Are the Flames actually a playoff team?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

On one hand, no one on the Flames is even on pace for 50 points.
But on the other, Wolf has 92.6%...

That doesn't seem sustainable over a full season. Maybe Wolf can keep up his play but this team will need some players to step up offensively as it will be extremely difficult to make the playoffs when secondary scoring is the team's primary scoring.

[Cowboy89]

Realistically overall I would say no still.

If Wolf and Vladar can keep this up at this level without any let down then yes. That said Wolf's current pace is Vezina trophy caliber and it would be unrealistic to expect that for the whole season. In my mind Wolf's the real deal as far as being a #1 goaltender and probably is in the top half of goalies in the league and continuing at that level would make the difference of +0.5-1 GA a game from where they are now and the offence would have to heat up to offset that to make the playoffs realistic. That would mean 2-3 of the Kuzmenko, Huberdeau, Kadri, Sharangovich group would need to ramp up to their potential to make that happen. Possible but not probable.

[SuperMatt18]

They need to score more but it's not just all goaltending, looking at all situations they sit:

Corsi : 50.8% (14th)
High Danger: 51.7% (12th)
xGF: 50.8% (17th)
Goals: 49.5% (16th)

Shooting %: 8.67% (27th)
Save %: .913 (5th)
PDO: 1.000 (14th)

So by most underlying stats they are in the top half of the league which is the playoff threshold.

Save percentage likely comes down a bit, but if special teams and shooting percentage improve along with that then it would balance out. This is also the system they are playing (low risk, low event) and it's working for them.

96 points is generally the playoff threshold.
77 points is the "Bottom 10" threshold.

Remaining record to get to 96: .573 points percentage
Remaining record to get to 77: .419 points percentage

Have to hope they can make the playoffs because worse case scenario is finishing 11-16 draft pick and giving that pick to Montreal and no playoffs. And right now playoffs looks a lot more likely than bottom 10.

[Yanda]

Playoff Odds calculators have us at a 63% chance of making the playoffs after last night.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Playoff Odds calculators have us at a 63% chance of making the playoffs after last night.

Which seems preposterous.

Dont get me wrong, they're playing well, but my expectations going in to this season was "not a snowball's chance in hell."

[Shazam]

It is entirely possible to be rebuilding and make the playoffs. These things are not mutually exclusive.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

They need to score more but it's not jsut all goaltending, looking at all situations they sit:

Corsi : 50.8% (14th)
High Danger: 51.7% (12th)
xGF: 50.8% (17th)
Goals: 49.5% (16th)

Shooting %: 8.67% (27th)
Save %: .913 (5th)
PDO: 1.000 (14th)

So by most underlying stats they are in the top half of the league which is the playoff threshold.

Save percentage likely comes down a bit, but if special teams and shooting percentage improve along with that then it would balance out. This is also the system they are playing (low risk, low event) and it's working for them.

96 points is generally the playoff threshold.
77 points is the "Bottom 10" threshold.

Remaining record to get to 96: .573 points percentage
Remaining record to get to 77: .419 points percentage

Have to hope they can make the playoffs because worse case scenario is finishing 11-16 draft pick and giving that pick to Montreal and no playoffs. And right now playoffs looks a lot more likely than bottom 10.

They are more or less middle of the pack on everything except save % and shooting %.

I am bullish on our goalies so maybe that stays where it is.

I'm also bearish on the forwards so not sure that shooting % improves at all.

The standings are tightly bunched, avoid any big losing streaks and this team might stay in it until the end. But nervous that the lack of scoring catches up to them.

[N-E-B]

I still tend to think that this team probably misses the playoffs in the end but they’re definitely going to be better than I expected. I didn’t think Wolf would be this good.

[BsFaninCGY]

I don't know if any of you caught Conroy on Real Kipper & Bourne this week, but he essentially said (paraphrasing) that last year they traded Markstrom to make room for Wolf/Vladar/Cooley, and they will do the same this year (IMO alluding to more trades to bring up kids from the farm). It was a good interview all around, but that line kinda slipped in there and wasn't followed up on. Worth a listen I think as it sounded to me like he said he's making more trades. If so, I think playoffs will fall short


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4gi...nnel=SPORTSNET

Start around minute 50

[blankall]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

On one hand, no one on the Flames is even on pace for 50 points.
But on the other, Wolf has 92.6%...

Is this team finally living Darryl Sutter's dream?

[Erick Estrada]

It's one of those things where if your young goaltender is good enough to take a rebuilding team to a 14-15th place finish where you have to balance the disappointment of handing that pick to Montreal with optimism that the organization has a young, franchise goaltender which is one of the steps required to come out of a rebuild. It's also a good indication that the head coach is pretty good. Look at Montreal and Ottawa. Both teams sitting at the bottom of the conference after rebuilding for years. Coaching and goaltending are part of the puzzle that a team needs to turn the corner.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Shazam

It is entirely possible to be rebuilding and make the playoffs. These things are not mutually exclusive.

The hope is that the GM recognizes he is still a rebuilding team and doesn't get trigger happy trying to get better the very next season. Looking at you Treliving, trading a first and two seconds for Hamonic.

The flames hopefully draft top-10 two more times, then start to load up.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

I still tend to think that this team probably misses the playoffs in the end but they’re definitely going to be better than I expected. I didn’t think Wolf would be this good.

Not patting myself on the back or anything, but I truly thought either Wolf would fail as an NHLer, or be a star. No in between.

And here we are.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Pretty good chance now it seems.
Just looking at the West overall, I see them with Vancouver, St Louis, Seattle & LA for 2 spots.
With Vancouver's injuries, there's a lot of suck in that group.

I do think the stinky Oilers will hit a powrplay winning streak at some point so Edm, Vegas, Dallas, Colorado, Wpg & Minnesota are 6 teams I expect ahead of us eventually.

[Yeah_Baby]

The Flamesyest outcome is still just outside the wild card and losing our pick to Montreal.

[traptor]

If wolf is able to maintain this level, we can definitely be a playoff team.

The question becomes how do the flames acquire other elite pieces that will push them into contender status and avoid the mediocrity we've all known.


It doesn't matter where you get them but you need them. Wether that's a barkov, chucky, eichel, pietrangelo, makar, macK, kucherov or hedman.

The most sure fired way is through the top of draft. We might not have that option.

We need to find them though. Otherwise we'll just become the islanders.

[SilverKast]

Probably another typical Flames season - right around 7-10 place. Maybe just squeak into the playoffs, otherwise just miss. Not good enough to do any real damage, but not bad enough to draft a difference maker. Right in the mushy middle where we always end up.

[Vinny01]

They need to find a way to score more goals but with Wolf being the real deal it sure looks like they have the potential to make it. Flames have assets and cap space to make anything happen but for those that want a tankbuild it might not happen.

Next year is the year to pick at the top. This team works and the young guys are part of the solution. I just hope they don’t rush things and still plan to build for the new rink.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

People need to understand, making the playoffs this year means nothing, other than “wolf is a franchise goalie”

If it happens, it’ll be on the backs of guys who are already under contract long term anyway, and guys in their late 20s with 1-2 years left.

If they make it, good for them - they’re the lowest payroll in the league, if they make the post season, it’s on merit.

All those guys being one year older could get off to a slow start the following year quite easily, and the team could sell the UFAs like they did a year ago.

And like they did after 2015. They drafted Top-6 twice more after that, and could’ve added Noah Dobson to the blue line. Instead they got Travis Hamonic.

Don’t do that again.

1985-86 shows how far a team can go with a young franchise goalie 😂

[BACKCHECK!!!]

We keep our pick if we finish bottom 10, or if we finish higher than Florida, right?

That’s a pretty easy choice.