The Flames since the All-Star Break: Highs and Lows

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

It's that time of the year. Other teams start playing harder in February and March. This is not a secret or a revelation. Our top line (GML) is very fast and skilled; they're a pleasure to watch, when they're flying. But they are not tough and not big, which makes it easier to play against them. You can't push players like Iginla, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stone, Benn, Radulov etc. around; they push back and make you pay. You can push our top line around, because they don't. It's that simple, I think. So, it is not that our GML line is playing bad. It's just that the other teams are playing better against them now. I know you consistently disagree with the "size" argument. But it cannot be dismissed.

Monahan is around 6'3" / 205+ lbs
Lindholm is around 6'1" / 195+ lbs and he's pretty tough in front of the net
Tkachuk is around 6'2" / 200+ lbs and he's one of the league's premiere pests

Saying these guys aren't "big" is patently false.

If there's a problem with that line, it's a lack of dynamic skill and outside shooting ability.

Gaudreau is being double teamed and there's no one to punish the opponent. Neither Monahan nor Lindholm nor Tkachuk have the edgework or high-end puck skills to really break opponents down after they commit to Gaudreau (in fact I think only Dube and Bennett do on the whole forward core), and our team does not have a one-timer from the circles to punish opponents for collapsing into the slot.

It's not a lack of toughness, it's too much reliance on one gambit (Gaudreau breaking down the defenses to open up a tap in for Lindholm or a slot shot for Monahan).

The Flames need a "release" in the form of a sniper that forces opponents to pressure more.

Monahan and Lindholm and Tkachuk, if they're gonna be that release, need to start moving into one time positions outside of the slot when the slot is covered - be less predictable. All three of those guys have some shooting skill but haven't established themselves as scorers from the soft outside areas where guys like Kucherov, Kane, Seguin, Pastrnak, Stamkos, etc thrive. Gaudreau can't be the outside shot because no one can really set him up and his shot is pretty inconsequential from outside.

Otherwise I would get one of Dube or Bennett on that line to relieve some of the pressure from Gaudreau. But I would only want those two on that line as centremen as I don't think they work as wingers in that role. It's the nature of the wing position to restrict mobility.

[Jaydee]

give me:

Gaudrea-Lindholm-Bennett

[Rtown]

Hmmmm. I don’t know what CF or HD or PO even stands for. Nor do I care to learn. I still prefer the Ol eyeball test, looking at the scoring race and the win column.

Besides, I’m too old to go diving into lockers and we’re all out of towels

Now get off my damn lawn!!!!!

[DomeFoam]

I think another issue may be lack of speed in that top 6. This is a speed league now and the Flames don't have enough of it up there. Monahan and Tkachuk are notorious for their skating issues and like GranteedEV said once Gaudreau is shut down theirs no one fast and dynamic enough to pull attention off Gaudreau because both Tkachuk and Monahan are both easy to cover off the breakout and predictable once they do get the puck. Zucker would've been great for this because the man can rip and make plays at that speed simultaneously. Backlund doesn't have the scoring touch and honestly is a 3rd line centreman because of his absent nose for the net.

I would disagree that Lindholm and Tkachuk don't have high end puck skills and Bennett does. I would argue Tkachuk has the strongest puck skills after Gaudreau. You've seen what he can do in tight. See between the legs goal against NYI. Bennett tries the same between the D's legs move every time he comes in on the D. I feel like hes stickhandling in molasses sometimes. His role is jam; to muck it up and get that dirty goal. He will never be top 6.

[Erick Estrada]

Dom Luszczyszyn from the Athletic kind of debunks the importance of playing heavy hockey in the playoffs. Hitting in general doesn't equate to winning in the playoffs but even more noteworthy the bigger the disparity between hits in a series the greater the chance the team that is hitting more loses as teams that average 5-10 hits per game more than their opponent have a 44% winning percentage compared to the team that hits less which has a 49% winning percentage. The wider the gap the winning percentage drops further for the more aggressive team to below 40%.

https://theathletic.com/855984/2019/...-the-playoffs/

[TheScorpion]

it's pretty common-sense, tbh -- if you have possession of the puck, it's far more difficult to record a hit

[Phagoof]

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Neal

[BigErnSalute_16]

Originally Posted by Phagoof

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Neal

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Neal
Tkachuk-Monahan-Bennett
Jankowski-Backlund-Frolik
Mangiapane-Ryan-Hathaway

I wouldn't mind seeing that tried out for a couple of games when Neal is back.

edit: forgot about Czarnik. For now tho maybe Bennett on that first line, Czarnik in Bennett's spot on second.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Meant to post this in this thread:

I was talking to my brother about what's up with the losing streak and we both agreed that CGY are playing extremely well in their end and even in transition. In recent games it seems the first point of breakdown seems to be that first pass or play into the offensive zone. A bobble, a pass that puts a team mate in a tough spot etc.

I recall Gio saying recently that they have to play the right way and then be dynamic in the offensive zone. They are doing exactly as Gio describes but it's just off right now in the offensive zone.

I asked my brother if a team should 'change the way they play' or change their identity so it obviously begs the question of what's the identity? I think CGY are a highly skilled, highly intelligent, highly competitive group that just blows minds when you add swagger in. They need to keep that and once the swagger comes back - and it assuredly will - they will be unstoppable.

For me, trying to fix their current issues (scoring) is akin to when a PP struggles to convert. Perhaps it's simplifying (get traffic and shots through) or maybe you change up some tactics but you stick with the belief in what your team is.

CGY are close to breaking out in goal scoring. Once they get one, I think the floodgates will explode open. Chucky against ARZ beat Crouse just inside the offensive blueline, walked in and almost sniped a beauty but it was blocked - that's how close - but they kept after the puck and got some secondary chances.

The first couple of plays inside the offensive zone is where they need to bear down - everyone is tightening up and taking away time and space but through tactics and skill/ability this team is going to be lights out - I just see it.

Get in that good headspace, get in a good rhythm and flow and just continue to make plays.

[Bingo]

When I coach kids I always suggest that although we've all been taught to dictate the play, only a fool wouldn't make the best of what they are given.

Take a two on one and you're carrying the puck. If the defender plays you ... pass it. If he doesn't, shoot. Read and react.

The top line is being forced to the perimeter right now and as a result they're forcing things, in an attempt to play the way they did in December and January. It's not there.

The only way to break that down is to get pucks to the point and crash the net. Do that for a spell and the opposing coaching staffs will alter the way they play them based on recent video. To keep forcing things through the middle when its blocked is silly.

[Sandman]

In the last 4 games, the Flames are second in the league in CF% at 57.9%. PDO is dead last. They are playing well, and playing the right way, it’s just that they have no puck luck (which is bound to right itself), and they aren’t getting enough saves from the goalies despite keeping the chances low.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Sandman

In the last 4 games, the Flames are second in the league in CF% at 57.9%. PDO is dead last. They are playing well, and playing the right way, it’s just that they have no puck luck (which is bound to right itself), and they aren’t getting enough saves from the goalies despite keeping the chances low.

If I am reading the numbers correctly, while the top line is still generating a positive CF% their high danger chances are down, and this is a big part of the problem. They are not responding well to the tighter checking for a variety of reasons—opposition coaching adjustments? psychological factors? The effects of size/strength? A lack of speed? A combination of the above?

[dabrit]

The problem this team continues to have is that in the second half of the season things become tighter and more physical and teams take away time and space. Our so called best player in Gaudreau is completely incapable of fighting through contact and making plays and he's so terrified of getting hurt that anytime he has someone on him he basically just goes limp and lets them have the puck which is 100% completely inexcusable in the NHL.

Monahan is completely dependant on Gaudreau feeding him pucks and is completely incapable of beating defenders one on one and getting the shot off. He has to be setup yeah I know he didn't have Gaudreau in his first season but he did have Hudler. Lindholm is decent but goes hot and cold and still doesn't have elite level skill like Gaudreau.

In short I don't think this core in it's current state has the potential to win a cup ...ever win a round or two sure. But they have got to start becoming harder to play against and being able to fight through contact and have a level of determination that leads to success.

Every year it's the same #### with this team they fold in the 2nd half way too easily.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

If I am reading the numbers correctly, while the top line is still generating a positive CF% their high danger chances are down, and this is a big part of the problem. They are not responding well to the tighter checking for a variety of reasons—opposition coaching adjustments? psychological factors? The effects of size/strength? A lack of speed? A combination of the above?

I agree that the top line has been a problem. I think that teams are keying better on Gaudreau (who seems off), and Mony just plain sucks right now-I think he’s playing hurt again....

[dabrit]

The past two seasons Gaudreau in the first half of the season was on pace for 40 plus goals and 110 points but then went to sleep in the 2nd half. Why? Because he's just so soft and get's scared as soon as he has someone on him.

He's gotta start accepting the fact when the games get tough you gotta take contact to make a play and can't just go limp and turnover the puck....it's really that simple

[Jeff Lebowski]

I heard Geoff Ward talk about making the offensive zone big. Get the opponent to cover the entire zone and pull them out of their structure. I like that and think that is a great way to play as you can do this a lot of different ways.

[Winsor_Pilates]

This correlates to the eyeball test. The numbers of games where the Flames have actually looked outplayed can be counted on 1 hand.
They are losing the goalie battle many nights and not finishing their chances, but they carry the play almost every night.

Something will give & hopefully just at the right time.

[rych]

What if it's because Frolik knew he was gonna get traded to Minnesota and now he's messing the locker room up?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by dabrit

The past two seasons Gaudreau in the first half of the season was on pace for 40 plus goals and 110 points but then went to sleep in the 2nd half. \Why? Because he's just so soft and get's scared as soon as he has someone on him.

He's gotta start accepting the fact when the games get tough you gotta take contact to make a play and can't just go limp and turnover the puck....it's really that simple

I do not accept that it is "just that simple." Yes, I agree that a part of the problem now for the top line is the tighter checking that occurs at this time of year, but this in fact IS something that Gaudreau and Monahan have encountered and overcome in the past. In their two playoff seasons their mid-season splits were as follows:

Gaudreau 2014–15 first 41 — 31 pts/40 GP
second 41 — 33 pts/40 GP
2016–17 first 41 — 26 pts/31GP
second 41 — 35 pts/41 GP

Monahan 2014–15 first 41 — 25 pts/41 GP
second half —37/40 GP
2016–17 first 41 — 22 pts/41 GP
second 41 — 36 pts/41 GP

There are other factors beyond a fear of injury, contact or size and strength that are contributing to their lack of production now.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by rych

What if it's because Frolik knew he was gonna get traded to Minnesota and now he's messing the locker room up?

Why would Frolik's supposed bad attiutude so negatively affect the top line, while the bottom six simultaneously appears excellent? This does not make any sense.