What should it take to trade for 1st Overall?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Odds are he’s as good as a guy like Mackinnon or Matthews
Those guys add tens of millions to franchise value
A small number of teams could offer a compelling package such as the Ducks
But certainly not the Flames

If you were the Blackhawks, would you do the deal I proposed above from the Flames?

[Jason14h]

Assuming Bedard demanded a trade - NJ could be interesting

D - Simon Nemec (2nd pick last year)
C - Nico Hischier
2nd round 2023 (They don't have a first in 2023)
1st pick 2024

Something like that at least gets them to pick up the phone. I'm not super familiar with the rest of NJ's non NHL talent but they could certainly make a run at a trade

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

If you were the Blackhawks, would you do the deal I proposed above from the Flames?

Nope I'll just take Bedard and the clean cap and build my team

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Really? That is interesting to me. NO possible package for Bedard?

What about the next 5 yrs of 1sts, 2nds, 3rds, Lindholm, Kadri w/ 90% salary retained, Hanifin salary retained, Wolf, and Rasmus Andersson?

No package? Really?

There's a package likely possible from every team, let's be honest. The kid is great, but will he really be the next McDavid, Makar, or Mackinnon? Odds are not.

It’s not just a hockey decision with Bedard. It’s a business decision. You can build a market around him that will likely last for years. Jerseys, season tickets, advertising, etc. While you could do the same thing with the guys you mentioned… the market would be much shorter and likely less exciting than the newest prodigy entering the league. MacKinnon is signed long term but he may not be as dominant for the last half of that contract. McDavid is a UFA in 3 years and will likely get $17 million per year on his next deal - likely on a new team. Similar case with Makar in 4 years (although I think he resigns with Colorado).

With Bedard, you get a very marketable player who also likely will be the new face of the game within the next 3-4 years… and you could keep him for much longer than anyone else on that list.

I agree he may not be as good as those guys but the possibility that he will be is higher than any other draft pick for the last few years and likely the next few years. That’s why I agree with others that there is likely no package out there that gets you Bedard.

As strange as it sounds… Vegas just won the cup and if they’re owner offered to completely swap rosters and picks this year with Chicago… I still think Chicago says no.

However… this is a fun topic to help pass the offseason so I’ll say McDavid + Edmonton’s unprotected 1st round pick in either 2024 or 2025 - the choice would be up to Chicago. This likely protects Chicago a little bit even if McDavid chooses to leave when his deal is up. Edmonton instantly becomes a lottery team again once McPowerplay is gone so that pick in either 2024 or 2025 has a real shot at 1st overall.

I assume if McDavid was traded, Draisaitl would instantly go public with his own trade demand which makes the oilers basically an AHL team. On the off-chance Draisaitl doesn’t demand a trade right away and the oilers instead finish as a team picking just outside the top ten in the 2024 draft… Draisaitl likely tells the oilers he won’t re-sign when his contract expires and the oilers trade him in summer of 2024. Chicago would then likely choose to claim the 2025 pick which would for sure be in the top 3-4 of that draft.

[Locke]

Maybe an unmarked Van with some burlap sacks and zipties and duct tape? Break into the arena and steal the Golden #1 pick card?

Thats how it works right? Like a 'Bearer Bond?' Whomsoever holds the Golden Card selects first?

We could do it Ocean's 11 style!

Or you just roll up to Bedard's house, kidnap him, give him a haircut, change his name...steal his dog as leverage...

The point being, I dont think the Blackhawks would give up that pick at gunpoint.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Nope I'll just take Bedard and the clean cap and build my team

Really? You really value Bedard over 5x 1sts, 5x 2nds, 5x 3rds, Lindholm, salary retained on Kadri, salary retained on Hanifin, Andersson, Wolf, etc.?

That's 20 assets, many of them very high in value, for Bedard and you say no?

[Mindtravellee]

Would depend on the year. What would Owen Power of been worth? 3 years of McDavid?

With Beaded, starting at a Franchise player + (arguable a complete first line in some aspects, whether from players, prospects and picks)

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by stemit14

It’s not just a hockey decision with Bedard. It’s a business decision. You can build a market around him that will likely last for years. Jerseys, season tickets, advertising, etc. while you could do the same thing with the guys you mentioned… the market would be much shorter and likely less exciting than the newest prodigy entering the league. MacKinnon is signed long term but he may not be as dominant for the last half of that contract. McDavid is a UFA in 3 years and will likely get $17 million per year on his next deal - likely on a new team. Similar case with Makar in 4 years (although I think he resigns with Colorado).

With Bedard, you get a very marketable player who also likely will be the new face of the game within the next 3-4 years… and you could keep him for much longer than anyone else on that list.

I agree he may not be as good as those guys but the possibility that he will be is higher than any other draft pick for the last few years and likely the next few years. That’s why I agree with others that there is likely no package out there that gets you Bedard.

As strange as it sounds… Vegas just won the cup and if they’re owner offered to completely swap rosters and picks this year with Chicago… I still think Chicago says no.

That's fair. I guess where I disagree is that I think you make more money by winning Cups than by having one player that is extremely marketable.

For example I suspect more jersey sales, fan engagement, ticket sales, revenue, etc. are being generated by the Vegas Golden Knights than McDavid's jersey sales. Could be wrong about that but multiple playoff appearances and all the revenues and excitement and longevity breathed into a franchise by winning is likely better than one player.

I also find this conversation interesting in that, I bet similar discussions were had when Lindros was flipped. The Avalanche then went onto win the Cup and have a dynasty team for like a decade and while Lindros was amazing, the Flyers I bet if they had to re-do that trade don't do it.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Really? You really value Bedard over 5x 1sts, 5x 2nds, 5x 3rds, Lindholm, salary retained on Kadri, salary retained on Hanifin, Andersson, Wolf, etc.?

That's 20 assets, many of them very high in value, for Bedard and you say no?

We’ll 2 guys are FAs. So I’m paying 16ish million to keep them and they will be post prime players by the time I compete

And I get a lot of picks . 2nd and 3rds are whatever , lottery shoots

So do I get anyone close to Bedard for 5 firsts ? Maybe if Flames bottom out for a few years , but I am betting the Flames with Bedard and a cap room aren’t bottoming out , so a bunch of mid / later pics

You win with superstars not late firsts.

As a Flames fan missing the true superstar (or trading one on MT) the lack of playoff success shows what happens without superstars

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Assuming Bedard demanded a trade - NJ could be interesting

D - Simon Nemec (2nd pick last year)
C - Nico Hischier
2nd round 2023 (They don't have a first in 2023)
1st pick 2024

Something like that at least gets them to pick up the phone. I'm not super familiar with the rest of NJ's non NHL talent but they could certainly make a run at a trade

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Nope I'll just take Bedard and the clean cap and build my team

Help me make sense of how you value the NJ package you propose over the Flames package I propose. Anyway, sounds like you're open to it at least.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

We’ll 2 guys are FAs. So I’m paying 16ish million to keep them and they will be post prime players by the time I compete

And I get a lot of picks . 2nd and 3rds are whatever , lottery shoots

So do I get anyone close to Bedard for 5 firsts ? Maybe if Flames bottom out for a few years , but I am betting the Flames with Bedard and a cap room aren’t bottoming out , so a bunch of mid / later pics

You win with superstars not late firsts.

As a Flames fan missing the true superstar (or trading one on MT) the lack of playoff success shows what happens without superstars

That's a fair point, let's assume Lindholm and Hanifin are coming in signed. I assume that changes the calc for you?

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Help me make sense of how you value the NJ package you propose over the Flames package I propose. Anyway, sounds like you're open to it at least.

A 2nd overall D and a 20 year old 80 pt Center make a good starting point IF Bedard demanded a trade

Clean cap and starting fresh to build a team together makes more sense then acquiring guys in their prime who will be in their 30s and expensive by the time the team is serious to compete

I guess Wolf is the wild card if someone believes he’s a future #1

I don’t think the league values him that highly atm but I could easily be wrong

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

If you were the Blackhawks, would you do the deal I proposed above from the Flames?

Nope.
It’s a lot of stuff but won’t add the value to my franchise that Bedard will.
Think about what guys like these have meant to franchises. It alters their future completely
A bunch of stuff won’t do that

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

That's fair. I guess where I disagree is that I think you make more money by winning Cups than by having one player that is extremely marketable.

For example I suspect more jersey sales, fan engagement, ticket sales, revenue, etc. are being generated by the Vegas Golden Knights than McDavid's jersey sales. Could be wrong about that but multiple playoff appearances and all the revenues and excitement and longevity breathed into a franchise by winning is likely better than one player.

I also find this conversation interesting in that, I bet similar discussions were had when Lindros was flipped. The Avalanche then went onto win the Cup and have a dynasty team for like a decade and while Lindros was amazing, the Flyers I bet if they had to re-do that trade don't do it.

The only reason for that is Forsberg
If he didn’t turn into a franchise player himself it’s not a good deal. The rest of the pieces they got were immaterial

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Nope.
It’s a lot of stuff but won’t add the value to my franchise that Bedard will.
Think about what guys like these have meant to franchises. It alters their future completely
A bunch of stuff won’t do that

15 picks with 10 in the first two rounds? No value?

What about Coronato added and/or some of prospects as well. Just more stuff?

I’m a bit surprised at the insane overvaluing of Bedard in here. I’m not even sold the guy is a “generational talent”. He is small, his defensive play was wanting. I dunno… interesting that people think Calgary literally has no combo of assets to make it work.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

The only reason for that is Forsberg
If he didn’t turn into a franchise player himself it’s not a good deal. The rest of the pieces they got were immaterial

Okay, but that doesn’t make much sense. This is the same logic as saying “X team wouldn’t be so good if they didn’t have Y player”.

But they do, so they are that good. The package included Forsberg, so it was that good. A similar trade could be made for Bedard.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Yup it’s just more stuff
This isn’t insane over valuing. It’s understanding the value of franchise altering stars
He’s the best prospect since McDavid
Easily.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Okay, but that doesn’t make much sense. This is the same logic as saying “X team wouldn’t be so good if they didn’t have Y player”.

But they do, so they are that good. The package included Forsberg, so it was that good. A similar trade could be made for Bedard.

The Flames don’t have a prospect anywhere near as good as Forsberg

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Yup it’s just more stuff
This isn’t insane over valuing. It’s understanding the value of franchise altering stars
He’s the best prospect since McDavid
Easily.

Well you’d better hope so if you’re turning down 20 high value assets. That’s quite the gamble.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Quantity of assets doesn’t matter. The risk would be in trading him for a bunch of random stuff