[Signing] Ducks sign Montour (2 year, AAV of $3,387,500)

[cam_wmh]

The last time we had an RFA without arbitration rights, that the Flames wanted with term (speculating), he didn’t get him signed until well into the season. Like Gaudreau, that’s Hanifin’s only leverage play.

[blender]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

The last time we had an RFA without arbitration rights, that the Flames wanted with term (speculating), he didn’t get him signed until well into the season. Like Gaudreau, that’s Hanifin’s only leverage play.

Not a good comparison IMO.

Gaudreau had already shown his elite talent at the NHL level.
Hanafin needs to keep developing into the player he COULD become. Holding out would not be a good option. If he really thinks the team is low balling him, force a short bridge deal and prove himself is his best option.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

It's either 1-2 years or 6-7 years, in my opinion.

3 years would allow him to file for arbitration and force a one-year contract, becoming a UFA after 4 years with the Flames.

4 years brings him to UFA and no reason for the Flames to do that.

5 years is a bit of a middle ground that maybe the Flames bite, but likely not.

1 year gives him the ability to sign the 8-year long-term contract after establishing himself more here so that could be a bit of a potential likelihood. 2 years isn't much difference and gives him two years to prove himself for that massive prime-year contract. And of course 6-7 years gives both the team and player stability.

I also don't think that Montour's deal is especially concerning for the Flames. If year 1 and 2 for Hanifin were valued at the same this is about the value of his contract each year: 3.25M, 3.5M, 3.75M, 4M, 5.5M, 5.5M, 6M. So 1 year with a cap of 3.25M, 2 at 3.375M, 3 at 3.5M, 4 at 3.625M, 5 years at 4M, 6 at 4.25M, and 7 at 4.5M.

I agree with everything but your Valuations. If those are the offers he takes a 2 year and walks away.and then has arb rights and is likely worth trouba money by Year3 in that sequence.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

I agree with everything but your Valuations. If those are the offers he takes a 2 year and walks away.and then has arb rights and is likely worth trouba money by Year3 in that sequence.

I think that's certainly a possibility but I don't know if 'likely' is the right word. Trouba was a shutdown defender on one of the best defensive teams in the league. He was a plus player while going up against the top opponents for 22 minutes a night, and he put up comparable numbers to Hanifin in that role (pro-rated).

If Hanifin does turn into a Trouba-level defenseman, his stock will have raised quite a bit and he'll certainly be getting a massive raise in his valuation. Inversely, if Hanifin stalls in his development, these evaluations still have him peaking at a 6M defender in his last year, so it's not like he isn't getting some value on his "potential."

And while it certainly matters less now, his two teammates in Carolina took a 5.3M for 7 years in Slavin, and 4M for 6 years in Pesce. Slavin was clearly better (and older, but also less RFA years) but those contracts would have set a pretty good boundary for Hanifin.

But you're right, if the difference for the Flames in signing Hanifin for two years or seven years, they might be willing to increase the overall value to get him to sign long-term.

[GullFoss]

6y at $4.5-5.5m is what I'm expecting.

Maybe this explains why Tre is playing hardball with Kulak and Hathaway over such small amounts. Because if he can cut enough salary with RFAs, he can get away with signing hanifin long-term and pushing the browuer buyout by another year.