Tkachuk's next contract

[Monahan For Mayor]

Long term ? I'm thinking 6.5 - 7 for 6/7 years

Short term bridge ? 4.5 x 2/3 years

[Ashasx]

I don't know how anyone could look at the value we're getting from Johnny/Monahan/Dougie and think it would be a smart idea to bridge Tkachuk.

8 years.

[Lanny_McDonald]

8 years, $5.75M cap hit ($3.5, 4, 4.5, 5, 6, 7, 7.5, 8.5M).

[Monahan For Mayor]

Originally Posted by New Era

8 years, $5.75M cap hit ($3.5, 4, 4.5, 5, 6, 7, 7.5, 8.5M).

That's not happening.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I can see why the Flames may want to lock him up in the case he blows up next season as well as gets some long term salary cap certainty but he's probably looking at what Draisaitl got by waiting another year as there's no way he gets that deal based on his 15/16 season.

No way he should have got that deal at all.

[ricardodw]

There are no worries that next year the threat of going the Hamilton route next season and negotiating through through the offer sheet threat? Hamilton sure was not going to do a 2-3 bridge at 3.5.

The Canucks have the draft picks and the cap room for example.

That is a big reason for extending him this off season rather than next.

If the Flames were to sign a name UFA at a mere 6M this off-season (and not off load a current core member) that leaves them with 11 players ( no goalies) with a cap hit of 58M. Say the cap is 82M that leaves 24M for Tkachuk and 10 other players.

Makes it hard for the Flames to match a 7.6M offer sheet.

[yourbestfriend]

Why the hell would either side be thinking of a bridge contract? No incentive for either side.
I think Tkachuk is just under Dougie in terms of value and importance to the team, something under $5.75M long term seems about right.
It's hard to argue over $6M when Mackinnon signed $6.3@7years and Scheifele at $6.1@8years.
Even if you take into account that the cap is projected to increase a bit, I can't see Tkachuk's aav being above $6M.

[DJones]

His comparables aren't all that expensive.

The intangible aspects are usually underpaid. No more than Monahan imo unless he has a crazy year.

[Gaskal]

His camp is almost certain to use the Marchand contract as an example. Marchand signed at $6.125 x 8 years.

Marchand in the 3 years leading up to new contract:
53 pts in 82 games (26 years old, 0.64 ppg)
42 pts in 77 games (27 years old, 0.55 ppg)
61 pts in 77 games (28 years old, 0.79 ppg)

Tkachuk in 2 years of ELC so far:
48 pts in 76 games (19 year old, 0.63 ppg)
49 pts in 68 games (20 year old, 0.72 ppg)
(TBD)

It’s not unreasonable to assume that Matthew will continue to increase his offensive output steadily in the next year, so there is potential to pay for over the duration of the contract in addition to any other intangibles. Is it going to be a huge jump? My guess is no unless we win the Tavares sweepstakes.

Given that he is putting up similar numbers to pre-renewal Marchand but at a much younger age (and with less offensively capable linemates than Pastrnak and Bergeron), I think we are looking at somewhere between Marchand’s AAV and Monahan’s AAV – and more if we’re talking 8 years over just 6-7.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

Less than Gallagher but more than Dougie Hamilton. Also discussed here, though perhaps it's better to get away from the abhorrent punnery in the title of that thread.

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=168059

Somewhere between Johnny and Monahan, 8 years.

Tkabucks!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

His camp is almost certain to use the Marchand contract as an example. Marchand signed at $6.125 x 8 years...

Not likely, since Marchand was a pending UFA when he signed that deal.

[Enoch Root]

6 to 8 years

$5.75 - $6.25M

I think the Marchand deal is a pretty good measuring stick.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Not likely, since Marchand was a pending UFA when he signed that deal.

I believe the UFA inflation factor would be offset, if not surpassed by, Tkachuk arguing for similar production at a much younger age given likewise circumstances.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

6 to 8 years

$5.75 - $6.25M

I think the Marchand deal is a pretty good measuring stick.

Marchand's deal also captures some "later years" though, and add in a touch for inflation due to cap increases and just general salary escalations thanks to Draisaitl and McDavid's deals, and I think Tkachuk will draw a bit more than Marchand's 6.125M.

8 years, 6.75M per seems like a heck of a contract. It shows the kid (and his teammates) that he's as important as Johnny and Gio, and it captures all of his prime years. Alongside the extension, an "A" should be bolted to his chest.

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

His camp is almost certain to use the Marchand contract as an example. Marchand signed at $6.125 x 8 years.

I don't mind giving Tkachuk $6.1M... but in terms of using Marchand as a direct comparable, wouldn't the opposite be true?
In the last 2 seasons Marchand has shown to be a PPG 40goal player who is making $6.1M.
Wouldn't that be an argument to give Tkachuk a lot less than $6.1M?

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

His camp is almost certain to use the Marchand contract as an example. Marchand signed at $6.125 x 8 years.

Did they change this though? As an RFA, I thought only contracts for other RFAs were considered as comparables.

[Macho0978]

6 year deal around 5.75 to 6.25

8 year deal around 6.5 to 7

I'm ok if Treliving keeps with the 6 year deals. It seems to save him around a million per year on the cap hits of players he previously signed. If they got him at 5.75 for 6 years that would give the Flames a great chance at adding missing pieces over the next few summers for the next 5 years

Or allows them to sign a Tavares and not screw your cap

[Macho0978]

Some also have said that he got a lot better this year from last so why would he sign early. I'm not saying he didn't improve but scoring was way up this year. I think around 21 of the top 25 scorers had career years this year or their best year in 5+ years. Guys like Malkin, E Staal, Mackinnon, Kucherov, Giroux, Hall, Kopitar, Wheeler, Kessel all beat their career highs or best season in 5+ by 10 or more points. That's a lot of guys that got a ton better all at once? Or maybe scoring was up?

Tkachuk went from 48 to 49 in 8 less games. It's not that big of a jump that he is getting 8 mil now

[getbak]

Originally Posted by the2bears

Did they change this though? As an RFA, I thought only contracts for other RFAs were considered as comparables.

That's in arbitration.

In open negotiations, you can compare yourself to anyone you want.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

His camp is almost certain to use the Marchand contract as an example. Marchand signed at $6.125 x 8 years.

I mean, I think the value is certainly ballpark, but the contract situation itself is not really comparable. Giving up UFA years is a huge increase for those years, however Marchand's contract is a retirement contract that goes until he's 37 so the added years bring down his cap. And then there's the NMC he gets which would have changed the negotiations. They really are completely different contract negotiations.