“Make it to the playoffs an anything could happen"

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

IF the Flames make the playoffs they will have both these things though

they are 8th since December, Markstom is on fire

8th is not 1st and Dec 1 to mid January is not Dec 1 to April.

The Flames have no chance.

Every year you can pick a few bottom 8 teams that could be a cup contender due to poor regular season. Flames are not one of them

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

8th is not 1st and Dec 1 to mid January is not Dec 1 to April.

The Flames have no chance.

Every year you can pick a few bottom 8 teams that could be a cup contender due to poor regular season. Flames are not one of them

thanks tips

IF they make it their record will need to be at or near the top of the league in the 2nd half...reading is important

also, weren't you the guy pumping the Leafs? lol

Flames can actually win in regulation at least

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Sure, but the odds are very much against the Flames maintaining this for the rest of the season. Really, any team that goes on a hot streak can say "all we have to do is maintain this and we're good!" But the reality is that it very seldom happens.

That's why I said IF

this Flames streak has some of you guys beside yourself

lol and it's hilarious

obviously the odds aren't good, duh

The league has never had more parity though...like who is actually that good? Flames or no Flames I think its wide open this year. Jets/Canucks won't be huge favourites in round 1 IMO

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by dino7c

That's why I said IF

this Flames streak has some of you guys beside yourself

lol and it's hilarious

obviously the odds aren't good, duh

The league has never had more parity though...like who is actually that good? Flames or no Flames I think its wide open this year. Jets/Canucks won't be huge favourites in round 1 IMO

The only funny thing is you convincing yourself that we're super mad or something, so you can convince yourself that you're a better fan or something.

Will say though, the only thing that would kinda p### me off is if the Flames once again missed the playoffs by 1-2 points and ended up with the 16th pick again. Around and around we go...

As for favorites this year, if Hellebuyck and/or Demko continue this level of play, they can very well carry their teams through multiple playoff rounds. Admittedly Markstrom could too (or he could wilt again like he did vs the Oilers).

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Was St.L really an underdog ? After Bennington came up and started they had one of the best records in the NHL and just continued into the playoffs - similar to the Flames in 04.

Okay, but we have to avoid cherry-picking.

If STL 'isn't really an underdog', then, by the same logic, teams that struggled down the stretch 'aren't really favorites', so they should count as underdogs if they win the cup.

It's the same argument, you can't have it both ways. (Same is true of the LA argument)

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

thanks tips

IF they make it their record will need to be at or near the top of the league in the 2nd half...reading is important

also, weren't you the guy pumping the Leafs? lol

Flames can actually win in regulation at least

I said the Leafs can win with the Nylander contract but not this year. They need to fix some holes on that team

But it’s ridiculous to try and put the Flames ahead of the leafs this year. Old rah rah Dino is back because we won a few games

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I mean IF the Flames make the playoffs they will have one of the best records after November

they are already top 10 in that time

If the Flames continue to play at a top level for the rest of the season and entered the playoffs in 6th in the conference with 99 pts (like StL did) I would argue they are not an underdog - or not a “get in and anything can happen” team - they would be one of the hottest teams for the last 50 games of the season.

I would love the see the stats on success in the 2nd half of a season vs playoff success . A team can start slow figuring out a new system , coach , or trying to find the right goalie

STL and the Flames in 04 entered as 2 of the hottest teams in the league . Florida last season was one of the best teams over last quarter (maybe longer( of the season

This isn’t the same as a team that all season long in constantly just battling for the last spot .

If the Flames keep up their play to me that’s a better representation of who they are then the first 20 games . Can they ? I personally don’t think so but we will see that’s what makes sports exciting .

What I wouldn’t want to see if the Flames hit a rough spot , and then try to sneak into 8th . If they keep playing at this pace it’s a different question

[blankall]

Originally Posted by dino7c

That's why I said IF

this Flames streak has some of you guys beside yourself

lol and it's hilarious

obviously the odds aren't good, duh

The league has never had more parity though...like who is actually that good? Flames or no Flames I think its wide open this year. Jets/Canucks won't be huge favourites in round 1 IMO

There isn't a single team that looks unbeatable.

I would like to see the team hedge their bets with the UFAs this year, similar to Nashville last year. We've already avoided a major bullet, in that Lindholm is not getting that $9 mil x 8 years contract anymore.

I'd like to see the team sell off Lindholm. Re-sign Hanifin and then go for it. A Re-signed Hanifin can always be moved later. Lindholm looks like the 3rd most important centre right now, behind Kadri and Backluind. He can be moved and the team can still compete.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Wrong answer. There are no 3/18 odds and the Flames have never had 3/18 odds in the last 33 years (with '04 being the one exception). So the odds for this team have been more like 1/33 or something in that ballpark.

The 2 Kings teams had Sutter, who utilizes a system that is specifically meant for playoff success, and the correct type of roster construction that is suited for that system.

The Blues had the hottest goalie in the world for 6 months and one of the best records in the league in the 2nd half of that season.

So these are special circumstances that have never applied to the Flames, outside of '04.

No, Mathgod, they are not special circumstances.

[Roof-Daddy]

Sell sell sell

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I said the Leafs can win with the Nylander contract but not this year. They need to fix some holes on that team

But it’s ridiculous to try and put the Flames ahead of the leafs this year. Old rah rah Dino is back because we won a few games

Is it?

Records after 60 minutes:

TOR: 13-12-16
CGY: 17-18-8

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I said the Leafs can win with the Nylander contract but not this year. They need to fix some holes on that team

But it’s ridiculous to try and put the Flames ahead of the leafs this year. Old rah rah Dino is back because we won a few games

Flames have more regulation wins (playoffs guy)
one less win overall

I'm pointing out what a joke the Leafs are, "fix" their holes with barely enough cap to ice a team as is

okay guy

[dino7c]

And you guys aren't even reading

IF the Flames make the playoffs they will have an great record from December on, one of the best in the league

do the math, surely a "mathgod" could figure it out

[SuperMatt18]

Making the playoffs is never inherently bad, it's always better to get in the playoffs vs. not.

The issue is less about the one off results when you look at a single season, but when you look at the results of teams over the longer course of multiple years. The goal should never be "Just make the playoffs", the goal should be "win the cup", and generally the way to win a cup is to consistently be a top 10 team over the course of 3+ years.

The problem is if you build a roster that has a "top end" of "just make the playoffs", instead of trying to build a top 5 team then you're unlikely to win a cup - even if you do make a Cinderella run one year.

If I broke the finalists into groups I'd say:

True Cinderella Team: 2006-Edmonton, 2021: Canadians

2/36 finalists, 0/18 Cups - these teams were the runs that "just got in" and hadn't really been built as a team that had consistent top 10 finishes in the years prior or after the cup run. Limited sustained success with that roster before or after the run.

Edit: On second glance Philly and Nashville didn't belong in this group and were moved to the next group. Flyers had 88 points the year they made the finals but had 106 and 103 point seasons the two years after. Preds had 94 points in their finals year, but 117 points and won a Presidents trophy the next year, and 100 points the year after that.

Good Team caught in below average season: 2010: Flyers, 2012: Kings, 2014: Rangers, 2016: Sharks, 2017: Predators, 2019: Blues, 2023: Panthers

These teams all had top 10 league finishes for multiple years in either the years directly before, or directly after their cup runs. Good teams that had a history of some success even if not in the middle of a great season where they were top 10 in the league.

7/36 Finalists, 2/18 Cup wins

Mediocre Teams that were in the middle of a uncharacteristically good season: 2006: Carolina (missed the playoffs the 2 years prior, and 2 years after); 2012: Devils (missed the playoffs the season prior, and 5 seasons after),

2/36 Finalists, 1/18 cup winners

Teams that were consistently top 10 teams: 2007: Ducks, 2008:Wings / Penguins, 2009: Wings/Penguins, 2010: Blackhawks, 2011: Canucks/Bruins, 2013: Blackhawks/Bruins, 2014: Kings/Rangers, 2015: Blackhawks/Lightning 2016: Penguins, 2017: Penguins, 2018: Capitals/Knights, 2019: Bruins, 2020: Lightning/Stars, 2021: Lightning, 2022: Avs/Lightning, 2023: Knights

25/36 Finalists
15/18 Cup Winners

The goal needs to be a team that can consistent finish in the top 10 of the league / top 2-3 of your own division for a 3+ year stretch. Only if you have that consistent success will you have the best chance to actually win a cup.

The Flames built a team that in good years were top 10 teams but didn't do it consistently enough to ever truly be seen in that true contender group that tends to win cups.

And in the end making the playoffs isn't the problem - the problem is if your entire strategy is "just make the playoffs" or if you change your entire long term strategy to "just make the playoffs".

Your strategy needs to be "What decisions will consistently make me a top 10 team" and if that means maybe you trade some UFAs even if you have a chance to finish 16th and make the playoffs then you should trade those UFAS. Doesn't mean making the playoffs is bad though, it's only bad if you let one shot of making the playoffs influence your long term strategy to make short term decisions.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Is it?

Records after 60 minutes:

TOR: 13-12-16
CGY: 17-18-8

Leafs have a significantly better chance at the cup this year than the Flames.

We aren't Oilers fans here. They all of a sudden are back beaking and I can see why. 8 in a row then 10 in a row. But we haven't done anything to cause for a big what if we get in thread, yet? This is much worse than what we get from up north.

Put your pom poms back in your closet. This team has no chance.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Leafs have a significantly better chance at the cup this year than the Flames.

We aren't Oilers fans here. They all of a sudden are back beaking and I can see why. 8 in a row then 10 in a row. But we haven't done anything to cause for a big what if we get in thread, yet? This is much worse than what we get from up north.

Put your pom poms back in your closet. This team has no chance.

lol this guy

put your blue and white pom poms away

13 regulation wins on January 16th is laughable...regulation wins are more in line with what it takes in the playoffs

no shootout or 3 on 3 in the playoffs sorry

like have you looked at the standings? Leafs will be lucky to get in at this rate

Devils, Pens, Caps, Islanders...right on their tails. Couple more losses for the Leafs and they could be 12th (although they can win tonight)

Also the mighty Oil have 2 points on the Flames despite their amazing run with the softest travel schedule in the history of the western conference

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Making the playoffs is never inherently bad, it's always better to get in the playoffs vs. not.

The issue is less about the one off results when you look at a single season, but when you look at the results of teams over the longer course of multiple years. The goal should never be "Just make the playoffs", the goal should be "win the cup", and generally the way to win a cup is to consistently be a top 10 team over the course of 3+ years.

The problem is if you build a roster that has a "top end" of "just make the playoffs", instead of trying to build a top 5 team then you're unlikely to win a cup - even if you do make a Cinderella run one year.

If I broke the finalists into groups I'd say:

True Cinderella Team: 2006-Edmonton, 2010-Philadelphia, 2017: Predators 2021: Canadians

4/36 finalists, 0/18 Cups - these teams were the runs that "just got in" and hadn't really been built as a team that had consistent top 10 finishes in the years prior or after the cup run. Limited sustained success with that roster before or after the run (Even Philly and Nashville might be borderline here).

Good Team caught in below average season: 2012: Kings, 2014: Rangers, 2016: Sharks, 2019: Blues, 2023: Panthers

These teams all had top 10 league finishes for multiple years in either the years directly before, or directly after their cup runs. Good teams that had a history of some success even if not in the middle of a great season.

5/36 Finalists, 2/18 Cup wins

Mediocre Teams that were in the middle of a uncharacteristically good season: 2006: Carolina (missed the playoffs the 2 years prior, and 2 years after); 2012: Devils (missed the playoffs the season prior, and 5 seasons after),

2/36 Finalists, 1/18 cup winners

Teams that were consistently 10 teams: 2007: Ducks, 2008:Wings / Penguins, 2009: Wings/Penguins, 2010: Blackhawks, 2011: Canucks/Bruins, 2013: Blackhawks/Bruins, 2014: Kings/Rangers, 2015: Blackhawks/Lightning 2016: Penguins, 2017: Penguins, 2018: Capitals/Knights, 2019: Bruins, 2020: Lightning/Stars, 2021: Lightning, 2022: Avs/Lightning, 2023: Knights

25/36 Finalists
15/18 Cup Winners

The goal needs to be a team that can consistent finish in the top 10 of the league / top 2-3 of your own division for a 3+ year stretch. Only if you have that consistent success will you have the best chance to actually win a cup.

The Flames built a team that in good years were top 10 teams but didn't do it consistently enough to ever truly be seen in that true contender group that tends to win cups.

And in the end making the playoffs isn't the problem - the problem is if your entire strategy is "just make the playoff" or if you change your entire long term strategy to "just make the playoffs".

Your strategy needs to be "What decisions will consistently make me a top 10 team" and if that means maybe you trade some UFAs even if you have a chance to finish 16th and make the playoffs then you should trade those UFAS.

So, when you do some real analysis and actually dig into bottom teams going on Cinderella runs, it's not that common and rarely do they win it all? And some of these bottom teams are actually top teams that had poor regular seasons? Thanks for this post

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

lol this guy

put your blue and white pom poms away

13 regulation wins on January 16th is laughable...regulation wins are more in line with what it takes in the playoffs

no shootout or 3 on 3 in the playoffs sorry

like have you looked at the standings? Leafs will be lucky to get in at this rate

Devils, Pens, Caps, Islanders...right on their tails. Couple more losses for the Leafs and they could be 12th (although they can win tonight)

Also the mighty Oil have 2 points on the Flames despite their amazing run with the softest travel schedule in the history of the western conference

I don't think the Leafs are a contender, but this years Flames? Unreal this thread even started up today looking at this team. Coleman is carrying this team, come on are we really a contender? Yikes

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I don't think the Leafs are a contender, but this years Flames? Unreal this thread even started up today looking at this team. Coleman is carrying this team, come on are we really a contender? Yikes

who said they were currently? please quote

read really slowly please

IF the Flames make the playoffs, IF and I can't stress this enough IF

they will be one of the top teams in the league, probably top 5 at least from December on. Markstom will also likely be in the Vezina convo at that point

IF

nobody is saying keep all the UFAs and trade the first for Duclair

Relax guy

Leafs are brutal though and they aren't getting better, too much SN for you

Leaf's funking blow, 13 regulation wins...the "no chance" Flames have 17 and are retooling or whatever

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Leafs have a significantly better chance at the cup this year than the Flames.

We aren't Oilers fans here. They all of a sudden are back beaking and I can see why. 8 in a row then 10 in a row. But we haven't done anything to cause for a big what if we get in thread, yet? This is much worse than what we get from up north.

Put your pom poms back in your closet. This team has no chance.

How? And Why?

As per the post you quoted, their record is only better due to 3on3 OT and SOs (neither of which exist in the playoffs), and they are in a tougher division.

Instead of starting with 'put your pom poms away', how about making an actual argument.