[Game Takes] Sharks 5 Flames 3

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Knut

I do think they need to switch up something in the Middle 6. Pitlick, Richardson and LEwis are offensive Blackholes basically. Would be nice to add a play driving winger the pushes Pitlick down to line 4.

With the roster they have I think he got it as close to perfect as I've seen last night.

2nd line had an off night, but they have the horses ... and Monahan seemed to work well with Dube and Lucic.

Not against getting a better 6-8th forward and trickling another off the third line though.

[Macho0978]

Lucic, Richardson and Lewis have been the most commonly used 4th line. All four are on 20 point pace or better. That should be considered very good production from a 4th line. Lucic does get PP time though.

The issue has been the 3rd line or the Monahan line. Sutter keeps messing with the lines to get players going but Monahan, Backlund, Dube and Coleman are overall are not contributing enough offensively. IMO Backlund and Coleman are playing high end hockey and creating chances so I'm sure they will chip in soon.

Dube and Monahan probably are the biggest anchors on this team right now when you factor in expectations and contracts. Hopefully they get going.

Right now whatever line Lucic is on seems to get a boost. I think in time Monahan and Dube will find their games as well but it's nice to see Lucic playing so well.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

With the roster they have I think he got it as close to perfect as I've seen last night.

2nd line had an off night, but they have the horses ... and Monahan seemed to work well with Dube and Lucic.

Not against getting a better 6-8th forward and trickling another off the third line though.

IMO they have the perfect 6-8th forward in Coleman. Maybe one of the best in the league.

Get me another guy than score and slide Coleman down. Then we're talking.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's an NHL issue not a Flames issue though.

Did the five on five points for each team, ranking them in forwards in production to give an easy top three, six, nine etc.

Then I compared the Flames five on five production to the rest of the league's top three, next three etc in two ways.

Contenders - I picked the top five coming into the season, and then removed the Islanders as they've been junk with covid

The rest - the other 28 teams

Top 3
Calgary 43 points
Contenders 39.8 points
The Rest 37.4 points

Calgary in good shape with the top line (in this case its Gaudreau, Lindholm and Mangiapane)

Second Line (next 3)
Calgary 28 points
Contenders 27 points
The Rest 24.5 points

Calgary has a second three (2nd line) that's better than both contenders and the rest of the league (Tkachuk, Lucic, Dube)

Third Line (next 3)
Calgary 17 points
Contenders 18.0 points
The Rest 16.5 points

Third line ... still no problem, Calgary is only one point back of the contenders, and a half point up on the rest of the league (Coleman, Backlund, Monahan)

Fourth Line (next 3)
Calgary 9 points
Contenders 13.3 points
The Rest 10.5 points

Here's the issue ... forwards 10-12 are back of the rest of the league and the contenders. (Richardson, Lewis, Pitlick/Ruzicka)

So you're theory isn't all that sound to be honest, the Flames are a three line team with a hole at the end of the lineup, but they're no more a one line team than any of the contenders and actually look to have better top nine depth than most of the league when it comes to contributing.

Now clearly things will change. Mangiapane and Lucic on heaters, Monahan coming around, Coleman gets going.

But as it stands that's another whiff amigo.

1) Points are not goals.
2) Lines are not made of by sorting and parsing the scoring rate.


It would be far more valid that you would make up lines by ES TOI

Or even better the time that the line actual plays together. link

Try and find another team that is so dependent on one line. There is no other team that is even close in the 25% of ice time allocated to 3 players as a unit.

The Flames have 1 line and whatever line Mangiapane is playing is the second line however limited his line-mates are.

It is not a big leap to look at the Flames from the opposition POV and figure out that if you focus on stopping line # 1 that you have greatly improved your chances of winning.

11 games in the west and 2 wins in regulation.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

1) Points are not goals.
2) Lines are not made of by sorting and parsing the scoring rate.


It would be far more valid that you would make up lines by ES TOI

Or even better the time that the line actual plays together. link

Try and find another team that is so dependent on one line. There is no other team that is even close in the 25% of ice time allocated to 3 players as a unit.

The Flames have 1 line and whatever line Mangiapane is playing is the second line however limited his line-mates are.

It is not a big leap to look at the Flames from the opposition POV and figure out that if you focus on stopping line # 1 that you have greatly improved your chances of winning.

11 games in the west and 2 wins in regulation.

Capitals. Took me 5 minutes.

ETA: also Avs - even without Mackinnon the op line is 32% or so (and it would be more but for the high amount of Makar goals)

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

1) Points are not goals.
2) Lines are not made of by sorting and parsing the scoring rate.


It would be far more valid that you would make up lines by ES TOI

Or even better the time that the line actual plays together. link

Try and find another team that is so dependent on one line. There is no other team that is even close in the 25% of ice time allocated to 3 players as a unit.

The Flames have 1 line and whatever line Mangiapane is playing is the second line however limited his line-mates are.

It is not a big leap to look at the Flames from the opposition POV and figure out that if you focus on stopping line # 1 that you have greatly improved your chances of winning.

11 games in the west and 2 wins in regulation.

It is a bit concerning the wins vs the west as I'm sure the Flames have a history of playing very well against the East and struggling against the west and their own division.

I have a tough time agreeing this team relies on 1 line. Is the 25% ice for 1 line a result of playing them too many minutes or just that Sutter has rarely split up that line?

Lindholm, Gaudreau and Tkachuk have 32 goals including PP and SH goals. Mangiapane has 17 and rarely plays with any of those players. Add Lucic and Backlund to Mangiapane's total and they have a combined 28 goals. These are 3 players that never play first line or first PP and they are only trailing the big 3 by 4 goals?

Washington top 3 of AO, Kuznetsov and Wilson have 37 goals. Next leading goal scorers at forwards are Hathaway 7, Sheary 5, Oshie 4. Oshie plays on the PP with the big guys and 3 of his 4 goals are on the PP.

That's 1 example of a team that relies much more heavily on their first line than the Flames do. Oilers are in the same boat considering Draisaitl still plays big minutes 5 on 5 with McDavid and a ton of minutes on the PP together.

The Flames have been pretty balanced so far. Lack of goals for defense this year is more a concern than depth scoring. That and the Monahan line not contributing

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

1) Points are not goals.
2) Lines are not made of by sorting and parsing the scoring rate.


It would be far more valid that you would make up lines by ES TOI

Or even better the time that the line actual plays together. link

Try and find another team that is so dependent on one line. There is no other team that is even close in the 25% of ice time allocated to 3 players as a unit.

The Flames have 1 line and whatever line Mangiapane is playing is the second line however limited his line-mates are.

It is not a big leap to look at the Flames from the opposition POV and figure out that if you focus on stopping line # 1 that you have greatly improved your chances of winning.

11 games in the west and 2 wins in regulation.

What a lame attempt. Why don't you do the work instead of just suggesting something is true without even looking it up.

The bolded is categorically wrong. There are 15 teams north of 30%, and the Oilers at 40%.

And if I use goals (trying to suggest points don't matter was equally lame) the Flames have the 17th highest goal concentration on their top three players in the league. 17th.

And if I move Mangiapane to the second line, which you wanted, that drops to 30th ... talk about barking up the wrong tree.

If I do it by total ice time, the Flames are 18th in concentration for time on the ice for the top three goal scorers and 30th if I flip Tkachuk for Mangiapane as you suggested.

You honestly couldn't be more wrong, which is fine, we all make mistakes, but you're suggesting things are facts without even looking into it is getting really tiresome.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Capitals. Took me 5 minutes.

flames Gaudreau Lindholm Tkachuk 313 minutes 23.5 % of ES ice time 22 GF 3 GA

Caps EVGENY KUZNETSOV - TOM WILSON - ALEX OVECHKIN 256 minutes 18.9% of ES ice time 22 GF 9 GA

next line on Flames - 96 minutes 7.2 % ES ice time

next line on caps 156 minutes 11.1 % of ES ice time

Take a bit longer. Strive for accuracy

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

flames Gaudreau Lindholm Tkachuk 313 minutes 23.5 % of ES ice time 22 GF 3 GA

Caps EVGENY KUZNETSOV - TOM WILSON - ALEX OVECHKIN 256 minutes 18.9% of ES ice time 22 GF 9 GA

next line on Flames - 96 minutes 7.2 % ES ice time

next line on caps 156 minutes 11.1 % of ES ice time

Take a bit longer. Strive for accuracy

I was talking production, which was your original point. Caps' top line accounts for something like 40% of their goals. Who cares how much ice time they get?

And speaking of accuracy, Bingo has already destroyed yours.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What a lame attempt. Why don't you do the work instead of just suggesting something is true without even looking it up.

The bolded is categorically wrong. There are 15 teams north of 30%, and the Oilers at 40%.

And if I use goals (trying to suggest points don't matter was equally lame) the Flames have the 17th highest goal concentration on their top three players in the league. 17th.

And if I move Mangiapane to the second line, which you wanted, that drops to 30th ... talk about barking up the wrong tree.

If I do it by total ice time, the Flames are 18th in concentration for time on the ice for the top three goal scorers and 30th if I flip Tkachuk for Mangiapane as you suggested.

You honestly couldn't be more wrong, which is fine, we all make mistakes, but you're suggesting things are facts without even looking into it is getting really tiresome.

I did the work. Click on the link I entered Edmonton They have 3 combination of 6 players that would be their top lines at ES

I tried to avoid snipping back but you are mining stats to get the outcome you want. very similar to your insistence that the Flames were a great team last season based on their CF%.

A line is 3 players on the ice at the same time.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

flames Gaudreau Lindholm Tkachuk 313 minutes 23.5 % of ES ice time 22 GF 3 GA

Caps EVGENY KUZNETSOV - TOM WILSON - ALEX OVECHKIN 256 minutes 18.9% of ES ice time 22 GF 9 GA

next line on Flames - 96 minutes 7.2 % ES ice time

next line on caps 156 minutes 11.1 % of ES ice time

Take a bit longer. Strive for accuracy

maybe I'm missing the point, but this is 5 on 5 correct? so shouldn't all 4 lines - even if you ran them evenly be at about 25%? all this really seems to suggest to me is that the Flames trio has been productive and healthy and has stayed together, whereas the other 3 lines have been in the blender


the fact that the Caps have various versions of Kuznetov/Ovie with other randos instead of Wilson doesn't change the main message I don't think

[looooob]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I did the work. Click on the link I entered Edmonton They have 3 combination of 6 players that would be their top lines at ES

they have the McDavid line, the Draisaitl line and the oh crap time to put McDavid and Draisaitl together line- that is somehow proof they are less top heavy?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I did the work. Click on the link I entered Edmonton They have 3 combination of 6 players that would be their top lines at ES

Weird how their top 3 combinations all have the same two players in them
either separately or together. This shows your analysis is F'd up. Same of the Caps - there are 4 combinations of Ovie and Kuznestov + a winger.

As someone else said, Calgary's top line has never been altered. Not once. Anyone could surmise that this would result in the biggest ES ice time number for that line.

But your original notion was Calgary relies too much on a top line for production, which you then moved to goals. And there are examples of teams that do that a lot more.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I did the work. Click on the link I entered Edmonton They have 3 combination of 6 players that would be their top lines at ES

Calgary's top line 1106 minutes / total ES for top 12 3645 = 30%

Only one team in the league has less than 30% for their top three in ice time and that's Carolina at 29%.

The Flames are ranked 25th in top three players / top 12 players even strength ice time as a percentage.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Weird how their top 3 combinations all have the same two players in them
either separately or together. This shows your analysis is F'd up. Same of the Caps - there are 4 combinations of Ovie and Kuznestov + a winger.

As someone else said, Calgary's top line has never been altered. Not once. Anyone could surmise that this would result in the biggest ES ice time number for that line.

But your original notion was Calgary relies too much on a top line for production, which you then moved to goals. And there are examples of teams that do that a lot more.

Yeah exactly.

The original suggestion was relying on three players too much. I'm using raw total ice time data to show that isn't true at all.

[Enoch Root]

The Game Takes are great. And the thread is one of the best, because people come here to have real discussions about the game and the underlying stats.

But then Ricardodw comes and lays a dump in it. Every. Single. Time.

[Bingo]

Actually if I took anything from looking into this it's that Sutter uses his fourth line too much, and the team should give more ice time to the top 6

The top six forwards in Calgary only get 57% of the ice time, the league average is 60%. Calgary is ranked 25th.

Edmonton ... the actual team with depth issues is using their top six forwards in 75% of their five on five minutes. Yikes!

[Enoch Root]

Yes, the Flames play the 4th line more than most teams. And there is a cost to that.

But there is also a benefit, because it is a long, grueling season.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Weird how their top 3 combinations all have the same two players in them
either separately or together. This shows your analysis is F'd up. Same of the Caps - there are 4 combinations of Ovie and Kuznestov + a winger.

As someone else said, Calgary's top line has never been altered. Not once. Anyone could surmise that this would result in the biggest ES ice time number for that line.

But your original notion was Calgary relies too much on a top line for production, which you then moved to goals. And there are examples of teams that do that a lot more.

lol no no no. A line is strictly only three plays on a single line. If Ovechkin and Kuznetsov get a new winger that is a second line. Don't you know hockey at all?