[Game Takes] Does Dillon Dube have another level?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You post a single word "no" and are honestly surprised that someone called you on it in a similar fashion?

Show me the spreadsheet Bingo. Pull up Excel and show me where Dube shows ANY indication of being anything more than a third/forth liner. PLEASE! Who me the data that he's got anything in the tank because it is so obvious from his play that there is nothing that would lead you to believe he's got more in the tank. What metric are you using that indicates Dube is a 2nd line player or better. I like Dube, but he is what he is.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

After the Johnny Hockey debacle you're the last person who should be posting "LOL" in regards to anything. Hot-take after hot-take proved to be absolute bull####, just like your take on Tyler Parsons. So maybe time to take a break and STFU? Maybe???

Jesus Christ, that escalated quickly

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Show me the spreadsheet Bingo. Pull up Excel and show me where Dube shows ANY indication of being anything more than a third/forth liner. PLEASE! Who me the data that he's got anything in the tank because it is so obvious from his play that there is nothing that would lead you to believe he's got more in the tank. What metric are you using that indicates Dube is a 2nd line player or better. I like Dube, but he is what he is.

Dude what's the point in being so angry on here all the time?

[bdubbs]

I wish people would stop quoting people that deserve to be on ignore... But to stay on topic--yes, I do believe Dube has more to offer if given the right amounts of push and with a little bit of his own determination.

[442scotty]

If he can stay away from concussions he will blossom

[Erick Estrada]

I thought Dube played very well in the 2nd half of the season. Wasn't as good in the playoffs but so were a lot of players. I hope his play later in the regular season is a sign of a player hitting his stride in the NHL.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I thought Dube played very well in the 2nd half of the season. Wasn't as good in the playoffs but so were a lot of players. I hope his play later in the regular season is a sign of a player hitting his stride in the NHL.

Agreed. He was noticeably good down the stretch and seemed to be utilizing his speed better than earlier in the season.

[Mathgod]

Yes, but I'm not sure how far higher that level is compared to what he gave the Flames last season. Time will tell.

[flambers]

I would think he is likely a 3rd liner, consistency has to improve.

I hope he can generate more offense

[Leeman4Gilmour]

I like Dillon Dube, but I think there's enough evidence to suggest he's a middle six player. He's 23 and entering year 5 of the NHL. Most age graphs suggest players plateau from 23 to 26. I think that plateau is lengthening as players are training harder to do just that - increase their career longevity. Dube, according to fitness results, certainly seems to fall into that category.

I think he's like Backlund. Key player, smart player, just not a massive points producer.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Show me the spreadsheet Bingo. Pull up Excel and show me where Dube shows ANY indication of being anything more than a third/forth liner. PLEASE! Who me the data that he's got anything in the tank because it is so obvious from his play that there is nothing that would lead you to believe he's got more in the tank. What metric are you using that indicates Dube is a 2nd line player or better. I like Dube, but he is what he is.

Yeah. That….

Or you could just listen to the podcast as one of the top minds in hockey breaks down why he has a higher ceiling.

Will he put it together? Maybe/maybe not. Growth in anything is complex & punctuated.

But I’m sure NHL players are lining up outside your door so you can break down video with them for another astute assessment to them they are what they are.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Who do you bump to give Dillon Dube an opportunity to shine? Simple as that. Do you trust in Dillion Dube, or do you go outside the organization to fill the missing gap? Answer is pretty obvious. You look elsewhere. Dube is cast as a third or fourth liner, it is who he is. Relying on him means you are targeting being a fringe playoff team. Dube has been given opportunity and failed. It is why the team will look elsewhere or accept being a bubble team.

[Flamesfan05]

There is no outside or inside help. Dube needs to step up or we go to tank mode

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Show me the spreadsheet Bingo. Pull up Excel and show me where Dube shows ANY indication of being anything more than a third/forth liner. PLEASE! Who me the data that he's got anything in the tank because it is so obvious from his play that there is nothing that would lead you to believe he's got more in the tank. What metric are you using that indicates Dube is a 2nd line player or better. I like Dube, but he is what he is.

I'm not arguing with you.

I'm just pointing out that if you deliver bombastic curt responses be ready for the fact that people may to reply to you in a similar way.

Dube has wheels ... that gives him a chance.
Last year he had chances ... that gives him a chance.

No guarantee he puts it together though.

He had the team's 5th greatest disparity between expected and actual goals. That can be bad luck. That can also be a lack of finish/skill.

Interesting that Gaudreau was the other way ... team's highest goals over expected. That can be skill too ... or it can be a big worry about his next contract.

[Erick Estrada]

I hate to be that guy but with the hockey canada investigation rebooting there is a possibility that Dube may have been involved. I'm an innocent until proven guilty guy but hopefully they get to the bottom of that and hopefully he wasn't involved.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Let's not. There is thread for that, let's talk about Dube's outlook as a hockey player here.

The renewed hockey canada government inquiry could have a direct result in his future as a hockey player.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Show me the spreadsheet Bingo. Pull up Excel and show me where Dube shows ANY indication of being anything more than a third/forth liner. PLEASE! Who me the data that he's got anything in the tank because it is so obvious from his play that there is nothing that would lead you to believe he's got more in the tank. What metric are you using that indicates Dube is a 2nd line player or better. I like Dube, but he is what he is.

I'll take the bait - and will focus on 5v5 stats since PP time will skew a young players progression.

He showed steady progression in his development in the WHL, had a great start to his career in the AHL with 52 points in 50 games, and has now continued to progress at the NHL level.

2018/2019: 0.2 P/GP in 24 NHL games
2019/2020: 0.36 P/GP in 45 NHL games
2020/2021: 0.43 P/GP in 51 NHL games
2021/2022: 0.41 P/GP in 79 NHL games

One thing to remember is even though it looks like he's been around a while because he's been here for part of 4 seasons, last year was his first true 82 game season, and he's only played 200 career NHL games since the two prior seasons were shortened due to COVID.

Also while his offensive numbers were down slightly, it's partially because he was asked to develop his game without the puck and challenged by Sutter to be a more complete 200 ft player.

If you look at his development not looking at points

2019/2020: 46.3% xG%
2020/2021: 52.9% xG%
2021/2022: 54.2% xG%

Clearly making strides in his overall impact and play on the ice.

His individual shot, and expected goal rates were up a lot year over year.

Shots per 60:

2019/2020: 6.6
2020/2021: 6.9
2021/2022: 8.3

As well as his individual xG per 60:

2019/2020: 0.68
2020/2021: 0.68
2021/2022: 0.81

And he was much better at taking care of the puck - Giveaways per 60:

2019/2020: 1.61
2020/2021: 2.65
2021/2022: 1.32

His points were likely down as a whole because he was snake bit for most of the season and his on-ice shooting percentage cratered.

2019/2020: 8.2%
2020/2021: 9.1%
2021/2022: 7.0%

In terms of if this means he's a 2nd liner, 3rd liner or, 4th liner.

His 13 goals at 5v5 last season and 23 points last season at 5v5 rank him T-122 amongst forward in 5v5 goals, and T-205 among forwards in 5v5 points.

So that already places him as a 2nd / 3rd line tweener based on goal and point production alone. (96 top line forwards in the NHL, 192 second line forwards in the NHL)

And then if you consider the ultra low on ice shooting percentage - 7.0% ranked 302 out of the 387 forwards who played 500 or more minutes last year - then you could see some more room for upside in his production for sure.

So I see a guy who is gradually getting better every single season of his career going back to junior, and who took some big strides as player last year with his 200 ft game as whole, and in protecting the puck.

But who just didn't see his point production increase a whole lot because his linemates and himself were snakebit a lot of the time.

[Sandman]

After he was scratched for a few games this year, he had a real good second half. I think he had a particularly good run of 15 (?) games, and at one point had 8 goals in 7 games. In the 2019-20 playoffs, he was one of our best players on a line with Lucic, with 4 goals and an assist in 10 games. I have no doubt that he's a top-6 player, he just needs some consistency and opportunity.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I'll take the bait - and will focus on 5v5 stats since PP time will skew a young players progression.

He showed steady progression in his development in the WHL, had a great start to his career in the AHL with 52 points in 50 games, and has now continued to progress at the NHL level.

2018/2019: 0.2 P/GP in 24 NHL games
2019/2020: 0.36 P/GP in 45 NHL games
2020/2021: 0.43 P/GP in 51 NHL games
2021/2022: 0.41 P/GP in 79 NHL games

One thing to remember is even though it looks like he's been around a while because he's been here for part of 4 seasons, last year was his first true 82 game season, and he's only played 200 career NHL games since the two prior seasons were shortened due to COVID.

Also while his offensive numbers were down slightly, it's partially because he was asked to develop his game without the puck and challenged by Sutter to be a more complete 200 ft player.

If you look at his development not looking at points

2019/2020: 46.3% xG%
2020/2021: 52.9% xG%
2021/2022: 54.2% xG%

Clearly making strides in his overall impact and play on the ice.

His individual shot, and expected goal rates were up a lot year over year.

Shots per 60:

2019/2020: 6.6
2020/2021: 6.9
2021/2022: 8.3

As well as his individual xG per 60:

2019/2020: 0.68
2020/2021: 0.68
2021/2022: 0.81

And he was much better at taking care of the puck - Giveaways per 60:

2019/2020: 1.61
2020/2021: 2.65
2021/2022: 1.32

His points were likely down as a whole because he was snake bit for most of the season and his on-ice shooting percentage cratered.

2019/2020: 8.2%
2020/2021: 9.1%
2021/2022: 7.0%

In terms of if this means he's a 2nd liner, 3rd liner or, 4th liner.

His 13 goals at 5v5 last season and 23 points last season at 5v5 rank him T-122 amongst forward in 5v5 goals, and T-205 among forwards in 5v5 points.

So that already places him as a 2nd / 3rd line tweener based on goal and point production alone. (96 top line forwards in the NHL, 192 second line forwards in the NHL)

And then if you consider the ultra low on ice shooting percentage - 7.0% ranked 302 out of the 387 forwards who played 500 or more minutes last year - then you could see some more room for upside in his production for sure.

So I see a guy who is gradually getting better every single season of his career going back to junior, and who took some big strides as player last year with his 200 ft game as whole, and in protecting the puck.

But who just didn't see his point production increase a whole lot because his linemates and himself were snakebit a lot of the time.

Yeah but unless it is in a spreadsheet, it really isn't a guarantee.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Yeah but unless it is in a spreadsheet, it really isn't a guarantee.

Yeah, sorry SuperMatt, but he clearly asked for Excel