Calgary Flames - Path to Contention

[ForeverFlameFan]

Huberdeau as a listed 4th liner is wild lol.

I doubt everyone pans out the way listed. And, as always, someone will come out of nowhere and be the first line player we need. You’re banking too much on the future picks.

We also need veterans on this team.

[#-3]

In general one of the problems with mapping these things out is that they are so path dependent.

Right now you have Brzustewicz in the system who many probably project as a future 2nd pairing guy, but less than a year ago, he would not have been on any of our radars in the Flames plans.

You have a UFA like Bean, who might just get a second contract with the Flames and be our future Chris Tanev steadying presence in the top for (or not).

Blue chip prospects are a little different, but usually to get 1 Zary, you need ~3 guys in the system with that potential, and it's almost impossible to know which one will work out.

I also think it's pretty scary to think of Huberdeau as a 4th liner half way into his contract. If they cannot find guys that can elevate him there is probably no recipe for this team to succeed in the next decade.




For the medium term +/-4 year window, I wouldn't even worry about planning a 4th line / 3rd pairing. But I do think we know a lot.

Centers you really on have 1 of 3 spots firmly filled in Kadri. I personally don't think the Flames have anyone organizationally who projects to be a top 9 center within the next for years, but I think they are going to put a real effort into converting a winger this year in Sharangovich or Zary who I think still both project as wingers but have experiences at center.

Wingers for the 6 spots, you have 3 guys who are likely to be here in Huberdeau, Sharangovich, Zary. I also think you have the organizational depth to say that you can probably fill 1-2 more spots from within (Gridin, Honzek, Stromgren, Coronato, Pospisil, or resigning Kuzmenko/Mantha are all guys who could be top 9 wingers 4 years from now).

D you have 3 established guys in Weegar, Andersson, Bean, but I think you project max 1-2 to still be here in 4 years. but you also should expect to develop just with organizational depth a couple more (Miromanov, Pachal, Okhotyuk, Solovyov, Parekh, Brzustewicz, Morin, Poirier are all guys who could be top 4 guys 4 years form now).

G almost doesn't bear comment, for the Flames to be competative Wolf needs to work out, or they need to pickup a good UFA, and at the same time they need to make sure they are always developing about 3 more guys.

Given all of that you are likely looking to add
2 Centers
1-3 Wingers
0-1 Defense

Hopefully 2 or 3 of those spots can be filled with very high draft picks as we expect.

Is it possible that a team that looks like this in the 26/27 season competative? yes. But I also think it's possible that this is still a bad team, or that you switch 4-5 of the names out for other guys in the system. Or that we win the McKenna lottery and 2 of the top UFAs are lining up to come here and Miami Heat this operation, there are just a lot of things that can happen.

UFA - Kadri - Zary
Huberedeau - 2026 1st - 2025 1st
Coronato - Sharangovich - Pospisil

Weegar - Parekh
Brzustewicz - Bean

Wolf

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by #-3

In general one of the problems with mapping these things out is that they are so path dependent.

Right now you have Brzustewicz in the system who many probably project as a future 2nd pairing guy, but less than a year ago, he would not have been on any of our radars in the Flames plans.

You have a UFA like Bean, who might just get a second contract with the Flames and be our future Chris Tanev steadying presence in the top for (or not).

Blue chip prospects are a little different, but usually to get 1 Zary, you need ~3 guys in the system with that potential, and it's almost impossible to know which one will work out.

I also think it's pretty scary to think of Huberdeau as a 4th liner half way into his contract. If they cannot find guys that can elevate him there is probably no recipe for this team to succeed in the next decade.




For the medium term +/-4 year window, I wouldn't even worry about planning a 4th line / 3rd pairing. But I do think we know a lot.

Centers you really on have 1 of 3 spots firmly filled in Kadri. I personally don't think the Flames have anyone organizationally who projects to be a top 9 center within the next for years, but I think they are going to put a real effort into converting a winger this year in Sharangovich or Zary who I think still both project as wingers but have experiences at center.

Wingers for the 6 spots, you have 3 guys who are likely to be here in Huberdeau, Sharangovich, Zary. I also think you have the organizational depth to say that you can probably fill 1-2 more spots from within (Gridin, Honzek, Stromgren, Coronato, Pospisil, or resigning Kuzmenko/Mantha are all guys who could be top 9 wingers 4 years from now).

D you have 3 established guys in Weegar, Andersson, Bean, but I think you project max 1-2 to still be here in 4 years. but you also should expect to develop just with organizational depth a couple more (Miromanov, Pachal, Okhotyuk, Solovyov, Parekh, Brzustewicz, Morin, Poirier are all guys who could be top 4 guys 4 years form now).

G almost doesn't bear comment, for the Flames to be competative Wolf needs to work out, or they need to pickup a good UFA, and at the same time they need to make sure they are always developing about 3 more guys.

Given all of that you are likely looking to add
2 Centers
1-3 Wingers
0-1 Defense

Hopefully 2 or 3 of those spots can be filled with very high draft picks as we expect.

Is it possible that a team that looks like this in the 26/27 season competative? yes. But I also think it's possible that this is still a bad team, or that you switch 4-5 of the names out for other guys in the system. Or that we win the McKenna lottery and 2 of the top UFAs are lining up to come here and Miami Heat this operation, there are just a lot of things that can happen.

UFA - Kadri - Zary
Huberedeau - 2026 1st - 2025 1st
Coronato - Sharangovich - Pospisil

Weegar - Parekh
Brzustewicz - Bean

Wolf

I really don't see the point in slotting names in when trying to make lines 2-3 years from now. CP does a prospect ranking every summer, last summer where did Zary and Pospsil end up? Has that changed and changed dramatically in 1 year?

When you look at rebuilds, most rebuilds had teams like Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton, Columbus at the bottom for many years. These teams didn't tank to get there, they were just bad teams with money issues or just poorly run teams. These teams' situation isn't even close to what the Flames are doing right now. The prospects and picks we already have and probably can continue to add before we even bottom out is not the same as these teams. Of course, we could end up rebuilding and being unsuccessful like these teams were for years, but going into a rebuild with as many players this team already has is quite different than the teams that have were stuck at the bottom for many years. Key is we need 2 top 3 picks, we get that we can assume with the current prospects and the many extra picks we have that we can fill the 2nd to 4th lines and 2nd and 3rd pairing defense.

We just need the top picks, manage the cap, get good returns on the valuable vets we have and find a way to get rid of Huberdeau in the next 3 years. It could go either way, we may be Buffalo or we may be Colorado but odds are better it goes well because we have so many players right now that we can just keep adding and adding if Conroy is allowed to stick to the plan. If the owners allow it, the key will be how good are the stars we draft vs the best players in the league. Hopefully we don't have a run of Yakupov, Hall and Hugent Hopkins.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I really don't see the point in slotting names in when trying to make lines 2-3 years from now. CP does a prospect ranking every summer, last summer where did Zary and Pospsil end up? Has that changed and changed dramatically in 1 year?

When you look at rebuilds, most rebuilds had teams like Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton, Columbus at the bottom for many years. These teams didn't tank to get there, they were just bad teams with money issues or just poorly run teams. These teams' situation isn't even close to what the Flames are doing right now. The prospects and picks we already have and probably can continue to add before we even bottom out is not the same as these teams. Of course, we could end up rebuilding and being unsuccessful like these teams were for years, but going into a rebuild with as many players this team already has is quite different than the teams that have were stuck at the bottom for many years. Key is we need 2 top 3 picks, we get that we can assume with the current prospects and the many extra picks we have that we can fill the 2nd to 4th lines and 2nd and 3rd pairing defense.

We just need the top picks, manage the cap, get good returns on the valuable vets we have and find a way to get rid of Huberdeau in the next 3 years. It could go either way, we may be Buffalo or we may be Colorado but odds are better it goes well because we have so many players right now that we can just keep adding and adding if Conroy is allowed to stick to the plan. If the owners allow it, the key will be how good are the stars we draft vs the best players in the league. Hopefully we don't have a run of Yakupov, Hall and Hugent Hopkins.

I generally agree, I wasn't really intending on putting names in there with my giant 3 paragraph explanation before that. But more stating we really do know they types of bodies the Flames need to add, so it's not like you are starting from ground 0, on this and it's obvious that Conroy has been able to create organization strength for young ready to play wingers, and young almost ready defense. But that these just isn't much there at Center.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Doubt that will happen. But at some point they are going to have to be able to entice decent players to come here. You’re not going to build a whole team via the draft.

Being utterly horrible probably isn’t the best way to do that.

They need to build their core through the draft and then supplement with with players on decent contracts once the core is in place. They can't plan on getting any core pieces via UFA

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Huberdeau as a listed 4th liner is wild lol.

I doubt everyone pans out the way listed. And, as always, someone will come out of nowhere and be the first line player we need. You’re banking too much on the future picks.

We also need veterans on this team.

Weegar, Kadri, Huberdeau if they remain Flames will be the vets. Guys like Zary, Pospisil will also have 3 more years of experience.

We don't want to be the Oilers and have 40 year olds.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Bonded

They need to build their core through the draft and then supplement with with players on decent contracts once the core is in place. They can't plan on getting any core pieces via UFA

I like the idea of going overboard with stockpiling picks and then if we need to make a splash to add a big player, trading for one is better than UFA additions.

Some teams can go to the UFA route but likely we can't, unless a Makar does want to come home and play in a new arena with an up-and-coming young team.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think that Conroy won't have to really worry about having to ice a competitive team when the arena opens. They just need to show a lot of promise, that's all.



In 2013-14, that team got a few standing ovations for their hard work. Then in the 2014-15 season they got a bunch of standing ovations post game in some losses. Anyone remember that? There was some genuine love for the team, and excitement for the future.


I think the team will have that again even before the arena opens up. Huska probably won't squeeze blood from the stone like Hartley did, which really helped the Flames work even harder, but he is probably the type of coach that can get long-term buy-in. He is not afraid to bench, send players to the 4th line, and even scratch players, but he also rewards players all the time. I think he is going to be a long-term coach - at least I hope so.


I mostly see it the same way as the OP, though I have (before lottery results of course):
This year: Top 2-3 pick
Next year: top 3 pick
3rd year: top 10 pick


Then they will rise beyond that. That's ok. That's going to be a lot of good young kids dazzling the crowd and playing their butts off. The fans will show up, even if playoffs is more 'hope' than anything. A fun team to watch that is likeable + the new arena smell will fill the seats. As long as Conroy keeps his head and builds through the draft, while keeping his eye out for young players who may be bargains in trade, and the occasional smart UFA signing to fill a gap, this team will just work its' way up the rankings until they are contenders.


Make a bunch of win-now moves too soon, and you push them into the playoffs, but you also cut-off their ceiling as well. I think this happened with Calgary under Treliving. They were never really contenders under his tenure, as they never actually competed for anything beyond the first round. They got eaten alive in the two times they made it out of the first round, and were never really able to build any momentum from one season to another. I hope Conroy just continues building through the draft until this team does show that it is really ready to compete. Might be year 4, might be year 5, if the Flames draft well.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Huberdeau and Kadri will be gone when this team is on the rise. Kadri is tradeable right now, he should be in a year as well if they choose not to move him now hoping for a good return.

Huberdeau will have a season with the young kids at some point that he will be moved. Might take an asset to get rid of him but there is always a short-term bad contract around the league that can be taken back. If the Flames continue to add pick after pick, they will eventually be able to afford to use 1 to get rid of him. Just might take a few years to play out.

Probably more likely that Huberdeau gets 115 points again than it is that he gets moved. We should hope for that if we are being realistic between the two options.

[metroneck]

Unless he requests a trade, or GMCC gets a ridiculous offer, I do not see Kadri moving.

Flames need to rebuild their entire Centre portfolio. To do that, they need a couple of grizzled vets that were at least a 1 or 2C in the past.

Even if they draft a slam dunk projected #1 next year, his development needs to happen behind a player like Kadri.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by metroneck

Unless he requests a trade, or GMCC gets a ridiculous offer, I do not see Kadri moving.

Flames need to rebuild their entire Centre portfolio. To do that, they need a couple of grizzled vets that were at least a 1 or 2C in the past.

Even if they draft a slam dunk projected #1 next year, his development needs to happen behind a player like Kadri.

Deepnds on who that center is. If it is Hagen, Backlund will be fine and neither Kadri nor Backlund will be ahead of him...even year 1.

[Jore]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Why do you use Edmonton as an example? Why not Florida, Colorado, Tampa, St. Louis, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA? All these champions were built on lottery wins/had top-5 picks in key positions.

Having the picks guarantees nothing, but not having the picks all but guarantees no Championship.

If the Flames can manage top-5 picks in both 2025 and 2026 and they don’t blow those picks, I’d say they’re giving themselves a legitimate chance to really turn the corner. The key, outside of gaining those top-5 picks, is as easy as Conroy being one of the top-5 general managers in the league. I love the guy, so I hope he becomes just that.

It is pretty funny that people are still having this debate in 2024.

If anything, Edmonton shows that when you have a truly elite centerpiece, you can have a bottom-3 front office in the league, mess up practically every roster and contract decision, and still bumble your way into contention. On the other hand, Flames experience the last 3.5 decades shows how hard the path to contention is when you don't have that piece. The margin for building a contention window is so much tighter, and you have to make sure you hit on every decision, which in practice I think much less likely than the draft lottery odds.

Every resource in the Flames organization right now should be dedicated to obtaining a top pick, the only reliable way to acquire these contention centerpieces. I don't like even the variance at top 5, it really needs to be top 2, timed with a special talent, and ideally 2+ times. No guarantees, but I don't see a better model.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Probably more likely that Huberdeau gets 115 points again than it is that he gets moved. We should hope for that if we are being realistic between the two options.

If you are assuming that all players straight line decline after the age of 30 and there is 0 chance that he has a better season, sure he will not be traded.

Kadri's value in his time as a Flame has been buyout/trade a 1st to get rid of him to don't trade him unless you get a 1st. This has actually happened twice in 2 years. Could not be more up and down with him.

[Vinny01]

I have been having this conversation in the trade thread but I believe the organizational goal will be to have a team that can contend for the playoffs in year 1 of the new building and be a cup contender in the first 5 years of the new rink. In many cases it appears teams have been winning around a decade after their superstars were picked. Florida won with 3 of the top 4 picks from 2014 on their roster along with the 2nd overall pick from 2013 and the 6th overall pick from 2016. Colorado won in 22 with the first pick in 2013, second pick in 2011 and 4th pick from 2017. Tampa won around a decade after Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov were drafted. Chicago is the exception and even the Pens won 2/3 of their cups 11-13 years after Crosby/Malkin were picked they were just lucky to get one within the first 5 years of Crosby’s career. The Oilers are close with McDavid and Draisaitl in their 10-11 years since being picked next year.

Realistically a cup win for us comes in the 2033-2038 timeframe.

I think tanking for top 5 (3 preferably) picks in the next 2 drafts is key. Hopefully the Devils stub their toe and send us the 11th pick in 25 and Vegas face plants and we get a top 10 pick in 2026. I think Andersson is a big chip they will still move but outside of that I do not see many more pieces torn away. The key will be not only hitting on our upcoming top 10 picks but having guys like Zary, Wolf, Coronato, Honzek all become somewhat impact players in the NHL. In 2013 the Flames benefitted from having guys like Backlund, Brodie, Ferland, Gaudreau already in the system so when we started to see the team turn over to a younger group there were key pieces in place

[Robbob]

I think the wild card is the next 2 drafts. One of the things that is benefiting the Flames rebuild is the stock piled picks the last few years and having a couple years of development under their belt before the Flames get a shot at that difference maker at the top of the draft.

So as a bunch of these players start becoming ready, they are joining the team while that difference maker is on their ELC. Kind of like the Chicago build where Kane and Towes were on their ELC and they had a bunch in that 23-26 range making that next step. Crawford, Bolland, Keith, Fraser, Byfuglien, Burish, Bickell, Versteeg, and Brouwer gave the Hawks depth through out the lineup.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I think the wild card is the next 2 drafts. One of the things that is benefiting the Flames rebuild is the stock piled picks the last few years and having a couple years of development under their belt before the Flames get a shot at that difference maker at the top of the draft.

So as a bunch of these players start becoming ready, they are joining the team while that difference maker is on their ELC. Kind of like the Chicago build where Kane and Towes were on their ELC and they had a bunch in that 23-26 range making that next step. Crawford, Bolland, Keith, Fraser, Byfuglien, Burish, Bickell, Versteeg, and Brouwer gave the Hawks depth through out the lineup.

I'm looking at our situation and thinking it could be similar to Chicago, but we need the top picks in the next 2 drafts and we can't end up with the Dylan Strome's, Jesse Puljuravi's, Laine's, Dubois's or the many other top 5 picks that just did not pan out. Winning the lottery and picking 1st once would probably be needed and top 3 twice.

[dino7c]

I still think the Vegas pick could be massive...just have a feeling about it

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I have been having this conversation in the trade thread but I believe the organizational goal will be to have a team that can contend for the playoffs in year 1 of the new building and be a cup contender in the first 5 years of the new rink. In many cases it appears teams have been winning around a decade after their superstars were picked. Florida won with 3 of the top 4 picks from 2014 on their roster along with the 2nd overall pick from 2013 and the 6th overall pick from 2016. Colorado won in 22 with the first pick in 2013, second pick in 2011 and 4th pick from 2017. Tampa won around a decade after Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov were drafted. Chicago is the exception and even the Pens won 2/3 of their cups 11-13 years after Crosby/Malkin were picked they were just lucky to get one within the first 5 years of Crosby’s career. The Oilers are close with McDavid and Draisaitl in their 10-11 years since being picked next year.

Realistically a cup win for us comes in the 2033-2038 timeframe.

I think tanking for top 5 (3 preferably) picks in the next 2 drafts is key. Hopefully the Devils stub their toe and send us the 11th pick in 25 and Vegas face plants and we get a top 10 pick in 2026. I think Andersson is a big chip they will still move but outside of that I do not see many more pieces torn away. The key will be not only hitting on our upcoming top 10 picks but having guys like Zary, Wolf, Coronato, Honzek all become somewhat impact players in the NHL. In 2013 the Flames benefitted from having guys like Backlund, Brodie, Ferland, Gaudreau already in the system so when we started to see the team turn over to a younger group there were key pieces in place

IMO there is a huge difference between being a contender and winning it all. If things go well and they execute on being at the bottom and hit on that pick, they will be a contender sooner. But yes, they might not win it all the 1st few years they are in the mix either.

Toronto, Edmonton, Tampa, Florida, Washington, Pittsburgh, Colorado were all playoff teams right away or very soon after getting their guys and these teams were mainly locks to be a playoff teams within a few years of drafting at the top. But they got the right guys, we need to draft at the top and those guys need to be truly elite not just top drafts picks that are good players.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

To be honest, I'm not really expecting playoffs for the next 5 years. I think 2029-2030 is the next realistic season Flames can make the playoffs. We're pretty much Chicago / San Jose bad for the next few years.

I hope the organization doesn't think like this

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I think once the new arena is open, the pressure from Edwards’s/ownership will take a significant uptick.

I think Conroy and his team of scouts/exec’s can pull it off but if they misfire on two-three higher picks, I think we will see this organization fall into similar ways of building the team as we have seen for the past 20 years or so. ie: trading picks for players and questionable UFA signings that are intended to get the team into the playoffs and hope for the best.

Conroy has about 3-4 years grace. After that, rubber is going to hit the road.

Rightly or wrongly I don’t think Flames ownership will tolerate what we’ve seen in Montreal as an example. I think the rebuild window here is going to be shorter.

I think you're right. This has been Conroy's messaging around retool... they're going to start making moves and trading away picks likely after the 2026 draft if they feel the team start to get traction, and I think it will. It's unlikely they have the patience for anything else unless the team really shows it's still not ready.

On your next post around drafting first overall, to me, this is why it's so important they draft top 3 in the next couple of drafts and hopefully win one of the lotteries. They won't have the patience for a long rebuild, unless, like the rebuild itself, it's thrust upon them.