Discussion point - reason for lack of trades this off season

[robertsfanatic]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

sclerotic

that is one hell of a word, well done! i had to Google it.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Too many long term contracts in the NHL. If I'm an owner my goal is to get NFL style non fully guaranteed contracts. My minimum settlement is maximizing deals to 5 years.

With the cheaper short term second contract mostly gone...you now have two long term high price contracts in a players career. So teams get tied to their own players.

In the NFL teams cut good players quite frequently to clear cap space which creates more player movement through free agency. But there is not much for trades outside the draft. I think this is likely where the NHL will end up.

MLB is about the only league left where you get real trades now.

There would have to be another lockout/strike to unguarantee contracts. That 8th year to resign instead of 7 in FA is just killing teams. Sign for 8 years, more money but less AAV and throw in NTCs and NMCs.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Looking at Capfirendly, 18 of 32 teams have less than a 1M in cap space right now. 12 are in the red. Once Bouchard signs in Edmonton that gets bumped to 19 and 13. There isn't a lot of room right now to make trade as 2/3 of the league have painted themselves into a corner. Every GM knows this and that probably makes the prices higher as those ELC contracts are worth their weight in gold when the cap is flat.

Right now it is a game of chicken to see who blinks. Unfortunately for the Flames, they always seem to be unlucky in terms of timing. When they had cap space, they couldn't weaponize it back in 2013-14. One of the worst season the franchise had was probably one of the worst draft classes. Now, when they want to make moves, they really are one of the few people on the dance floor.

It's not luck. It's just a product of the strategy the franchise follows. They are well aware of the stock certain draft classes have and are pegged to have in advance.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

There would have to be another lockout/strike to unguarantee contracts. That 8th year to resign instead of 7 in FA is just killing teams. Sign for 8 years, more money but less AAV and throw in NTCs and NMCs.

I expect it to be the hill both sides are not willing to die on in the next negotiation. Owners will go after this and players will do everything they can to keep the current guarantees they get on contracts.

[Locke]

*Checks Capfriendly*

Yeah, most teams dont have any money.

[gvitaly]

I think the biggest reason for the lack of trades this off-season is that the league was projecting the player COVID debt to be paid out in full last year. That resulted in a much higher cap jump estimates during the season. At some point I was hearing as much as $4M increase being floated around.

Bettman wanted the NHLPA to give him something for increasing the cap by more than $1M. The players refused, so now everyone is waiting for the huge cap increase next year. It resulted in the league being capped out, and more players than ever betting on themselves taking very low contracts. Why give up assets in a trade if you can get a similar player for cheap?

Another reason was the 2023 draft. The strength and depth of this drafted made GMs reluctant to part with 1st and 2nd round picks at the draft.

Right now most rosters are set, and you have to send the same amount of salary you get back. Even the teams that could retain salary, are getting very close to the cap and have already used some of their retention slots.

Here are the retention slots and cap space available for the bottom feeders:
MTL, $6.7M(LTIR), 1 retention slot
ARI $3.9M, 2 retention slots
SJS $3.99M, 1 retention slot
DET $5.2M, 2 retention slots, might be a bubble team this year
CHI $12.8M, 2 retention slot
ANA $16.6M, 3 retention slots, need to sign Zegras

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

It's not luck. It's just a product of the strategy the franchise follows. They are well aware of the stock certain draft classes have and are pegged to have in advance.

With draft classes there is some truth to that, but leveraging cap space was definitely a point of time which they were unlucky. They tried desperately to use the cap space and were on the verge to add a couple first rounders. Robidas used his NTC even though he was going to be bought out (ended up getting bought out by Dallas anyways)and Carolina backed out sending Ward. Flames would help Carolina a few years later (more on that later). My point is, as more teams moved to the cap celling, the premium when up where teams were giving prospects and picks for cap space.

Funny enough the one trade the Flames did leverage their cap space in 2017 might turn out into something.

Flames acquired Edie Lack (50%), Ryan Murphy (who was bought out) and a 7th round pick for a 6th rounder and Kanzig. That 7th rounder was Wolf.

[FlamesAddiction]

NHL - 242/1,026 or 24% of the players movement clauses.



That has to be part of it IMO. None of the other leagues even come close to that number.



NBA - 10/450 or 2.2% players with movement clauses.

NFL - 5/1,696 or 0.3% players with movement clauses.

MLB - 20/750 or 2.7% players with trade protection.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

NHL - 242/1,026 or 24% of the players movement clauses.



That has to be part of it IMO. None of the other leagues even come close to that number.



NBA - 10/450 or 2.2% players with movement clauses.

NFL - 5/1,696 or 0.3% players with movement clauses.

MLB - 20/750 or 2.7% players with trade protection.

And for players with 6+ years of NHL experience, I’d wager that number is much higher than 24%. It’s one of the reason established star for established star trades are so rare these days.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It’s one of the reason established star for established star trades are so rare these days.

Do those sorts of trades happen any more frequently in the other big sports?

[CliffFletcher]

I don’t know. But they certainly happened more in the NHL in the past.

[Bubba17]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

NHL - 242/1,026 or 24% of the players movement clauses.



That has to be part of it IMO. None of the other leagues even come close to that number.



NBA - 10/450 or 2.2% players with movement clauses.

NFL - 5/1,696 or 0.3% players with movement clauses.

MLB - 20/750 or 2.7% players with trade protection.

This is slightly misleading based on the fact of the 10 and 5 rule in baseball. If a player has 10 years in majors and 5 years on the same team he can't be traded without his approval.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by getbak

Do those sorts of trades happen any more frequently in the other big sports?

Not very often anymore. In pretty much all sports economic factors are what drives trades. In the NBA you get some disgruntled guys who force their way off teams and get a bit more trading of higher calibre players. NFL trades are few and far between and generally only involve draft picks. MLB is usually smaller teams sending stars elsewhere before free agency. Although you get more prospect for prospect/young player deals because you can't trade draft picks.

For the most part trading in the NHL is dead outside the deadline and the draft. Worse teams are so limited by cap and NTC's that they gave out that player movement is now very limited and will be for a long time.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Locke

*Checks Capfriendly*

Yeah, most teams dont have any money.

How does the trade deadline work again? Do teams get some cap relief for expiring contracts?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Bubba17

This is slightly misleading based on the fact of the 10 and 5 rule in baseball. If a player has 10 years in majors and 5 years on the same team he can't be traded without his approval.

I Googled it and found a site that said 20 players currently qualify for that rule.

In the NHL, it isn't just star players that have movement protection, but a lot of average players too.