Playoff Countdown

[Enoch Root]

As of March 25th...

This thread will track the Flames' chase for a playoff spot, as well as a division title. The number represents the combination of Flame wins plus the other teams' losses where they are each worth 1, and an OTL is worth a half. For example, any combination of Flame wins and Oiler losses totaling 15.5 would eliminate the Oilers. For the playoff spot, all teams below the line need to get to zero for the Flames to clinch (teams can change in and out). For the division title, all teams need to get to zero.


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 13.5
DAL: 14
LAK: 13
EDM: 13
------------
WPG: 9.5
VGS: 9.5
VAN: 9
SJS: 7.5
ANA: 6
CHI: 3


DIVISION TITLE
LAK: 13
EDM: 13
VGS: 9.5
VAN: 9
SJS: 7.5
ANA: 6
SEA: 0

[Tsawwassen]

Following the March 25 games, the magic number is 14 for the Flames being unable to catch the Avs for 1st place in the conference.

[Strange Brew]

A B of A first round match up is not totally out of the question.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Those are pretty much out of reach. There is a greater chance of LA winning the Division than for the Flames to finish first in the West.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

That regulation loss to Colorado was the nail in the coffin for the Flames winning the west. The Flames getting messed up by covid and having an awful schedule makes their record worse than they deserve. The bookies all know this too, hence their increased Stanley cup odds.

[gvitaly]

Updated likely first round opponents:
Central Opponent ~ 94.7%
--------------------------
NSH - 38.3% (was 34.4%)
DAL - 24.9% (19.5%)
STL - 20.7% (15.3%)
MIN - 8.9% (22.8%)
WPG - 2.5% (2.7%)

Pacific Opponent ~ 5.3%
--------------------------
VGK - 2.1% (2.3%)
EDM - 1.3% (1.1%)
VAN - 1.1% (0.5%)
LAK - 0.8% (1.5%)

Summary of the weighted chances:
After the 5 game winning streak by the Wild they created some separation from STL, NSH, and DAL. Calgary has all but secured the top spot in the Pacific(99.5%), and still has an outside chance(8%) at getting the top spot in the West. That leads to an 84% chance we will be playing one of NSH, STL, or DAL in the first round. A pacific opponent remains highly unlikely, with VGK having the best odds of 2.1%. The chances of playing another Canadian team in the first round also remain low with just under a 5% chance.

[Enoch Root]

As of March 26th, the day of the beatdown...

This thread will track the Flames' chase for a playoff spot, as well as a division title. The number represents the combination of Flame wins plus the other teams' losses where they are each worth 1, and an OTL is worth a half. For example, any combination of Flame wins and Oiler losses totaling 15.5 would eliminate the Oilers. For the playoff spot, all teams below the line need to get to zero for the Flames to clinch (teams can change in and out). For the division title, all teams need to get to zero.


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 12.5
DAL: 12
LAK: 12
EDM: 11
------------
WPG: 8.5
VGS: 8.5
VAN: 8
SJS: 6.5
ANA: 4
CHI: 1.5


DIVISION TITLE
LAK: 12
EDM: 11
VGS: 8.5
VAN: 8
SJS: 6.5
ANA: 4
SEA: 0

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1507960115454005250

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

A B of A first round match up is not totally out of the question.

Yep and so is a Canucks-Flames battle.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by blankall

That regulation loss to Colorado was the nail in the coffin for the Flames winning the west. The Flames getting messed up by covid and having an awful schedule makes their record worse than they deserve. The bookies all know this too, hence their increased Stanley cup odds.

Nope. Tonight's game will sort of be the decider to winning the western conf. title.

[Enoch Root]

As of March 31st...

This thread will track the Flames' chase for a playoff spot, as well as a division title. The number represents the combination of Flame wins plus the other teams' losses where they are each worth 1, and an OTL is worth a half. For example, any combination of Flame wins and Oiler losses totaling 15.5 would eliminate the Oilers. For the playoff spot, all teams below the line need to get to zero for the Flames to clinch (teams can change in and out). For the division title, all teams need to get to zero.


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 12.5
DAL: 11.5
EDM: 10.5
LAK: 10
------------
VGS: 8
WPG: 7
VAN: 5.5
SJS: 4
ANA: 2
CHI: 0


DIVISION TITLE
EDM: 10.5
LAK: 10
VGS: 8
VAN: 5.5
SJS: 4
ANA: 2
SEA: 0


If Calgary goes 7-7-1 the rest of the way:
LAK need to go 10-2-0
EDM need to go 11-2-1
VGS need to go 13-0-0
to catch them

[EVERLAST]

God that would be so Calgary to finish 7 7 1 the rest of the way....hate saying it too.

Games are gonna be tight like the last few but we need to start doing things a little smarter.

Traffic to the nets ....we're making all opposing goalies look like world beaters with our laid back not crashing the net , perimeter shooting garbage we've all seen before .

The TRAP and why its being employed successfully against the Flames .

Pete L pointed this out early last night and practically condemned the Flames for not having an answer for this. I mean they played a little better after the 1st but slipped back into not really wanting to skate, work or anything.

I hope this gets addressed ASAP because if our scoring dries up before the playoffs we'll be out in the 1st round again.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I didn't know where to put this, but here's a discussion of which team in Canada has the best chance to win the cup, and which team is the best. I found it pretty funny with Button absolutely schooling Johnson.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1506008267902054401

Toronto is no good!

That was actually quite bad. His theory was based on Campbell being as good as Markstrom because Campbell was an all star. Campbell has never played the #1 goalie role over a full season before. So, his "best" hockey is really unknown. Or you can simply say that any goalie's best will result in a shut out.

And Matthews is "currently" the best player in the world? I can't imagine what this could be based on? That 50th goal into the empty net must have really been clutch?

[Tsawwassen]

Following the April 2 games, the magic number is now 7 for the Flames being unable to catch the Avs for 1st place in the conference.

[Enoch Root]

As of April 4th...


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 10
DAL: 9.5
EDM: 9.5
LAK: 8
------------
VGS: 7
WPG: 5
VAN: 4
SJS: 2
ANA: 0



DIVISION TITLE
EDM: 9.5
LAK: 8
VGS: 7
VAN: 4
SJS: 2
ANA: 0
SEA: 0


If Calgary goes 6-6-1 the rest of the way:
LAK need to go 9-1-0
EDM need to go 9-2-1
VGS need to go 11-0-0
to catch them[/QUOTE]

[Roof-Daddy]

Flames have 13 games left, 8 of those are against teams out of the playoff race.

ARI - 1
SEA - 2
CHI - 1
ANA - 1
SJS - 1
VAN - 1
WPG - 1

If the Flames win just 4 of those and only 1 of the other 5 games it would give them 101 points. Records needed for the Flames to be passed:

LAK - 8-2-0
EDM - 7-2-2
VGK - 10-1-0

The Flames winning only 5 of their last 13 games is a pretty low bar too.

[Robbob]

I am picking April 14th as the night the Flames clinch a playoff spot. 23rd for the Division.

[Enoch Root]

As of April 8th - sweeping California helps things along quite a bit...


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 8
EDM: 7.5
DAL: 7
LAK: 5
------------
VGS: 4
WPG: 2
VAN: 2
SJS: 0


Magic number for clinching the playoffs is now 4


DIVISION TITLE
EDM: 7.5
LAK: 5
VGS: 4
VAN: 2
SJS: 0
ANA: 0
SEA: 0


If Calgary goes 5-5-1 the rest of the way:
EDM need to go 8-1-1
LAK and VGS would not be able to catch them

[bubbsy]

Kind of sucks that in a weak Pacific, it's more enviable to be 2nd in the div rather than 1st.

[agulati]

Let’s sweep this road trip to get further closer to clinching. Good wins in California.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Kind of sucks that in a weak Pacific, it's more enviable to be 2nd in the div rather than 1st.

I kind of want Vegas to make it now over LA and then destroy the Oilers in the first round.