unsustainably low.

The Verdict: You are suffering from a "finishing drought." The model says if you just shoot at a league-average rate, you will start winning 6 out of every 10 games.

2. The Projection: If this continues, where do we finish? If the "puck luck" corrects itself (which it always does) and you keep driving play at a Top-10 rate, you will climb out of the basement and finish with roughly 85–90 Points. The result is you miss the playoffs by 4 points, but play yourself out of the Lottery, landing in the 12th – 14th Overall range.

3. The "Mushy Middle" Draft Board (Drafting at #13) This is the nightmare scenario. You miss out on the franchise saviors (Gavin McKenna, Keaton Verhoeff) and land in the "Very Good Player" tier. At 13th overall, you are looking at targets like Chase Reid (RD) or Adam Novotny (LW). These are solid Top-4 Defenders or safe 2nd Line Wingers, but they are not the superstars ) required to make the "Dallas Model" work.

4. The "Doomsday" Reality If the team keeps winning games like the 5-2 victory over Vancouver, you lose Gavin McKenna and Keaton Verhoeff, and instead gain "Culture" and a 2nd line winger at pick #13.

The Conclusion & Strategic Pivot Your eyes and the stats are telling the truth: This roster is not bad enough to finish last. If you truly want Gavin McKenna, management must actively sabotage this roster by the Trade Deadline. You must trade Rasmus Andersson and Nazem Kadri before they win too many games. If you keep them, their underlying metrics are too strong and will drag this team to 9th place in the West—the worst possible place to be.

[Jiri Hrdina]

What prompt did you use?

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

What prompt did you use?

I asked it : What happens if the Flames keep playing the way they have? Where do we draft? I'm doubting we get McKenna. The advanced stats seem to show the team isn't really that bad. I had asked it to evaluate our whole team and prospect pool previously to see how we stack up against Maloney's "Dallas model dream " is why it knew about that.

[dino7c]

Advanced stats were good all year...nearly every game was close. It had to turn at some point...at least for a little while

[Psytic]

Also for fun since this is supposed to be a positivity thread... here is what it thinks about our prospects:

Tier 1: The "Grand Slam" Tracks (Stars in the Making)
These players are hitting elite benchmarks relative to their age and league.

Zayne Parekh (RD) | Calgary Flames (NHL)

Stats: 11 GP, 1 Pt

Context: Sheltered. Do not let the low points fool you. He is playing ~15 mins/night in a sheltered offensive role. His underlying play-driving metrics are elite (90th percentile), but the team is struggling to finish his setups.

Verdict: On Track.

Cole Reschny (C) | North Dakota (NCAA)

Stats: 12 GP, 11 Pts

Context: Powerhouse Team. North Dakota is ranked #6 nationally. While the team is great, Reschny is driving his own line as a freshman. Nearly a point-per-game at 18 in the NCAA is the "Star Center" benchmark.

Verdict: Elite.

Kirill Zarubin (G) | AKM Tula (MHL)

Stats: .929 SV%

Context: Russian Voodoo. He is dominating the top Russian junior league. Goalie stats are volatile, but a .930 SV% usually indicates he is too good for this level.

Verdict: Future Starter.

Matvei Gridin (RW) | Wranglers (AHL)

Stats: 15 GP, 15 Pts

Context: League Split. He has played 4 NHL games (1 Goal) and is over a point-per-game in the AHL. For a 19-year-old winger, dominating the AHL immediately is a massive green flag.

Verdict: Top 6 Lock.

Tier 2: The "Risers" (Outperforming Expectations)
These players are popping, often overcoming bad team situations.

Trevor Hoskin (RW) | Merrimack (NCAA)

Stats: 10 GP, 12 Pts

Context: Carrying a Struggling Team. Merrimack is unranked and struggling (5-6 record), yet Hoskin is scoring at an elite clip. He is generating offense despite his team, not because of it. This is the most impressive stat line in the system.

Verdict: Legit Top 6 Upside.

Hunter Brzustewicz (RD) | Wranglers (AHL)

Stats: 19 GP, 11 Pts

Context: PP Specialist. He is running the AHL power play effectively. His defensive game at 5v5 is still raw (sheltered minutes), but the offensive production translates.

Verdict: NHL PP Quarterback.

Eric Jamieson (LD) | Denver (NCAA)

Stats: 13 GP, 9 Pts

Context: The "Denver Bump." Denver is the #3 team in the country. Jamieson's stats are slightly inflated by playing on a juggernaut, but as a defensive defenseman, 9 points is still excellent.

Verdict: Solid NHL #4/5.

Cullen Potter (C) | Arizona State (NCAA)

Stats: 12 GP, 8 Pts

Context: Weak Team / Heavy Usage. ASU is mediocre (5-8-1 record). Potter is being asked to do everything as a freshman. 8 points is respectable given he has very little help.

Verdict: Middle 6 Dynamic Center.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Psytic

I asked it : What happens if the Flames keep playing the way they have? Where do we draft? I'm doubting we get McKenna. The advanced stats seem to show the team isn't really that bad. I had asked it to evaluate our whole team and prospect pool previously to see how we stack up against Maloney's "Dallas model dream " is why it knew about that.

Ok so you allowed it to apply recency bias in its analysis. I don’t mean that as a criticism of you but more a comment on how these models can be highly influenced by the input

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Ok so you allowed it to apply recency bias in its analysis

Edited for it to account for strength of schedule. Here is what it says now. Also I think its possible we are a below league average finishing team as well. It assumes we improve to the mean in shooting PDO.


The "Strength of Schedule" Plot Twist: Why the Tank is Saved

I ran the adjustment for Strength of Schedule (SOS), and it completely flips the narrative again. In the previous analysis, the "Pure Stats" said we were an elite team getting unlucky. But when context-adjusted for who we actually played, it reveals those stats are a mirage.

1. The "Easy Street" Illusion (Past)

SOS Played: 29th in NHL (3rd Easiest).

The Reality Check: Our "Elite Defensive Metrics" (#1 xGA) were built while playing against (San Jose, Chicago, Montreal).

Verdict: We aren't a defensive juggernaut. We just beat up on bad teams who couldn't cycle the puck. Our dominance is inflated.

2. The "Gauntlet" Ahead (Future)

Remaining SOS: 1st in NHL (The Hardest Road).

The Nightmare: We have the single most difficult schedule left. We still play Dallas (3x), Colorado (3x), Vegas (3x), and the East powerhouses.

The Impact: Even if our "Puck Luck" bounces back, it will be cancelled out by playing elite opponents who won't let us possess the puck for 60% of the game.

3. The Revised Projection (The "Good" News) The "Pure Stats" model predicted a surge to 87 Points (11th Overall - Purgatory). The "SOS-Adjusted" model predicts we get crushed.

The Correction: Our shooting % goes up, but our defensive metrics will collapse against elite competition.

New Pace: Instead of .600, we play at a .450 pace.

Revised Final Points: 74 – 78 Points.

4. What this means for the Draft This is the best news for the rebuild.

Pure Stats Prediction: 87 Points ➡ Draft 11th.

SOS Adjusted Prediction: 76 Points ➡ Draft 6th – 8th.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Ok so you allowed it to apply recency bias in its analysis. I don’t mean that as a criticism of you but more a comment on how these models can be highly influenced by the input

Well I just re-asked it for the whole season and asked it to adjust for strength of schedule you can see what it thinks.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Thx interesting and I agree it may not be accounting for the poor finishing
But an interesting experiment regardless

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Thx interesting and I agree it may not be accounting for the poor finishing
But an interesting experiment regardless

Here is what It thinks on that.



The "Doomsday" Scenario: What if our shooting never improves?

If our shooting percentage stays at the current ~6.9% (and does not regress to the league average), we are entering historical anomaly territory. Based on the few modern teams that actually sustained a shooting percentage this low for a full 82 games, here is exactly where we finish and draft.

1. The Historical Comparison Only three teams in the Salary Cap era have finished a full season with a shooting percentage below 7.2%. Here is the company we would be keeping:

Arizona Coyotes (2014-15): 6.9% Sh% ➡ 56 Points ➡ Drafted 3rd (Dylan Strome)

Buffalo Sabres (2013-14): 7.0% Sh% ➡ 52 Points ➡ Drafted 2nd (Sam Reinhart)

Colorado Avalanche (2016-17): 7.2% Sh% ➡ 48 Points ➡ Drafted 4th (Cale Makar)

2. The Projection (If we don't improve) If the "Finishing Drought" is permanent for this season (meaning we continue to shoot 6.9%):

Projected Record: ~22 – 25 Wins.

Projected Points: 54 – 58 Points.

Draft Position: Top 3 Guaranteed.

3. Why the "Elite Defense" won't save us You might think our #1 Ranked Defense (xGA) would keep us in games even if we can't score. Historically, that is false.

The "1-Goal Loss" Trap: When you shoot 6.9%, you lose 2-1. When we play the elite teams (Dallas, Vegas) in the second half, those become 3-0 losses.

The Mental Collapse: Teams that can't score eventually stop defending because they lose hope. If the finishing doesn't turn around by Game 40, the defensive metrics usually collapse, ensuring the tank is successful.

The Final Verdict If the shooting percentage is real (and not just bad luck), we draft 2nd or 3rd Overall.

The Prize: We are right back in the mix for Gavin McKenna or Keaton Verhoeff.

The Risk: The only thing that can screw this up is if Dustin Wolf decides to win the Vezina Trophy and drag a 55-point team to 75 points.

[dino7c]

Havent the Flames played almost all their B2B games? I remember reading they only had like 6 or 7, league low...We gotta be close

[getbak]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Havent the Flames played almost all their B2B games? I remember reading they only had like 6 or 7, league low...We gotta be close

Sunday was their 5th so far. They only have 4 left for the entire rest of the season.

[cam_calderon]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s just refreshing to hear a player who recognizes it’s just a game and absolutely loves playing it to the point he seems in awe he gets to do it for a living, not taking a second of it for granted.

Helps that he might be the most unapologetically Californian player in the entire NHL.

Hell yeah dude

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Psytic

Its wonderful but theres too much winning going on. We need a star player to really tie this together in any meaningful way. Here is what Gemini Model 3 Pro says:

This is the classic "Calgary Flames Purgatory" scenario. Your hunch about the advanced stats is dead on. If the Flames continue playing the way they have the last 10 games (high possession, low finishing), the advanced models suggest they are actually a Bubble Playoff Team masquerading as a lottery team. Here is why the data says you are "too good to be bad" and the disastrous effect this will have on your Draft Lottery hopes.

1. The Advanced Stats: You are statistically "Unlucky," not "Bad" The smoking gun from the November data is clear.

xGF% (54.0%, 7th in NHL): You are outplaying opponents and generating more chances than them most nights. A Top 10 xGF% team is usually a playoff lock.

PDO (98.1, Bottom 3): Your combined Shooting % and Save % is unsustainably low.

The Verdict: You are suffering from a "finishing drought." The model says if you just shoot at a league-average rate, you will start winning 6 out of every 10 games.

2. The Projection: If this continues, where do we finish? If the "puck luck" corrects itself (which it always does) and you keep driving play at a Top-10 rate, you will climb out of the basement and finish with roughly 85–90 Points. The result is you miss the playoffs by 4 points, but play yourself out of the Lottery, landing in the 12th – 14th Overall range.

3. The "Mushy Middle" Draft Board (Drafting at #13) This is the nightmare scenario. You miss out on the franchise saviors (Gavin McKenna, Keaton Verhoeff) and land in the "Very Good Player" tier. At 13th overall, you are looking at targets like Chase Reid (RD) or Adam Novotny (LW). These are solid Top-4 Defenders or safe 2nd Line Wingers, but they are not the superstars ) required to make the "Dallas Model" work.

4. The "Doomsday" Reality If the team keeps winning games like the 5-2 victory over Vancouver, you lose Gavin McKenna and Keaton Verhoeff, and instead gain "Culture" and a 2nd line winger at pick #13.

The Conclusion & Strategic Pivot Your eyes and the stats are telling the truth: This roster is not bad enough to finish last. If you truly want Gavin McKenna, management must actively sabotage this roster by the Trade Deadline. You must trade Rasmus Andersson and Nazem Kadri before they win too many games. If you keep them, their underlying metrics are too strong and will drag this team to 9th place in the West—the worst possible place to be.

Guaranteed it used this site for most of its inputs.