The Tariff Thread

[CaptainCrunch]

Its almost too late to diversify away from the American Market, especially for energy.

There's no way that we will ever be able to build a energy pipeline to the East coast, and there's no way to expand capacity to the West Coast. Even if we could it would probably take decades.



We can put an export tax on Oil and Gas, but really, all that will do is trigger another set of retaliations from the States, Maybe they shut down line 5 who knows.



All that's going to happen is that we're going to dig in, the US is going to dig in, Canada is going to print hundreds of billions of dollars, which is inflationary and will further devalue the loony. On top of that, we put our retaliatory tariffs on American goods coming in, that will likely include a lot of food. so we're going to get blasted on coast of living.


The next 6 months or so is going to be ugly, and there will be no movement on either sides governments, and then maybe both sides will actually get serious about getting to the negotiating table.

[FlamesAddiction]

Until the fentanyl overdose crisis is solved? Good luck with that one. The war on drugs has been going on for half a century.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by edslunch

It sucks for all of us Spike

It's obviously brutal that this is happening. But my goodwill and concern for aluminum and car parts from the east is precisely 0, especially if they expect that as a province that produces something actually important and irreplaceable to the Americans, hence the 10%, we take yet another one for the team.

They voted NDP Liberal
They made our needed export pipelines and LNG facilities political issues when they didn't need to be.
They can deal with the consequences.

Trade diversification matters. Critical strategic infrastructure matters. Competent leadership matters. How long did I bang on and on and on on this board 5-8 years ago about how stupidly dependent we were on the Americans in every way. It was only a matter of time until someone came along to exploit that dependency, at the end of the day we had the power to insulate ourselves from this and we didn't. Beyond frustrating.

For Christ sake we don't even have a functioning Parliament right now

[calgarygeologist]

CBC is reporting that a clause in the US tariffs says that if Canada retaliates with their own tariffs the 25% rate will increase on Canadian goods.

[GoinAllTheWay]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Blaming Canada for their fentanyl consumption problems is like blaming lug nut manufacturers for an increase in tire prices.

I seriously doubt this has anything to do with Fentanyl. It's just the excuse he's using.



I have a hard time believe big Orange gives any kind of crap for the people who overdose on it.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

It's obviously brutal that this is happening. But my goodwill and concern for aluminum and car parts from the east is precisely 0, especially if they expect that as a province that produces something actually important and irreplaceable to the Americans, hence the 10%, we take yet another one for the team.

They voted NDP Liberal
They made our needed export pipelines and LNG facilities political issues when they didn't need to be.
They can deal with the consequences.

Trade diversification matters. Critical strategic infrastructure matters. Competent leadership matters. How long did I bang on and on and on on this board 5-8 years ago about how stupidly dependent we were on the Americans in every way. It was only a matter of time until someone came along to exploit that dependency, at the end of the day we had the power to insulate ourselves from this and we didn't. Beyond frustrating.

For Christ sake we don't even have a functioning Parliament right now

We. They. We. They. This all sounds so stupid I can’t stand it.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Its almost too late to diversify away from the American Market, especially for energy.

There's no way that we will ever be able to build a energy pipeline to the East coast, and there's no way to expand capacity to the West Coast. Even if we could it would probably take decades.



We can put an export tax on Oil and Gas, but really, all that will do is trigger another set of retaliations from the States, Maybe they shut down line 5 who knows.



All that's going to happen is that we're going to dig in, the US is going to dig in, Canada is going to print hundreds of billions of dollars, which is inflationary and will further devalue the loony. On top of that, we put our retaliatory tariffs on American goods coming in, that will likely include a lot of food. so we're going to get blasted on coast of living.


The next 6 months or so is going to be ugly, and there will be no movement on either sides governments, and then maybe both sides will actually get serious about getting to the negotiating table.

This. Canada has been backstabbed and checkmated by our closest ally. I don't see any way to "win" right now, since there are literally no good levers to pull. I'm not even sure the US states that will get hurt by this can do anything about it. If I'm PM, I'm offering up 2% national defense spending today including an agreement to buy US military gear (maybe even nuclear subs and break with that no-nuclear policy), because as nuts as that is financially, what is coming is going to be worse.

It's brutal, and even if we built EE and Northern Gateway, we'd still be vulnerable, but at least we'd have a real lever to pull.

[Street Pharmacist]

Here's how this plays out


Things go sideways within days because both sides will see some real hurt in some loud constituencies.

After 4 or 5 days both sides will claim some sort of pyrrhic victory. Trump claiming he got Canada to agree to something they didn't but no one will follow up. Canada will claim they showed resolve and will continue to strengthen their partnership with their most important ally.

Some longer term unknowable crap implications will continue to affect some vulnerable sectors and the news will shift to something else that destroys Western cohesion

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

We. They. We. They. This all sounds so stupid I can’t stand it.

It's amazing how singularly focused these RW posters are. Canada is more than oil, and needs more than that to survive long term. Plus, you know, the usual persecution complex.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Here's how this plays out


Things go sideways within days because both sides will see some real hurt in some loud constituencies.

After 4 or 5 days both sides will claim some sort of pyrrhic victory. Trump claiming he got Canada to agree to something they didn't but no one will follow up. Canada will claim they showed resolve and will continue to strengthen their partnership with their most important ally.

Some longer term unknowable crap implications will continue to affect some vulnerable sectors and the news will shift to something else that destroys Western cohesion

I think this is the best case scenario, and even this isn't great. I hope you're right.

[Firebot]

It's pointless to think of the should have parts right now (Energy East, diversifying etc). We are in the state we are today, and have to manage accordingly.

Canada absolutely has to retaliate against a bully. If 25% on all goods do 50% retaliation. Not a like for like, but a punitive one.

This is in addition to fentanyl strike teams or something stupid to get Trump to get his 'win'.

Outside of oil, the US enjoys a trade surplus with Canada. It will hurt both sides significantly (especially when the US is doing the same to Mexico, declared a trade war against the EU and China as well).

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by direwolf

So you're blaming everyone except the orange s***stain who is responsible? WTF, dude? Only one person is the cause of this mess, and he's currently sitting in the Oval Office. Might want to direct your ire towards him and his MAGA lunatic handlers instead.

What do you want me, or anyone else in Canada, to do about Trump? Yeah, this sucks. Happy?

There's this fun concept, and a lot of you would probably do well to apply this your personal lives, called personal responsibility. You can't control what other people do, only yourself. Canada only had control over our own actions over the last ten years and what did we do? Made ourselves weaker, poorer, and more inept every chance we got. Now we're facing down a trade war with a larger stronger party than us and we have not much effective leverage.

[Muta]

Why there aren't mass protests in DC right now, I have no idea. These tariffs do nothing but make things unnecessarily expensive for Americans all baselessly founded on a red herring (fentanyl crisis at the Canadian border). The right is systematically destroying their own economy and democracy, all because they easily fall for a con man who doesn't give a #### about them.

Hey MAGAs/conservatives, by the way, those egg prices reduce yet? How about gas? Still guarding your pets in the closet from immigrants who are at your front door with cutlery and HP sauce?

[Reggie Dunlop]

Supply and Demand. Illicit fentanyl manufacturing will just be supplied domestically. Until the American government addresses that, they're not going to solve the drug problem.

I think it's more likely that Trump wants a "cut" of illegal drugs coming into the U.S.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Here's how this plays out


Things go sideways within days because both sides will see some real hurt in some loud constituencies.

After 4 or 5 days both sides will claim some sort of pyrrhic victory. Trump claiming he got Canada to agree to something they didn't but no one will follow up. Canada will claim they showed resolve and will continue to strengthen their partnership with their most important ally.

Some longer term unknowable crap implications will continue to affect some vulnerable sectors and the news will shift to something else that destroys Western cohesion

I don't know if it will be that quick, I think we're going to be talking weeks to months, of both governments digging in because, and this is jaded me saying it. Most governments don't give two craps about the ordinary person going through hell.



Both sides will dig in, the Liberals will return to parliament and attempt to pass a monstrous and uncontrollable spending bill. The NDP will support it because looking at fundraising numbers by party, damn.



The passing bill will pass. Trump will up the ante and find a way to increase the pressure. Canada will pull the levels on 2nd and 3rd level tariffs.



I expect at some point that the Libs will fall in aug, or Sept. The new government will come in, and push for a summit with Trump. At that point the 1.4 that we are going to spend on the border will go from a 3 year costed to a right the F now spend, and that the Government will commit in writing to Trump that defence spending will hit 2% by 12/31/2026, Trump will give up a concession, maybe better border patrols dealing with gun and drug smuggling IDK. Trump and the new government will announce a gradual reduction in the Tarrifs ending when all conditions are met.



By nature, I think 70% of our exports go to the States, and I think, I think about 20% of US exports go to Canada. So we are in a fairly leverless position, because our economy orbits the American Economy.

[The Yen Man]

At this point, there isn't anything really we can do to change Trumps mind. In a weird way, I'm looking forward to seeing how this will screw over the American people.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Firebot

It's pointless to think of the should have parts right now (Energy East, diversifying etc). We are in the state we are today, and have to manage accordingly.

No it's not pointless. People need to take responsibility for how they acted, how they voted, how they thought this wouldn't be a big deal and now 8 years later we're standing around with our dicks in our hands. There needs to be a sea change in Canadian's passive, weak attitudes, now, today.

Because down the road there will be another situation just like this one where it will clearly be in our interest to have these assets and they still won't be in the ground and I'll have to read and hear the same garbage.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Firebot

It's pointless to think of the should have parts right now (Energy East, diversifying etc). We are in the state we are today, and have to manage accordingly.

Canada absolutely has to retaliate against a bully. If 25% on all goods do 50% retaliation. Not a like for like, but a punitive one.

This is in addition to fentanyl strike teams or something stupid to get Trump to get his 'win'.

Outside of oil, the US enjoys a trade surplus with Canada. It will hurt both sides significantly (especially when the US is doing the same to Mexico, declared a trade war against the EU and China as well).

I don't see how 50% retaliation helps the situation. It just crushes 99% of the Canadian population in the short term who are already battling to survive following our inflation crisis. Maybe the government will expedite some $2000 monthly cheques per person or something to help us out but that just means we will pay for that down the road.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Supply and Demand. Illicit fentanyl manufacturing will just be supplied domestically. Until the American government addresses that, they're not going to solve the drug problem.

I think it's more likely that Trump wants a "cut" of illegal drugs coming into the U.S.

Does anyone know, I mean we talk about not being a big part of the Fentanyl issues, I mean 43 lbs is still like 18 million doses or 9 million lethal doses. But what about the precursor chemicals that are being smuggled into the States. Rona Ambrose was talking about that the other night, and it was a problem that the Canadian Governments were ignoring, in that the stuff needed to make it was coming from Canada to the US and it was a known problem.



I mean I don't think, and Trump is a insane nutbar, that there is a quantification, I don't think you can say to him, we're a small part of the problem, because his cheeto clustered brain has two settings problem or not problem.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

At this point, there isn't anything really we can do to change Trumps mind. In a weird way, I'm looking forward to seeing how this will screw over the American people.

We better hope it does, that Mexico and China heavily retaliate, and that our EU and UK "allies" decide to dogpile the US with tariffs as well.

No Canadian response (that doesn't suicide our economy or exports long term) is going to do it alone if he's deadset no matter what we offer on national defence and border security.