[Signing] Flames sign Hathaway (1 yr, $850k, 1 way). 2nd Buyout window opens Aug 2

[PugnaciousIntern]

That Neal contract has really upended the anticipated direction of the Flames cap management. Looking long term, I think it’s much more important to sign Tkachuk to a long term deal next year than it is to sign Hanifin long term. However, next year the only significant contract coming off the books is Smith. Got to imagine that one way or another, there’s a bit of money spent on goaltending next year, whether internal (Rittich takes over the starters role and gets a raise) or external.

Most people here don’t seem to expect Brouwer to play the last year of his contract with the Flames. At least it feels that way, perhaps because I’m one of them. Regardless, I think they will prioritize a bridge contract for Hanifin, dump Brouwer this year or next, but between savings from a lower Hanifin cap hit, loss of Brouwer, cap rise, and possible goaltending savings, a long term Tkachuk contract will be done. Much more important in my mind than stretching the limits this year for a long term Hanifin deal, then not having enough to offer Tkachuk next year.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Royle9

More bottom 6 log jam scenarios for sure now!

Something has got to give, my hope is a Brouwer buyout but you rarely see buyouts in August so I'm not holding my breathe.

I'd rather have Lazar play 13th forward and have given Hathaway another 2way deal but what can you do. This pretty much means Hathaway will be the 13th forward so now we've got to figure out what to do for a 4th line.

I feel were 2+ heavy in the forward group and 1+ heavy on the backend with the 1 way deal for Prout + Kulak leaving no "room" for Andersson/Valimaki without a subtraction.

Funny - I was wondering whether his qualifying offer had to be one way, but it seems like it didn't. It would have if he'd played 60 games last year but he only played 59. That makes me wonder if that number of games was intentional by Treliving (even though he didn't end up giving a one way QO as far as I know).

ETA: I think I'm wrong there - there are three criteria for a one way QO and it reads like they all have to be met (Hathaway didn't have the other two either).

[Vinny01]

Hanafin likely will get a 2 year bridge around Montour’s money. In 2 years Brodie, Hamonic, Brouwer, Frolik all come off the books so Tre will have some flexibility there to go big with Noah at that time

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Hanafin likely will get a 2 year bridge around Montour’s money. In 2 years Brodie, Hamonic, Brouwer, Frolik all come off the books so Tre will have some flexibility there to go big with Noah at that time

I would hope they don't come off the books. I would hope they are entitled to raises.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I would hope they don't come off the books. I would hope they are entitled to raises.

I assume one will be kept but if Valimaki, Andersson, Kylington and Hanifin play as projected I doubt they will give raises to both of those Dmen who will be entering their age 30 season. I suspect Hamonic would be retained and Brodie moves on but a lot can happen in 2 years. 2 years ago if you told me they would trade Dougie I wouldn’t believe it.

[tkflames]

I would have guessed that had the flames taken this to arbitration, they may have saved another $50k, but the ask from Hathaway was a lot more reasonable than Kulak (so likely not worth it).

Looking at the next couple of years, the Flames need to be very careful here going forward. There is not a lot of salary coming off the books next year (really only Mike Smith who presumable is re-signed for a minor discount in contract or is replaced by another $4M goalie). In that time, Tkachuck and Bennett will both (hopefully) require substantial raises. Assuming that Tkachuck has a matching year to this one he would definitely be in the $5M+ range (bridge or otherwise) and if he continues on his growth path he may be in the team-internal cap range.

Realistically speaking (looking at the deltas) and recognizing that any other players on close to minimum contracts will need to be re-signed or replaced by players on similar contracts:

+4M Cap Increase (max)
+1M** Potential Savings from re-signing Smith to a cheaper contract
-4.15 to 6M for Tkachuck's increase in salary (total Salary up to $6.85M)
-2M for Bennets increase in salary
+3M for Brouwer Buyout
+2.3M for Stone Buyout (3.5M for Stone Trade)
+0M Performance Bonus Carry-Over
+0.9M Current Buy-outs off the books
-------------------------
$3.2M to $5.05M available assuming the cap does in fact go up $4M, Brouwer and Stone are bought out this year or next year

**+3M if one of Gillies or Rittich can take the starter job outright this year, I don't think the team will be comfortable going with those two unless one has at a minimum "Grubaured" this year.

I did this analysis to convince myself that they should not max-out the cap this year on Hanifin to ensure they have sufficient options next year with Tkachuck's pending raise. Looking at this now, I believe that they can go to the $4.5M on Hanifin without any major issues next year. This would leave a ~$3M cushion, in case:
1. Tkachuck becomes an $8M player instead of $6.5M,
2. Bennet becomes a $5.5M player instead of $4M player
3. The cap goes up by less than $4M
4. We need to pay a starting goalie more than the $4.25M that we are paying Smith.

Two other items stood out of this analysis and review for me:
1. Our days of adding without subtracting are largely over for the next 2 years. Our days of hunting for a big name FA are likely over until the summer of 2020.

2. Bridging Hanafin for only two years is dangerous because his contract would be due the same year as Brodie and Hamonic. I would hope that at least one of: Valimaki or Anderson is playing a top 4 role at that point allowing the Flames to re-up at least two of the three by using the third defenders salary.

I think a 5-6 year deal at $4.5M is probably as high as the Flames would probably want to go with Hanifin. A 5-6 year deal would probably cost closer to $5.5M. Based on the above, that is definitely outside of my comfort zone, it will be interesting to see if the Flames feel the same way.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I assume one will be kept but if Valimaki, Andersson, Kylington and Hanifin play as projected I doubt they will give raises to both of those Dmen who will be entering their age 30 season. I suspect Hamonic would be retained and Brodie moves on but a lot can happen in 2 years. 2 years ago if you told me they would trade Dougie I wouldn’t believe it.

In two years Gio is what - 36? He will have a Modified NTC. I wonder what they will have to do with him?

[shadowz]

Makes me wonder if Brouwer has already been told he will be bought out. We saw him and some movers at his house last week. The house is completely empty now.

[The Hendog]

Originally Posted by shadowz

Makes me wonder if Brouwer has already been told he will be bought out. We saw him and some movers at his house last week. The house is completely empty now.

I thought he and his family decided to live in Calgary before he even signed in Calgary a couple years ago? Changed their minds perhaps.

[shadowz]

Originally Posted by The Hendog

I thought he and his family decided to live in Calgary before he even signed in Calgary a couple years ago? Changed their minds perhaps.

Unsure, but he has been in this home since he signed. Now the house is empty not too sure if I'm reading too much into it but could be a sign of things to come

[Yoho]

I wonder if there is a chance Tkachuck gets offer sheeted by another club next year.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

In two years Gio is what - 36? He will have a Modified NTC. I wonder what they will have to do with him?

Gio will be nearly 37 in 2 years time as he will turn 35 the first month of this season. Maybe they do something with him but I get the feeling he is here for his entire contract

[TheScorpion]

Moving out one of Frolik and Stone to keep Brouwer would be so hysterically stupid. Just buyout Brouwer if you have to although I'd prefer to keep all three to start the season.

[Toonage]

This house that Brouwer moved out of, is it the one he just built?

Or maybe the one he was building is finally done and he's moving into it.

My house took darn near a year to build and likely isn't the size that Brouwer probably had done.

[Royle9]

Realistically if a "perfect world" scenario for ME at least I would like to see:

Brouwer - Bought out
Stone - Traded for picks/prospects
Frolik - Traded for picks/prospects

I think we've got the depth internally with young guys that are ready now and really don't have much to prove in the AHL any longer which also allows for some cap relief for this year and next as you're inserting 2-3 ELC contracts and giving the kids a shot.

Brouwer - Gone, we've got enough active forwards to no longer need him at all.

Andersson - slots in for Stone

Frolik - One of Dube/Foo/Klimchuk/Lazar/Czarnik are likely going to be able to slot in and play effectively in the 3rd line alongside Backlund. I wouldn't worry at all. With that being said I do like what Frolik brings on the PK, hes an effective forward but from a salary standpoint I think he's one we can afford to lose.

[Vinny01]

Brouwer to the Canucks seems like a fit to me. Flames retain $1.5M so it is the same penalty the buyout would have but only for 2 seasons. $3M AAV is what the Canucks spend on veteran 4th liners so it makes a lot of sense.

[TheScorpion]

Brouwer to the Canucks would've made more sense before they signed Beagle and Roussel. Now, they don't really have a ton of room.

If I was looking at fits for Brouwer, Buffalo and the Rangers would stick out.

[Bear]

Originally Posted by shadowz

Makes me wonder if Brouwer has already been told he will be bought out. We saw him and some movers at his house last week. The house is completely empty now.

He was building a new house scheduled to be completed this spring so the move likely has nothing to do with his employment status. He had chosen to make Calgary his offseason home prior to signing with the Flames.

Of course that doesn't mean he wont be bought out.

https://calgaryherald.com/sports/hoc...four-year-deal

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

Much more important in my mind than stretching the limits this year for a long term Hanifin deal, then not having enough to offer Tkachuk next year.

Even if the Flames signing Hanifin long-term and keeping Brouwer brings them to the absolute cap this year (with no bonus overage), Tkachuk's contract "space" could almost be put together by the savings they save from past buyouts (~1M from Bouma and Murphy off the book), the likely increase in cap space next year (this year it went up 4.5M) and Tkachuk's current cap-hit (0.9M).

Banking on 4.5M increase in cap might be optimistic as last year the boost Vegas gave them was apparent. But still 3M would seem like a realistic projection going into the year.

So unless you're expecting Tkachuk to get much more than 6M+, it's not too much of a concern.

That still leaves ~4-5M to sign the goalies. The only wildcard is Bennett, if he improves his game enough they'll be forced to buyout Brouwer (if they didn't already do so) to give him a raise - a terrific problem to have.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Gio will be nearly 37 in 2 years time as he will turn 35 the first month of this season. Maybe they do something with him but I get the feeling he is here for his entire contract

The new CBA will probably have some more buyout options. The problem is that it's Gio, and that would be pretty terrible.

We also, I guess, have to work in some cap increases in the present and future CBAs.