[CP Story] Deep Dive: Markstrom's Rollercoaster Season

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Psytic

Its the team. They make most goalies lose confidence over time. Then they start second guessing how far out they need to be or if the defender will have the pass across etc. Little things like that. Getting blown out every 3rd or 4th game doesn't help either. Talbot and Smith both look pretty good since leaving.

Well, let's not get carried away.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Well, let's not get carried away.

Smith’s post save recovery has improved a lot.

Belly flops per 60 way down.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I’d be interested to see Markstrom behind various D pairings

Seemed like early in the year, Nesterov and Valimaki were being exposed, and pretty much all year now, with the exception of a game here and there , 4 and 5 are really struggling

Can't get a true overlap to see it all, but as pairs these are the defensive metrics.

The Flames main defense pairs this season.

Hanifin - Tanev

CA60 46.99
SA60 24.74
xGA60 1.52
SCA60 19.63
HDCA60 6.30
Sv% .957

Giordano - Andersson

CA60 56.89
SA60 32.00
xGA60 2.45
SCA60 29.02
HDCA60 12.37
Sv% .907

Nesterov - Valimaki

CA60 51.18
SA60 31.93
xGA60 1.95
SCA60 25.15
HDCA60 8.97
Sv% .890

Kylington - Valimaki

CA60 40.78
SA60 20.94
xGA60 1.73
SCA60 19.84
HDCA60 7.72
Sv% .895

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

as I recall in Vancouver they never left Markstrom in on long runs, they always played the back up regularly, even if the team was struggling, I dont think he's a goalie that does well without regular breaks

We would ride him into the ####ing ground at every opportunity. But much like he has with the Flames, he would get hurt. He isn't Kipper. He can't start 70+ games.

Now... he never bounced back this poorly post-injury.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ Thanks, Bingo. That’s around what I expected to learn, in a couple of areas

Father time has caught Gio and Andersson has not taken the step to replace Brodie
Nesterov looked composed early on, but has settled in to what he is, another fringe D

Also very revealing about whether or not sv% is indeed a ‘team stat’ (correlated to skaters)

What I find a bit odd is the better sv% behind Gio/Ras over the 3rd pairs, as Gio/Ras seem to bleed chances

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ Thanks, Bingo. That’s around what I expected to learn, in a couple of areas

Father time has caught Gio and Andersson has not taken the step to replace Brodie
Nesterov looked composed early on, but has settled in to what he is, another fringe D

Also very revealing about whether or not sv% is indeed a ‘team stat’ (correlated to skaters)

What I find a bit odd is the better sv% behind Gio/Ras over the 3rd pairs, as Gio/Ras seem to bleed chances

Yeah on ice save percentage is just a summary, you certainly can't apply it to a skater specifically.

I think generally it and on ice shooting percentage are more a sign of good or bad luck than actual play.

But the other stats are certainly what each pairing gives up when they're on the ice.

[ricardodw]

Markstrom and Vancouver were a streaky team last season. Big winning streaks and big losing streaks.

A Vezina / team carrying goalie to is expected to be extremely hard to beat twice in a row.

It bleeds into a team thing where the team realizes that a goalie is carrying them and they are lead by his expected great play to play better defense after a loss.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah on ice save percentage is just a summary, you certainly can't apply it to a skater specifically.

I think generally it and on ice shooting percentage are more a sign of good or bad luck than actual play.

But the other stats are certainly what each pairing gives up when they're on the ice.

Well, I personally wouldn’t quite say that sv% and shooting% are luck.

I think it is a blend of correlation plus chance. There is a reason Kipper was > .925 under Sutter and <.910 under Keenan

I would say that there is a correlation between D pairing and sv%

The difference between .895 and .907 could easily be explained as comparable and skewed by chance - say ~ .900 +/- 10% whereas that .957 is significant under Tanev and Hanifin (even if it’s a function of some luck and say in a .948 +/- 10 % range)

Looking at the GWG last night, the way Gio was dumped - I don’t think that goal happens if all else is equal and Hanifin and Tanev are the D

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Well, I personally wouldn’t quite say that sv% and shooting% are luck.

I think it is a blend of correlation plus chance. There is a reason Kipper was > .925 under Sutter and <.910 under Keenan

I would say that there is a correlation between D pairing and sv%

The difference between .895 and .907 could easily be explained as comparable and skewed by chance - say ~ .900 +/- 10% whereas that .957 is significant under Tanev and Hanifin (even if it’s a function of some luck and say in a .948 +/- 10 % range)

Looking at the GWG last night, the way Gio was dumped - I don’t think that goal happens if all else is equal and Hanifin and Tanev are the D

Not debating save percentage with different coaches.

Just saying for an individual player on ice shooting percentage and on ice save percentage aren't directly correlated to one individual player.

So there is some luck in it.

A goalie lets in a weak goal would reduce the players PDO when he may have had nothing to do with the play in question.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not debating save percentage with different coaches.

Just saying for an individual player on ice shooting percentage and on ice save percentage aren't directly correlated to one individual player.

So there is some luck in it.

A goalie lets in a weak goal would reduce the players PDO when he may have had nothing to do with the play in question.

The coach thing was an example of large sample size and style of play

As for pairings, I absolutely do not think it is a coincidence by any means that the goalies’ aggregate save percentage under Tanev and Hanifin is much higher than under the other pairs.

Weak goals would be noise that fit in to the luck bucket and get less noticeable as sample sizes increase.

[Joborule]

So is this yet ANOTHER blunder by Treliving? He has looked very, very ordinary. In fact, even less so. Typically everyone NHL starting goalie will make some high quality saves here and there per game, but it seems that's a very difficult task for both Flames goaltenders to pull off.

Great goalies on bad teams do a lot to keep their bad teams in games they shouldn't be throughout the whole season. Markstrom hasn't fit that narrative although he is suppose to be a great goalie. Could it just be the injury, or is he yet another UFA misfire to add to Treliving's list?

[AustinL_NHL]

Honestly, hopefully he's still dealing with an injury, because he's been brutal in his 11 games since returning from injury.

In 11 games since coming back from injury, among 56 goalies who've played 240 mins, Markstrom ranks (at 5v5):

- 49th in SV% (.889)
- 46th in HDSV% (.754)
- 48th in GSAA/60 (-0.8-/60)

Not the only problem obviously, but he's been total crap lately.

[Since1984]

This guy needs to work on his rebound control. Absolutely terrible...

[Wolfman]

Time to send Sigalet packing

[Bonded]

Either injured or he is in his head. He looked like a legit all-star for the start of the season. Hasn't been the same since his injury

[Voodooman]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Either injured or he is in his head. He looked like a legit all-star for the start of the season. Hasn't been the same since his injury

Or he's just mentally checked out like everyone else on this team, with a few possible exceptions (Tanev, Hanifan, Dube, Mangi). No one else gives a ####, why should he?

[Monahammer]

The more time Jordan Sigalet spends within 20 feet of a goalie, the worse that goalie gets.

[madmike]

Since the first 6 games or so he's been among the worst starters in the league. Maybe it's the injury, but at this point he just looks like another lousy signing by Treliving.

I don't even think it's Sigalet. Rittich has looked fine to be honest. At the moment anyway, he's a better option than Markstrom.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The more time Jordan Sigalet spends within 20 feet of a goalie, the worse that goalie gets.

This is the way.

[Bingo]

I think it's fair game to suggest they shouldn't have spent money on a goaltender over other holes in the team.

But given the resume of Markstrom I don't think it's on Treliving that he isn't performing well.