Athletic team goaltending rankings: Calgary #5

[OutOfTheCube]

That's a pretty big 'if' on Wolf there. One could also say 'if' he struggles, the Flames have bottom-5 goaltending in the league. I don't think even the most optimistic fan would put Calgary at 5th right now...

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Love seeing pundits faith in Wolf.

It makes me reflect on my own belief in the kid and how taking too much stock in his limited action so far might be hasty/premature.

If they see elite tools still, maybe this situation needs a little more patience from us.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

Definitely not sold on Wolf like some people are. It’s all well and good that’s he’s been great in the AHL but NHL snipers are going to eat him for breakfast.

Or he adjusts like he has at every level of hockey.

Thinking he's already plateaued as far as NHL play seems foolish.

The better question is how much room or growth is there in the kid at this level.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

That's a pretty big 'if' on Wolf there. One could also say 'if' he struggles, the Flames have bottom-5 goaltending in the league. I don't think even the most optimistic fan would put Calgary at 5th right now...

We will have to wait and see how Wolf fares this season. He is going to get absolutely shelled every night out.

[blankall]

Personally, I hope that Wolf doesn't "run with it" right away, as early as next year. With all the tearing down the Flames have done, not getting a top draft pick would be disappointing. I'd prefer Wolf slowly becoming a legit starter over the next 1-2 years.

[Strange Brew]

Not sure 20th, 3rd and 5th average out to 5th but I’ll take it I guess. 20th for current rankings seems kind of generous but the cap situation is just about perfect and should be better than 5th.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

Definitely not sold on Wolf like some people are. It’s all well and good that’s he’s been great in the AHL but NHL snipers are going to eat him for breakfast.

Top left corner all day.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by blankall

Personally, I hope that Wolf doesn't "run with it" right away, as early as next year. With all the tearing down the Flames have done, not getting a top draft pick would be disappointing. I'd prefer Wolf slowly becoming a legit starter over the next 1-2 years.

Have you looked at the defence in front of him?

I’m more worried about him getting hung out to dry.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Have you looked at the defence in front of him?

I’m more worried about him getting hung out to dry.

If Wolf somehow steals games next year then the Flames will have their Saros. Markstrom was going to get sewered in front of that D

[rogermexico]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Not sure 20th, 3rd and 5th average out to 5th but I’ll take it I guess. 20th for current rankings seems kind of generous but the cap situation is just about perfect and should be better than 5th.

Knowing the Athletic, they probably had Dom Luszczyszyn cook up a proprietary "Adjusted Average Plus" algorithm that includes the combined NHLe scores of the goalies, the altitude of their training facilities, and last night's betting lines.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Barely adequate? He was 13-6-2 and 14-6-5 when the team was trying to compete, and was very much not sheltered. He faced mainly playoff opponents while Marky got the bottom dwellers included in his mix

Note that in 2022-23, when he was 14-6-5, Markstrom was 23-21-12

Last year he was 8-9-2 when the team blew it up, he had a hip injury, and meanwhile the #1 goalie Markstrom was 23-23-2. No real dropoff from starter to backup

Not really sure what more you want from a backup goalie

Record is a poor way to evaluate goaltenders. The Flames scored 4.48 goals/game in 2022-23 Vladar decisions and 2.72 goals/game in the rest of them.

During those three seasons, Vladar had -3.8, -8.4, and -12.5 GSAE. He's 66th out of 76 at GSAE/60 in 2022-23 (minimum 12 games), and 71st out of 71 at GSAE/60 in 2023-24. He's bad.

No reason to spend any more than league minimum on someone like that, unless you're Treliving.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Not sure 20th, 3rd and 5th average out to 5th but I’ll take it I guess.

I would imagine they have some kind of points system that they rate each team on, and then publish the ranking instead of the raw point score.

Chances are very good that most teams bunch up in the middle on the raw score, so there won't be that much difference between 10th and 20th. The top 5 and bottom 5 will be much further from the average. If you have two scores in the top 5, that will be enough to put you pretty high overall unless your third score is bottom of the barrel.

Remember, nobody is going to be rated high on all three measures. Teams with top goalies usually have big cap hits for those goalies, and they're usually getting results from those goalies, which hurts their prospect depth.

[Lewis_D]

Not the ranking I would have expected even by their own ranking system. But that's encouraging to see!

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I would imagine they have some kind of points system that they rate each team on, and then publish the ranking instead of the raw point score.

Chances are very good that most teams bunch up in the middle on the raw score, so there won't be that much difference between 10th and 20th. The top 5 and bottom 5 will be much further from the average. If you have two scores in the top 5, that will be enough to put you pretty high overall unless your third score is bottom of the barrel.

Remember, nobody is going to be rated high on all three measures. Teams with top goalies usually have big cap hits for those goalies, and they're usually getting results from those goalies, which hurts their prospect depth.

You made this entire rationalization up. No idea what their process was or that scores were bunched up in the category on which Flames did poorly.

Excited about Wolf but the Flames don’t have the 5th best goaltending situation in the league. Not yet at least.

[ForeverFlameFan]

If we’re 5th it’s definitely skewed wit the combined cap hit.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Yamer

Wolf has excelled at every level and is just starting to get reps in the most difficult league in the world. I think it's ok not to be sold on him just yet, but I hope Flames fans still have a lot of excitement about this player.

Everything considered, Wolf is arguably the most accomplished goaltending prospect this any franchise has ever had.

Maybe someone with a lot of time on their hands can find one but I think one would be hard pressed to find a prospect goalie with more accomplishments before he became an NHL starter.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

You made this entire rationalization up.

Well, apparently you think they just pulled the numbers out of their arses, because that's the only other alternative.

No idea what their process was or that scores were bunched up in the category on which Flames did poorly.

Look at the league standings. They are always bunched up in the middle. Any measure of current goaltending would be bunched up in the middle as well.

Excited about Wolf but the Flames don’t have the 5th best goaltending situation in the league. Not yet at least.

No duh. That's why they ranked 20th for the present and 3rd for the future.

[butterfly]

Just thought it was interesting. And it doesn't sum to zero; the mean GSAE is 3.7, which is average goaltending for a full season.

[Jay Random]

First-place Winnipeg, +46; 5th-place Rangers, +23. Difference: 23.
28th-place Chicago, –17; 32nd-place Ottawa, –34. Difference: 17.
10th-place Islanders, +9; 20th-place Seattle, –1. Difference: 10.

OK, Strange Brew, explain to me again how these numbers don't bunch up in the middle.

[butterfly]

One thing hit me as I was putting that together - GSAE tries to normalize for shot quality, but not shot volume. Therefore goalies on teams that are good at shot suppression have a much weaker chance to stand out on this metric.

I should have added in shot volume as a variable but even that is flawed reasoning as it assumes all marginal shots allowed or suppressed are of equal quality. This where NHL Edge could have given us the data so we could have fun making cool stuff with it but they chose to give us useless things like a skater's maximum speed.