CP Radio: First Episode in 8 years

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don't recall the Flames being unlucky in those games, from a goal scoring perspective. What I do remember is how the Ducks locked things down when the scores were close towards the end of the games when the scores were in doubt. Sometimes it's how you play when the game is on the line that means everything.

I do have a hard time taking those sets of metrics, which show a slight edge to the Flames and conclude Flames were better team by most measures. Outscored 9-2 at even strength in the series.

Doesn't matter much at this point but the inability to generate offense 5on5 is the recurring problem for this team and in particular for their best players. It hasn't changed.

We all remember things uniquely for sure.

But the underlying numbers certainly fit with how I remember it ... the goal splits fit what you remember.

Could be a case of both of us being right depending on your focus.

But that may be the best playoff series for possession metrics that the Flames have played since they starting recording this stuff.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

I was focusing in on the late picks more so than the over all as that seemed more like the context of your statement. I also would have liked the conversation to extend into the player development aspect of the draft, an area where the Flames seem to fall flat a lot. Again, the discussion could have been bigger and look at the larger aspect of our drafting and development because I don't think we've been that good.

For example, Fox would have been a great add. Very unfortunate situation, but this is one of those things that scouts should be aware of, no? Parsons doesn't look to be tracking very well IMO. Seems like another goaltender that has been off tracked by the coaching they receive in our system. That is the thing about our system, the scouts seem to do a pretty decent job, but the development factor usually doesn't continue that success progression. That kind of blends into that larger discussion of drafting aspect I was alluding too.

Well I included all picks in the last 4 drafts and the players they've found. Didn't look past any picks in that time frame.

The team has 11 players that they've drafted on the roster, and 6 from the drafts headed by Treliving (including 2014 in that one though it felt like a Burke draft).

That doesn't seem like a failed development system to me.

Fox was a great draft pick, which is the topic. His signing or not signing isn't on a scout in my mind. Given a choice in the third round between a flyer or a player that you feel strongly about but may be tough to sign, you take the player you feel strongly about every time. He's an asset to trade if he won't sign. The other guy is worthless.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Fair comments Bingo. Difference of opinion I guess. I look at things holistically and have certain expectations. Scouting is like talent recruitment. Don't bring me people that have no interest in my team or you already know I can't sign. Those people have no value to me. I only care about investing time and energy into people that I'm going to see some benefit from my investment, and I hope that is a long-term return. Once I have those people in my organization it is then my responsibility to continue their development and training so they continue to progress to be top performers and overachievers. Both play important roles in talent acquisition for the team. I think the scouts have made some mistakes in that regard, and Fox was one of them. Another being Tim Erixon in the past. Just something where they should learn from past mistakes and be more aware of such issues. Since there is such a reliance on character you would think this would be something that would come up in discussions with players. Again, different perspectives I guess.

[Jiri Hrdina]

How can Fox be considered a mistake? He was a 3rd round pick that was used to acquire front line players.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

How can Fox be considered a mistake? He was a 3rd round pick that was used to acquire front line players.

In the same fashion Tim Erixon was a mistake. Isn't the intent to find the best players that want to play for your team? What use is a player that has no interest in playing for your organization? We got lucky because he was a college player and our control window was a little more restrictive and gave the Flames more time to make a deal. We also got very lucky that he had an explosive development curve that made him of interest, but even that was a diminished return because of his desire to play for only one team. So yes, the pick from a talent perspective was good, but from a the larger goal of getting the player into our lineup, it was a bit of a failure. I really wish that had worked out for us. Can you imagine him on our back end and what that would look like for the next five to ten years? Yikes.

[VladtheImpaler]

Nice job guys. Perfect length to hear it all while walking the dog this morning. Look forward to more.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by New Era

In the same fashion Tim Erixon was a mistake. Isn't the intent to find the best players that want to play for your team? What use is a player that has no interest in playing for your organization? We got lucky because he was a college player and our control window was a little more restrictive and gave the Flames more time to make a deal. We also got very lucky that he had an explosive development curve that made him of interest, but even that was a diminished return because of his desire to play for only one team. So yes, the pick from a talent perspective was good, but from a the larger goal of getting the player into our lineup, it was a bit of a failure. I really wish that had worked out for us. Can you imagine him on our back end and what that would look like for the next five to ten years? Yikes.

I think there is a difference depending on the round. If you are drafting someone in the first round, I think you need to have confidence in signing him because if you can't and have to trade them, you probably aren't going to get equal or more value. But even then it is a risk assessment. The Blues and Caps drafted two front talents (Tarasenko and Kuznetzov) who only dropped because of the Russian factor. That paid off huge.

But in other rounds, I think it matters less, and in fact it is opportunity to draft guys with high potential that may be dropping due to the "russian" or "college" factors. And if you have to trade them, you probably still get good value.

In the case of Fox, I think they got way more value from that pick than what is typical of a 3rd. So for me it's a win.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by New Era

In the same fashion Tim Erixon was a mistake. Isn't the intent to find the best players that want to play for your team? What use is a player that has no interest in playing for your organization? We got lucky because he was a college player and our control window was a little more restrictive and gave the Flames more time to make a deal. We also got very lucky that he had an explosive development curve that made him of interest, but even that was a diminished return because of his desire to play for only one team. So yes, the pick from a talent perspective was good, but from a the larger goal of getting the player into our lineup, it was a bit of a failure. I really wish that had worked out for us. Can you imagine him on our back end and what that would look like for the next five to ten years? Yikes.

This feels like nit-picking to me considering how focused you are on actual and perceived draft failures while completely ignoring the rather impressive collection of later picks currently looking like potential impact NHL players. I would say your view is less "holistic" and more like a confirmation bias.

The problem has not been the draft itself. The problem has been the number of picks the Flames have brought with them to the draft table.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Fair comments Bingo. Difference of opinion I guess. I look at things holistically and have certain expectations. Scouting is like talent recruitment. Don't bring me people that have no interest in my team or you already know I can't sign. Those people have no value to me. I only care about investing time and energy into people that I'm going to see some benefit from my investment, and I hope that is a long-term return. Once I have those people in my organization it is then my responsibility to continue their development and training so they continue to progress to be top performers and overachievers. Both play important roles in talent acquisition for the team. I think the scouts have made some mistakes in that regard, and Fox was one of them. Another being Tim Erixon in the past. Just something where they should learn from past mistakes and be more aware of such issues. Since there is such a reliance on character you would think this would be something that would come up in discussions with players. Again, different perspectives I guess.

That isn't the scouts job at all.

He's there to assess talent, and project said talent into the player's adulthood.

So many issues with your post.

Are you honestly assuming that six months before the draft Adam Fox was the same "I'll decide where I play" Adam Fox of two years later? Can't see it. Making world junior teams and getting noticed changed his view of his leverage.

I think his attendance at two development camps suggests he hadn't vocalized that view or perhaps even had that view until later.

But whatever ... this is a rabbit hole again. The scouting staff is adding players, which is good drafting, which is what you suggested isn't happening.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think there is a difference depending on the round. If you are drafting someone in the first round, I think you need to have confidence in signing him because if you can't and have to trade them, you probably aren't going to get equal or more value. But even then it is a risk assessment. The Blues and Caps drafted two front talents (Tarasenko and Kuznetzov) who only dropped because of the Russian factor. That paid off huge.

But in other rounds, I think it matters less, and in fact it is opportunity to draft guys with high potential that may be dropping due to the "russian" or "college" factors. And if you have to trade them, you probably still get good value.

In the case of Fox, I think they got way more value from that pick than what is typical of a 3rd. So for me it's a win.

Good comments and I can see that. I think it worked out for the Flames too in some ways, but having Fox in the lineup would likely have been a greater advantage. You're better off having those young cost controlled players in your lineup rather than trading them away, especially when you look at our lineup and wanting to improve it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by New Era

Good comments and I can see that. I think it worked out for the Flames too in some ways, but having Fox in the lineup would likely have been a greater advantage. You're better off having those young cost controlled players in your lineup rather than trading them away, especially when you look at our lineup and wanting to improve it.

Of course, you are better off with having Fox in the lineup. But what is better than not ever having Fox is having the assets which Fox certainly helped to secure. At the bottom line this is a discussion about whether it was the best decision to draft Fox, or to draft another player available at selection-spot #66. I don't think there is a single player on that list who provides an obviously better return for what the Flames ultimately received.

[Enoch Root]

No 17 or 18 year old kid - pre-draft - is going to say that they don't want to play here or there. They would get labeled as having a problem attitude.

As Bingo said, you fast-forward a couple years, where scouts and analysts are blowing smoke up their ass, and you could see them feeling very differently about how much leverage they have.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This feels like nit-picking to me considering how focused you are on actual and perceived draft failures while completely ignoring the rather impressive collection of later picks currently looking like potential impact NHL players.

Who are these players? What rather impressive collection of later picks are currently looking like potential impact players?

Originally Posted by Bingo

The scouting staff is adding players, which is good drafting, which is what you suggested isn't happening.

Your comments on the podcast were "4th, 5th, 6th. 7th round picks that are suddenly interesting" so I took that to mean you were looking specifically at those players. To be specific to those rounds the Flames have Mangipane (2015, 6th round, 166th), Gaudreau (2011, 4th round, 104th), and TJ Brodie (2008, 4th round, 114th) from the later rounds playing for them. They also did get Ferland and Kulak out of those later rounds as well. But under Treliving's tenure they have Mangipane to show for it. When you look at the minors you can see that they are thin as hell. That is because Treliving has bled picks like crazy, but also because they are picking players from systems that give them longer development windows before they are pressed to make a signing decision. Don't get me wrong, its a good strategy for the longer shot players in the later rounds because it buys more development time, but the reality is they are long shots because they need more development time. Taking that into consideration, I don't believe we have a player there until they can step into the pros and show some dominance at the AHL level. Been bit by the hype way too many times to think otherwise now. The highs and lows from these players should give you a great deal of pause.

If this is not what I meant, okay, I'm fine with that. If you're saying that you're counting the top rounds, okay, things look a little better. But that was the emphasis you placed on the rounds and finding talent. Any ways, it was not a condemnation of anything or anyone, I just would have liked to have heard more discussion in this area to get more insight and have you identify these players that you think have the potential to step in and help this team out. I wanted to hear MORE on that topic because I'm not convinced of that fact and would have liked to have heard your reasoning behind that statement.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Who are these players? What rather impressive collection of later picks are currently looking like potential impact players?



Your comments on the podcast were "4th, 5th, 6th. 7th round picks that are suddenly interesting" so I took that to mean you were looking specifically at those players. To be specific to those rounds the Flames have Mangipane (2015, 6th round, 166th), Gaudreau (2011, 4th round, 104th), and TJ Brodie (2008, 4th round, 114th) from the later rounds playing for them. They also did get Ferland and Kulak out of those later rounds as well. But under Treliving's tenure they have Mangipane to show for it. When you look at the minors you can see that they are thin as hell. That is because Treliving has bled picks like crazy, but also because they are picking players from systems that give them longer development windows before they are pressed to make a signing decision. Don't get me wrong, its a good strategy for the longer shot players in the later rounds because it buys more development time, but the reality is they are long shots because they need more development time. Taking that into consideration, I don't believe we have a player there until they can step into the pros and show some dominance at the AHL level. Been bit by the hype way too many times to think otherwise now. The highs and lows from these players should give you a great deal of pause.

If this is not what I meant, okay, I'm fine with that. If you're saying that you're counting the top rounds, okay, things look a little better. But that was the emphasis you placed on the rounds and finding talent. Any ways, it was not a condemnation of anything or anyone, I just would have liked to have heard more discussion in this area to get more insight and have you identify these players that you think have the potential to step in and help this team out. I wanted to hear MORE on that topic because I'm not convinced of that fact and would have liked to have heard your reasoning behind that statement.

The hit rate for 4th round and on isn't great for any franchise, but it was a barren wasteland for the Flames for a long long time.

So when I referred to those picks specifically it's because a) it went from zero to probably above average and b) they've traded so many 1-3 round picks they needed that.

The biggest issue in this conversation is time, because as you say 4-7th rounders take more time and the timeline started 2015.

But of interest I see Mangiapane as graduated, and Phillips, Ruzicka, Pettersson and Wolf all on a pretty good development arch.

That's 5 in 4 years which is excellent since a good draft year nets you two players, and the team is doing well with rounds 1-3 when they have them.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The hit rate for 4th round and on isn't great for any franchise, but it was a barren wasteland for the Flames for a long long time.

So when I referred to those picks specifically it's because a) it went from zero to probably above average and b) they've traded so many 1-3 round picks they needed that.

The biggest issue in this conversation is time, because as you say 4-7th rounders take more time and the timeline started 2015.

But of interest I see Mangiapane as graduated, and Phillips, Ruzicka, Pettersson and Wolf all on a pretty good development arch.

That's 5 in 4 years which is excellent since a good draft year nets you two players, and the team is doing well with rounds 1-3 when they have them.

Thank you for the insight. I agree that Mangipane has graduated. Important player moving forward unless he gets greedy come contract negotiation time. I think he's a solid second or third liner that can provide support scoring for years to come.

Ruzicka is an interesting player. Love the size and his ability to score. It would be huge for him to provide some size on that right side. Do you think he's on the verge? I hope the AHL gets going again so he gets the playing time he needs and continues his growth as I think he's still a project.

Phillips is a guy that I just have a natural bias against and don't see him making the jump to the NHL. He is just so tiny, and I struggle to look past that. Phillips is not quite the waterbug that Gaudreau is, so I fear him getting killed out there. For that reason I think he's still massive long shot, and with the way the Flames went out against the Stars, I'm not sure there is a place on this team for another small forward.

Wolf has come out of nowhere. Has some really gaudy numbers and racked up a clost full of awards this year. Something to get excited about? Sure. Should we wait until he hits the pros before thinking he's the goaltender of the future? I would also say sure. We know how messy goaltending development is. You never say you've got a good one until they've dominated in the AHL. Definitely a player we need to keep an eye on, but we also have to keep in the back of our minds that he was drafted 4th last for a reason. Hey, do I think it would be awesome for us to find our goaltender of the future with the 4th last pick in the draft? Hell yes. That would be the hockey Gods paying us a solid for the 4th overall pick in 2014!

Again, thanks for your insight. The podcast was great and I'm looking forward to the next one.

[Bingo]

Did some digging on draft success during Treliving's tenure.

So 2015-2019

Flames ranks ...

Picks 28th (valid criticism)
GP 9th (solid given the number above)
GP/Pick 2nd

That's really good bang for buck using the most basic measure of games played.

Now to get into later round picks etc.

Rounds 4-7

Flames ranks ...

Picks 13th (moving their top picks mostly)
GP 10th
GP/Pick 10th

So Flames a top ten drafting team for the bottom half of the draft using that measure.

And for kicks ... the top three rounds

Flames ranks ...

Picks 31st (yuck! enough already)
GP 9th
GP/Pick 1st

So you can say Treliving moves too many picks, but the scouting staff is doing very very well in finding talent up and down the draft board.

Can't get any better than 1st!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Thank you for the insight. I agree that Mangipane has graduated. Important player moving forward unless he gets greedy come contract negotiation time. I think he's a solid second or third liner that can provide support scoring for years to come.

Ruzicka is an interesting player. Love the size and his ability to score. It would be huge for him to provide some size on that right side. Do you think he's on the verge? I hope the AHL gets going again so he gets the playing time he needs and continues his growth as I think he's still a project.

Phillips is a guy that I just have a natural bias against and don't see him making the jump to the NHL. He is just so tiny, and I struggle to look past that. Phillips is not quite the waterbug that Gaudreau is, so I fear him getting killed out there. For that reason I think he's still massive long shot, and with the way the Flames went out against the Stars, I'm not sure there is a place on this team for another small forward.

Wolf has come out of nowhere. Has some really gaudy numbers and racked up a clost full of awards this year. Something to get excited about? Sure. Should we wait until he hits the pros before thinking he's the goaltender of the future? I would also say sure. We know how messy goaltending development is. You never say you've got a good one until they've dominated in the AHL. Definitely a player we need to keep an eye on, but we also have to keep in the back of our minds that he was drafted 4th last for a reason. Hey, do I think it would be awesome for us to find our goaltender of the future with the 4th last pick in the draft? Hell yes. That would be the hockey Gods paying us a solid for the 4th overall pick in 2014!

Again, thanks for your insight. The podcast was great and I'm looking forward to the next one.

Yeah I'm not sold on any of Ruzicka, Phillips or Pettersson ... but I think it's a good sign that they're still a discussion point.

For years on years it was back into the draft time for all of Calgary's late picks.

Wolf isn't a one year guy, this is year three of huge performance, two as a starter.

Doesn't make him a given but it's certainly interesting.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Trust me, I'm eagerly waiting to see Wolf in the AHL. Those numbers in Everett are epic. It is hard not to get excited, but then I look at the wasteland of goaltending prospects our minor league system has become and it tempers all enthusiasm. In fact, it makes me wish we could loan him to another team with proven goaltending coaching.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by New Era

Trust me, I'm eagerly waiting to see Wolf in the AHL. Those numbers in Everett are epic. It is hard not to get excited, but then I look at the wasteland of goaltending prospects our minor league system has become and it tempers all enthusiasm. In fact, it makes me wish we could loan him to another team with proven goaltending coaching.

My concerns about Wolf are simply his size. It would be unusual to seem a goalie of his size find success at the NHL level in the current times.
That being said, all you can ask from a late round pick is progression and a chance. Moreover, I'm a fan of using those picks for home run swings as they can be franchise altering. Drafting a Brett Kulak in a late round doesn't change much.

[Flash Walken]

The Flames have spent 2x4th round picks in the last 2 years to try to replace Kulak, so I don't know how accurate that is.

Getting players out of the draft is hugely important, late round home runs or not.