31 Thoughts - Oct 31

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Since a lot of the talk has been about the first line specifically lets look at them through 14 games last year vs 14 games this year.

First 14 games last year:

CF%: 49.8%
xGF%: 42.4%

Shots For: 63
Scoring Chances For: 63
GF: 8
Shooting Percentage: 12.7%

Shots Against: 79
Scoring Chances Against:80
GA: 10
Save Percentage: .873

This year:

CF%: 55.7%
xGF%: 52.3% ]

Shots For: 77
Scoring Chances For: 65
GF: 6
Shooting Percentage: 7.8%

Shots Against: 62
Scoring Chances Against: 54
GA: 5
Save Percentage: .919

Considering the coaching staff had asked them to commit more to a 200ft game, the results look like they were doing exactly what the coach wanted them to do.

More shots for, fewer shots against, similar scoring chance numbers while giving up way less, and actually +1 instead of -2 at 5v5 last year. They were playing a way better 200 ft game. The shooting percentage just cratered and pucks aren't going in for them.

This is a really great post.

Thanks for digging into the finer details a bit.

All things being equal, shooting percentage tends to normalize back to historical averages over time. If that happens, and they maintain the improvements to their defensive play, and the SV% stays where it is, we are in for a nice run of good hockey.

I know, if, if, if. But historically, Gaudreau and Monahan have proven to be strong scorers. The Flames seem to be getting average goal tending (or a bit better).

Here's to a strong next couple months! Lets get some positivism going for the boys. The sky is not falling! The oilers are beginning their annual polar plunge. By the looks of things we are one strong game from the top line getting their mojo back and going on a roll.

No better way to do so than to go into Nashville and punch the preds right in the teeth.

Go Flambes!

[SuperMatt18]

I've tried to clean up the view of the stats for the first line.

Really at 5v5 they are better than they were to start last season except for shooting percentage.

And when you look at the underlying numbers their overall play is similar to what they did through the whole season but they actually have been better defensively to start this season than they were last season.

Issue is the puck just isn't going in for them.

[djsFlames]

When Monahan and Gaudreau rediscover their mojo we're probably in for another lengthy win streak to put us in par with last season.

That's just a matter of time, but damn did last playoffs mess with their psyches. No confidence in their abilities right now.

We need a Hall level player injected to help keep the scoring elevated and take a little pressure off of those two. They just don't do well having the teams hopes of scoring largely put on them. Which is why one may need to be shipped out before this window closes.

[djsFlames]

We just need consistent production from two lines to significantly help our chances. Its far too easy for opposing teams to zero in on our biggest threat. Most games it seems to ride on the fortunes of one trio that holds all the firepower. Have to find a way to create that line 1A and 1B.

3M has been too hot and cold. These new combos theoretically should work but there isn't a visible chemistry between Monahan's line, so it falls back on Gaudreau and co to produce.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

We just need consistent production from two lines to significantly help our chances. Its far too easy for opposing teams to zero in on our biggest threat. Most games it seems to ride on the fortunes of one trio that holds all the firepower. Have to find a way to create that line 1A and 1B.

3M has been too hot and cold. These new combos theoretically should work but there isn't a visible chemistry between Monahan's line, so it falls back on Gaudreau and co to produce.

I think there is the potential for more balance in the line up and 4 good lines to start games, and I think potentially giving Dube a shot is part of that, and moving Janko to wing can be part of that.

I think this team has potential for 4 pairs that have worked well together, and if the goal is to run 4 lines then I think that should be the starting point.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Bennett : This line has looked okay in past attempts but have never really gotten an extended look. IMO Bennett should be able to be what Ferland was to this line - he just needs to keep his game simple instead of always trying to do too much once he gets on the top line.

Tkachuk - Lindholm - Dube : Dube has the speed and skill to play in the NHL, the coach and GM just want him to work on his board play. Well if that is the concern why not put him with two guys who dominate on the boards and you shouldn't have to worry about it.

Jankowski - Backlund - Frolik : Janko has played wing in college and I think his skill set may be better suited along the wall.

Mangiapane - Ryan - Lucic : These three have looked okay together and Mangiapane and Ryan both look their best when paired together.

Then if you need a goal or if it's late in a tight game - you can shorten the bench you can try to switch things up by running with some lines that had proven chemistry in the past:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik
Mangiapane - Ryan - Bennett

That would be my plan if I was Peters.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Tyler

Fun fact, Gaudreau is also leading the league in offensive zone dump outs after 800 unsuccessful short side wrist shots

I don't have a lot to critic about Gaudreau's game since he's always been a consistent producer. But that high short side shot is by far his lamest move. It's worked I believe a total of TWO times, both times on (I think) the Nashville goalies. It almost never actually hits the net and 99% of the time it ends up being a giveaway with the puck heading the other direction.

[Toonage]

At this point if you're a Flames defender and you see Gaudreau drop behind the dot, start backing up and hugging the wall.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I don't have a lot to critic about Gaudreau's game since he's always been a consistent producer. But that high short side shot is by far his lamest move. It's worked I believe a total of TWO times, both times on (I think) the Nashville goalies. It almost never actually hits the net and 99% of the time it ends up being a giveaway with the puck heading the other direction.

And all he has to do to make it effective is to shoot low into the goalie pads and tell Mony to wait for the rebound in the slot which is where he makes his money.

That's the problem with Johnny is that he is always trying to make the highlight reel play, whether it's going top corner or a ridiculous angle or trying to thread a low percentage pass on the powerplay across the royal road. He should really try and work some simplicity into his game.

Putting a low shot on net for a rebound isn't a bad idea if you have garbage man on your line.

[GioforPM]

I don't mind the low percentage shot per se. He never does it unless his options are gone, it keeps the goalie honest and can therefore set up other stuff. But I agere he needs to vary the location some. It really doesn't exit the zone as much as, say, Stone's point shot.

[rohara66]

Originally Posted by 868904

That's the problem with Johnny is that he is always trying to make the highlight reel play, whether it's going top corner or a ridiculous angle or trying to thread a low percentage pass on the powerplay across the royal road. He should really try and work some simplicity into his game.

Putting a low shot on net for a rebound isn't a bad idea if you have garbage man on your line.

Monahan, Chucky and others have the same issue with just throwing the puck on the net. Too many cross slot passes!