[GDT] Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins 5:00pm TV: SN1, TVAS - RADIO SN960

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Didn't Friedman change that (or try to) a few years back to the middle of November or early November? Regardless the Flames were in then, so all is good.

There is no date. You can pick any date you want. It is simple statistics. With each day the season continues, the correlation between the current standings, and the final standings, strengthens.

It is not 1.0 until the final playoff races are decided (usually in the last few games of the year), but what you will find in these situations is that, while the correlation starts at zero on day 1, it quickly moves up to about .8 or so, within about 20 games. Graphed, it forms a parabolic arc, limiting to 1.

So you pick your poison: if you want to be the first to say 'this is what it might look like' (as Friedman is doing), then you choose an early date, around the 20 game mark. The earlier you choose, the more likely you are to be wrong (to some extent)

[Flames1217]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

There is no date. You can pick any date you want. It is simple statistics. With each day the season continues, the correlation between the current standings, and the final standings, strengthens.

It is not 1.0 until the final playoff races are decided (usually in the last few games of the year), but what you will find in these situations is that, while the correlation starts at zero on day 1, it quickly moves up to about .8 or so, within about 20 games. Graphed, it forms a parabolic arc, limiting to 1.

So you pick your poison: if you want to be the first to say 'this is what it might look like' (as Friedman is doing), then you choose an early date, around the 20 game mark. The earlier you choose, the more likely you are to be wrong (to some extent)

Although it was anomaly but wasn't St Louis in last place on Christmas the year they won the cup?

[FlamesAddiction]

Of course there is nothing magical about a date. It's implied that by a particular date in most seasons, that enough teams have played enough games, that reasonable predictions can be made. You kind of have to pick a date because not all teams have the same number of games played.

Past seasons have shown that by American Thanksgiving (or roughly the 20 game mark), 75 to 100% of the teams currently in a playoff spot will be the same ones in a playoff spot when the season ends.

[Erick Estrada]

Yeah based on recent history teams in the playoffs by US Thanksgiving are in a good spot (75% of teams in at this time make it) and teams out have the odds stacked against them. No certainty either way but ideally you don't want to have to be bucking historical trends to get to the playoffs. This probably applies more to teams like Vancouver, Chicago, and San Jose than Calgary, Edmonton, or even Minnesota who are within a few points of moving up into the playoffs.

https://www.tsn.ca/a-look-at-the-nhl...mark-1.1729458

[midniteowl]

I don't care how, just win, please.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flames1217

Although it was anomaly but wasn't St Louis in last place on Christmas the year they won the cup?

Yes

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Of course there is nothing magical about a date. It's implied that by a particular date in most seasons, that enough teams have played enough games, that reasonable predictions can be made. You kind of have to pick a date because not all teams have the same number of games played.

Past seasons have shown that by American Thanksgiving (or roughly the 20 game mark), 75 to 100% of the teams currently in a playoff spot will be the same ones in a playoff spot when the season ends.

Again, there is no predictability here, simply correlation.

And again, it doesn't matter what date you pick. Humans are hardwired to see patterns, whether they exist or not. So picking a holiday, because it is a date that we can relate to, makes sense.

And because the correlation, between the current standings and the final standings, climbs to .75 or .8 fairly quickly, you will find a pretty strong correlation, as early as mid-November.

But there is zero predictive power in the numbers. And there WILL BE change. It is a complete non-event.

[Paulie Walnuts]

St. Louis also punted the coach and brought up Jordan Binnington who went on a Kipper like heater for them.

[Infinit47]

Get the W.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

St. Louis also punted the coach and brought up Jordan Binnington who went on a Kipper like heater for them.

So?

Teams that aren't doing well make changes, that's part of the equation.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So?



Teams that aren't doing well make changes, that's part of the equation.

I think his point is that the Flames are doomed because they will be changing neither the coach nor the starting goalie this season.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think his point is that the Flames are doomed because they will be changing neither the coach nor the starting goalie this season.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

No, my point was that they made two significant changes, the coaching didn't do much for a while anyways.

I don't think changing the coach is the answer anyways.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Again, there is no predictability here, simply correlation.

And again, it doesn't matter what date you pick. Humans are hardwired to see patterns, whether they exist or not. So picking a holiday, because it is a date that we can relate to, makes sense.

And because the correlation, between the current standings and the final standings, climbs to .75 or .8 fairly quickly, you will find a pretty strong correlation, as early as mid-November.

But there is zero predictive power in the numbers. And there WILL BE change. It is a complete non-event.

Correlation is used to make predictions all the time (predictive analytics). It's used in scientific research and in many industries including medicine, insurance, business, etc... Pretty much any industry where predicting an outcome benefits the business.

No one is saying that for sure there won't be any movement with teams, just that historical data indicates the odds are against it. Predictions can still be wrong, but they will likely be correct more often.

[dino7c]

Flames go from the hardest strength of schedule in the NHL before Thanksgiving to the easiest after.

That has more to do with the likelihood of them making the playoffs than anything else. All the odds sites have them easily.

People worry too much

[GranteedEV]

nvm