[Game Takes] Avalanche 4 Flames 1

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Lol

TLDR; the xGF model does not reflect the work a goalie has to do

The Flames stuff a lot of pucks in to a well positioned goalie
They give up far fewer shots and far higher Grade A’s
xGF doesn’t capture it

Or “found a way to break the system”, in your words lol

That’s it. Pretty simple

Exactly what I have been saying is happening happened again.

The model uses all the shots to give out the xGF?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Lol

TLDR; the xGF model does not reflect the work a goalie has to do

The Flames stuff a lot of pucks in to a well positioned goalie
They give up far fewer shots and far higher Grade A’s
xGF doesn’t capture it

Or “found a way to break the system”, in your words lol

That’s it. Pretty simple

Exactly what I have been saying is happening happened again.

Not sure why you're laughing out loud.

Your opinion is that the Flames give up higher danger chances than other teams. It's not a fact no matter how many times you try to make it be.

The models do capture those events. They have an outside the home plate goal rate that applies to the Flames low danger high shot volume, they have a goal rate that applies to their within the home plate area without moving a goalie (scoring chance, not a high danger).

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Wouldn't it be a nice change if they got a jump on things?

Pick the two they don't want to sign or don't think they will sign and quietly get them into the chatter for Friday?

Hanifin
Zadorov
Tanev
Lindholm
Backlund
Toffoli

I'd offer up Tanev (valuable as hell but on borrowed time) and Toffoli (career year).

You have to keep Backlund and I'd prefer to grow around Lindholm and Hanifin.

Solid core players with term in a rental market might bring in a landslide of assets.

I'd be surprised if Tre isn't getting calls on Toffoli. Guy is having a great season and he's the type that can put a team over the top, especially one that maybe doesn't have the best PP.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not sure why you're laughing out loud.

Your opinion is that the Flames give up higher danger chances than other teams. It's not a fact no matter how many times you try to make it be.

The models do capture those events. They have an outside the home plate goal rate that applies to the Flames low danger high shot volume, they have a goal rate that applies to their within the home plate area without moving a goalie (scoring chance, not a high danger).

And those models don’t capture the things that matter, and make a difference between the jobs that goalie A and goalie B are asked to do

Time and space of the shooter, and where they place the shot. What the goalie has to do.

Pretty key things


In terms of analysis, they mask the real problems the team has


My opinion is based in the actual events, not a quantification of a subset of measurable elements of the event

I lol because
- you even agree that the models have limitations
- I have a hypothesis about how the limitations and general observations about the Flames’ play
- I lay out in detail where the gaps are and what the model misses.
- I support it with detail on specific events


It makes me laugh because you on one hand, you talk about my gut or opinion. Then you turn around and say the goalies at the other end are getting the job done and ours aren’t . Sounds like your gut to me. Because I’m telling you how the shots are different.

They are simply not being asked to do the same job.

Although you acknowledge the models have limitations, you steadfastly refuse to accept the general notion that the deviation of the Flames W-L from the model is actually related to the model’s shortcomings.

Just gotta get a save, amirite?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

And those models don’t capture the things that matter, and make a difference between the jobs that goalie A and goalie B are asked to do

In terms of analysis, they mask the real problems the team has


My opinion is based in the actual events, not a quantification of a subset of measurable elements of the event

I lol because
- you even agree that the models have limitations
- I have a hypothesis about how the limitations and general observations about the Flames’ play
- I lay out in detail where the gaps are and what the model misses.
- I support it with detail on specific events


It makes me laugh because you on one hand, you talk about my gut or opinion. Then you turn around and say the goalies at the other end are getting the job done and ours aren’t . Sounds like your gut to me. Because I’m telling you how the shots are different.

They are simply not being asked to do the same job.

Although you acknowledge the models have limitations, you steadfastly refuse to accept the general notion that the deviation of the Flames W-L from the model is actually related to the model’s shortcomings.

Just gotta get a save, amirite?

Sigh ... we do this every damn game.

1. The models aren't perfect and they will improve.
2. The models are applied to every team and every goalie
3. The models take into account danger by region on the ice and entry point for the shot (tip, rebound, pass into home plate)
4. So a team that doesn't shoot dangerously will have less counts on the scoring chance and high danger level and with that accrue less impactful shots towards expected goals.

They're not perfect. They can certainly be wrong.

But over the course of a season it's certainly doubtful that a team or a goalie has found a way to generate for or against in these models in a consistently different way than other teams or goalies.

That's the rub.

The Flames with the same coach and system had top 5 metrics in most defensive categories last year and had the 4th best goaltending. This year same metrics and the 29th ranked goaltending.

But you want everyone to believe they've found a way to give up higher danger chances than the opposition in the same system with the same coach getting the same metrics which I'm just not willing to concede (nor should I as there isn't a lick of data to support that)

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Sigh ... we do this every damn game.

1. The models aren't perfect and they will improve.
2. The models are applied to every team and every goalie
3. The models take into account danger by region on the ice and entry point for the shot (tip, rebound, pass into home plate)
4. So a team that doesn't shoot dangerously will have less counts on the scoring chance and high danger level and with that accrue less impactful shots towards expected goals.

They're not perfect. They can certainly be wrong.

But over the course of a season it's certainly doubtful that a team or a goalie has found a way to generate for or against in these models in a consistently different way than other teams or goalies.

That's the rub.

The Flames with the same coach and system had top 5 metrics in most defensive categories last year and had the 4th best goaltending. This year same metrics and the 29th ranked goaltending.

But you want everyone to believe they've found a way to give up higher danger chances than the opposition in the same system with the same coach getting the same metrics which I'm just not willing to concede (nor should I as there isn't a lick of data to support that)

The previous 2 games I pointed out selected outlying events

Last game I described every single shot the opposing goalie had to face, and contrasted the goals Marky allowed. That’s the ‘lick of data’.

They are different, man.

Sutter even stated last night the D lose a lot of one on one battles

I just don’t get how you can watch the games and not see exactly what is happening. Because it happens a lot

Good shot suppression, but too many 10 bellers on our side
Shots from good locations in to the pads or a set goalie on their goalie’s side

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The previous 2 games I pointed out selected outlying events

Last game I described every single shot the opposing goalie had to face, and contrasted the goals Marky allowed. That’s the ‘lick of data’.

They are different, man.

Sutter even stated last night the D lose a lot of one on one battles

I just don’t get how you can watch the games and not see exactly what is happening. Because it happens a lot

Good shot suppression, but too many 10 bellers on our side
Shots from good locations in to the pads or a set goalie on their goalie’s side

I guess I would ask if you think the Flames have the worst (or among the worst) team defense in the NHL. Because that is where our goaltending numbers are.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

I guess I would ask if you think the Flames have the worst (or among the worst) team defense in the NHL. Because that is where our goaltending numbers are.

Those numbers are save percentages

In terms of xGA, they are a bit below average but middle of the pack

They wouldn’t be among the worst if they allowed more shots

And yes, they have too many egregious breakdowns giving shooters time and space to place their shots, in my opinion. They are among the ‘worst’ there

I have been noticing it for a while, decided to document it this game, to help the dismissive people like Bingo

[Burning Beard]

Defending the goaltending this year is an interesting choice...

[Finger Cookin]

A consistent theme does seem to be that our defense does leave our goalies out to dry a lot with extremely dangerous chances surrendered, even if total shots are largely stifled. I like the makeup of the defense group, but it's hard to argue that when it comes down to results, it's among the worst groups in the league. Which is just depressing to type, but here we are.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I think overall our breakdowns seem to be big ones and we aren't getting the save to bail us out so the rest of the game feels like everything is a high danger chance against when it really isn't.

This is a talented league and most teams have some game breakers that will create chances but good teams get.900 plus goaltending.

Our goalies have numbers that led to players never getting a look again.

Markstrom is being paid to make big saves and he isn't making any saves this season.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The previous 2 games I pointed out selected outlying events

Last game I described every single shot the opposing goalie had to face, and contrasted the goals Marky allowed. That’s the ‘lick of data’.

They are different, man.

Sutter even stated last night the D lose a lot of one on one battles

I just don’t get how you can watch the games and not see exactly what is happening. Because it happens a lot

Good shot suppression, but too many 10 bellers on our side
Shots from good locations in to the pads or a set goalie on their goalie’s side

Your lick of data isn't any more valuable than someone watching Markstrom and saying he should have stopped that puck on say Mackinnon last night.

Means nothing.

60 games of data collected independently from sources that have objective events and areas of the ice is data.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Those numbers are save percentages

In terms of xGA, they are a bit below average but middle of the pack

They wouldn’t be among the worst if they allowed more shots

And yes, they have too many egregious breakdowns giving shooters time and space to place their shots, in my opinion. They are among the ‘worst’ there

I have been noticing it for a while, decided to document it this game, to help the dismissive people like Bingo

Thanks for the help!

the only thing I've dismissive of is people that seem to be seeing what they want to see.

Flames are 4th in xGA in all situations.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Those numbers are save percentages

In terms of xGA, they are a bit below average but middle of the pack

They wouldn’t be among the worst if they allowed more shots

And yes, they have too many egregious breakdowns giving shooters time and space to place their shots, in my opinion. They are among the ‘worst’ there

I have been noticing it for a while, decided to document it this game, to help the dismissive people like Bingo

I'm slightly confused as you say these models are useless to rate our goalies, and then use them to defend our goalies being mid pack, which they are not by those stats.

Of the 45 goalies who have played 20 or more games Markstrom's XGA/60 is 11th and Vladar's is 8th. That's not mid pack.That's better than top third.

Goaltending has been the Flames single biggest problem this year, but I agree it's not the only problem.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Thanks for the help!

the only thing I've dismissive of is people that seem to be seeing what they want to see.

Flames are 4th in xGA in all situations.

Moneypuck shows them as 10th. They are only 6 goals against off from the model too

Doesn’t fit the narrative that the goalies are league worst, does it?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Defending the goaltending this year is an interesting choice...

It’s his thing. We have been there and done that with Rittich and any other mediocre goaltenders he hitches his wagon to. Rinse and repeat.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

I'm slightly confused as you say these models are useless to rate our goalies, and then use them to defend our goalies being mid pack, which they are not by those stats.

Of the 45 goalies who have played 20 or more games Markstrom's XGA/60 is 11th and Vladar's is 8th. That's not mid pack.That's better than top third.

Goaltending has been the Flames single biggest problem this year, but I agree it's not the only problem.

Well, my view is more this

Flames lose 4-1.
People say the goalie sucked, the guy at the other end was better (yet again)
I say that in my view they deserved to lose around 4-1 based on what the goalies actually had to stop (I’d say ~5-2, given Mang’s issue and some of Marky’s big saves)

I actually don’t view the goaltending as the single biggest problem

A lot of people do, basically because of sv% and timing of goals. Some guy stuff and the pitchforks are out after enough of it

I really view the costly breakdowns, and time and space allowed, as the problems on the defensive side


That’s all. Basically I think that they are skewing to the wrong side of what the model would expect, based on non-goalie related things we repeatedly see

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It’s his thing. We have been there and done that with Rittich and any other mediocre goaltenders he hitches his wagon to. Rinse and repeat.

Useful stuff . Typical

Nah, both goalies just forgot how to play, equally

Lol

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Those numbers are save percentages

In terms of xGA, they are a bit below average but middle of the pack

They wouldn’t be among the worst if they allowed more shots

And yes, they have too many egregious breakdowns giving shooters time and space to place their shots, in my opinion. They are among the ‘worst’ there

I have been noticing it for a while, decided to document it this game, to help the dismissive people like Bingo

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Well, my view is more this

Flames lose 4-1.
People say the goalie sucked, the guy at the other end was better (yet again)
I say that in my view they deserved to lose around 4-1 based on what the goalies actually had to stop (I’d say ~5-2, given Mang’s issue and some of Marky’s big saves)

I actually don’t view the goaltending as the single biggest problem

A lot of people do, basically because of sv% and timing of goals. Some guy stuff and the pitchforks are out after enough of it

I really view the costly breakdowns, and time and space allowed, as the problems on the defensive side


That’s all. Basically I think that they are skewing to the wrong side of what the model would expect, based on non-goalie related things we repeatedly see

According to Moneypuck, among the 33 goalies who have played 25 games or more, Markstrom's goals save above expected is 30th. That makes him the 4th worst starting goalie according to Moneypuck.

I'm not saying the team is a defensive juggernaut, but Markstrom has been downright putrid.

And I don't want to accuse you of not watching any other hockey, but in the viewing I've done nothing the Flames give up in terms of scoring changes is that different than many teams which are getting way more saves. I'm not saying the Flames are Boston, but they aren't Columbus either.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

According to Moneypuck, among the 33 goalies who have played 25 games or more, Markstrom's goals save above expected is 30th. That makes him the 4th worst starting goalie according to Moneypuck.

I'm not saying the team is a defensive juggernaut, but Markstrom has been downright putrid.

And I don't want to accuse you of not watching any other hockey, but in the viewing I've done nothing the Flames give up in terms of scoring changes is that different than many teams which are getting way more saves. I'm not saying the Flames are Boston, but they aren't Columbus either.

I get it, I’ve heard that argument before. But I disagree.

I don’t disagree that Marky has let in some stinkers, either. Heck, I’m not in line with his rebound control and his post save recovery far too often.

But your point is why I went ahead and described every shot they took.

The Flames outshot the Avs, and all stats favoured them. But the goalies were asked to play two very different games.

As pointed out in great detail, Georgiev saved a lot by having his pads on the ice and/or simply being square to the shot. No equivalent to the Mackinnon or Malgin breakaways, except for when Mang missed the net.

Even Bingo’s description of the goals Marky allowed acknowledged they weren’t really on him. But there’s the fatigue because of the overall GA and first 2 shots

Like I said, the Flames first shot comparable to the Avs first 2 was their 21st shot. That is not good.

A lot of people last night said the Flames had a lot of good chances. The stats supported. Buy a close look at Georgiev’s body of work shows he had a routine night

Many nights, we have seen the same thing. 10 bellers our way, and a guy ‘just getting the job done’ down there. It’s not coincidence.

I do watch more than Flames hockey, and respectfully do see it differently.

I really think the Gs are getting a raw deal in terms of their perception