Lottery Protecting 1st Round Pick vs. additional 4th Round Pick

[calumniate]

Brodie didn't help the optics for hamonic this year at all unfortunately.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by calumniate

Brodie didn't help the optics for hamonic this year at all unfortunately.

Hamonic’s 11 pts don’t either

[TheSkinner]

Originally Posted by Beninho

Hamonic’s 11 pts don’t either

Wideman would have had more points. Could have re-signed him

[oldschoolcalgary]

I like Hamonic the person...

but, imo, its pretty clearly an overpayment... does anyone think we can get a first round pick and 2 nd rounders for Hamonic if we put him on the block on draft day?

Hamilton cost us #15 and 2 seconds...and the way the Flames are going that first for Hamonic is going to be higher than #15

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

I like Hamonic the person...

but, imo, its pretty clearly an overpayment... does anyone think we can get a first round pick and 2 nd rounders for Hamonic if we put him on the block on draft day?

Hamilton cost us #15 and 2 seconds...and the way the Flames are going that first for Hamonic is going to be higher than #15

That's a bit of a misnomer because we paid a 1st and two 2nds for 3 years of Hamonic. Of course nobody would pay the same price for 2 years of Hamonic. Of course this isn't to say there isn't a debate about whether we overpaid or not.

[Kybb79]

Hamonic is not the big problem on this team. It's that idiot Brodie imo. All the big games they has this year he gave the puck away like a chicken ####!!

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Anduril

That's a bit of a misnomer because we paid a 1st and two 2nds for 3 years of Hamonic. Of course nobody would pay the same price for 2 years of Hamonic. Of course this isn't to say there isn't a debate about whether we overpaid or not.

fair enough...

but at the time of the trade, the Flames paid Hamilton prices.... so either we got a steal on Hamilton or overpaid for Hamonic...

again imo

[Kybb79]

BT overpaid bigtime for Hamonic.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

rebounds? he had a better season this year than last. this is travis hamonic.

This is by far his worst season, last year he played injured for at least 10 games and missed 33 more and still had more points than this year.

Get him a new coach and a new partner and see what happens

[The Cobra]

At the time of the Hamonic trade, the first round pick given up wasn’t known to be a lottery pick, or pick #15 or whatever.

The likely pick given up was probably around #20 or so, so the trade needs to be judged on that basis.

Sure, in hindsight, the trade looks bad, but I don’t believe there were that many complaints at the time it was made.

Whether that pick actually wins the lottery or not does not affect the value of that trade, because that random event doesn’t effect the judging of that trade. Calgary traded a pick that was unlikely to be a top 3 pick, but one that had a small chance of being one. Those chances has obviously increased, but posters are acting like that event has already occurred.


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[getbak]

Another factor to take into account for this question is what the revised cost will be if you get lottery protection and actually win the lottery.

You will almost-always have to pay some sort of premium not just for lottery protection, but also if you use the lottery protection. It's not just a case of adding a fourth round pick for lottery protection.

It's kind of like insurance. You pay the premiums even if you never make a claim, but if you do make a claim, you need to pay the deductible first.


The final deal is more likely going to be something like:

• No Lottery Protection: 2018 1st round pick
  
  
• With Lottery Protection: 2018 1st round pick (not top 3) & 2018 4th round pick OR (if 2018 1st rounder is top 3), 2019 1st round pick & 2018 2nd round pick.

In the case of the Hamonic trade, it already included 2 second round picks, so you have to wonder what the increased compensation would have been if the 2018 first rounder did end up being a top-3 pick?

You also have to take into account that if you lottery protect a pick, you'll definitely lose the following year's pick with no protection. While it's hard to predict your standing a year in advance, it's even harder to predict it two years out.

[Geeoff]

I think Brad trades away too many picks. Most of the team is made of players drafted by the Flames.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

I think Brad trades away too many picks. Most of the team is made of players drafted by the Flames.

Have to keep in mind he went into the 2015 and 2016 drafts with nine picks in each.

In 2015 he turned the excess into Hamilton.
In 2016 he used them all to select players (Tkachuk, Parsons, Dube, Fox, Lindstrom, Tuulola, Phillips)

This isn't an every year occurrence.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

rebounds? he had a better season this year than last. this is travis hamonic.

Hanmonic was coming off a worse season than Brodie has ever had. The trade package that the Flames gave totally discounted his bad year.

If other GMs are willing to overlook an off year then Brodie should bring back a top-10 draft pick and a good prospect or a late first and couple of young roster players.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

This is by far his worst season, last year he played injured for at least 10 games and missed 33 more and still had more points than this year.

Get him a new coach and a new partner and see what happens

I'm just saying he got relatively the same results this season as he has had the 2 seasons prior, even factoring in his injuries. He was even slightly better this season.

[smiggy77]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Well. get ready for more of it. Because the casual fans are about to lift up their pitch forks and torches.

Even the Radio guys now are getting into the criticism.

Fact is, Treliving put too much pressure on the team with this trade. and it backfired. End of the day the trade is done, Hamonic is a Flame and thats that. Fine.

But it is more than fair to be critical on not protecting the first round pick in case this backfired. It wasn't and now there's a chance we will miss out on a Svechnikov, or McLeod, or a Zadina. Which is what the Flames were sorely needing....more offense!

Now the only ammo the Flames have is main roster players. If Treliving goes out and dumps a bunch of prospects while having limited picks in the next two years, it should be considered a monumental blunder. For years Sutter spend all his picks and prospects on trying to round out the roster, it didn't work then and its not gonna work now.

Think of the Bouwmeester cycle, its repeating itself.

The difference is that Sutter could never win a trade, where as Brad generally wins them. Also in order to fill the cupboard, he still makes moves to add in those depth guys and signs college players.

[smiggy77]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Based on his play this year, yes. Hopefully he rebounds next season.

He's still a full time NHL top 4 dman. You wouldn't know how long, or if, the draft pick would develop. Look at the 2013 first rounders we have that haven't developed into what we wanted them to (Lazar, Poirier, and Klimchuk).

It's a gamble on both ends.

[CsInMyBlood]

Travis Hamonic is totally underwhelming. Like a poor mans Cory Sarich. I like the person that Travis is, but not the player.

People love to blame Brodie for that pairing, but Hamonic was a huge reason for its failures. At least TJ has a risk/reward aspect to his game. How many freaking times this season that he fired a slapshot from the point only to miss the net and start the opponents transition up the ice is insane. So many battles lost on the boards. So many missed assignments in front of the net. Just standing somewhere not involved in anyway. So many brutal giveaways. So many times screening Smith. How many shots deflected off of him into the net this season? Really wish there was a stat for that because there were a lot of them.

I'd try to trade Hamonic before Brodie or Hamilton. Travis Hamonic is not going to help this team win games unless something drastically turns around in his play. I just don't see it happening at all.

So overrated. Huge overpayment. Huge disappointment.

[Red_Baron]

At the time of the trade, we were a playoff team that looked like it was a year away from becoming a very good hockey team.
There was not much talk about not lottery protecting that pick at the time, there was some but it was easy to dismiss it due to the appearance of the team on paper.

Back to the OP, if I was a GM in that position with a young playoff team that didn't have any statistical outliers that suggested that the team was being propped up by 1 or 2 players having unsustainable statistics, I would have made that trade as it was rather than adding the 4th round pick.

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by TheSkinner

Wideman would have had more points. Could have re-signed him

No, Hamonic >>>> Wideman by 1000 miles even if Wideman used his slapshot on one powerplay this year.

It's unfortunate that Tre overpaid for a stay-at-home D-man. Stay-at-home D-men are a dime a dozen and shouldn't cost all that much. Stay-at-home D-man like Regehr is a different story because the guy can and will nail you to the boards anytime you enter his zone. But I think going forward, the Flames have depth in the defensive positions. Tre needs to get rid of some left-handed baggage up front to fill almost non-existent right-handed right wing positions. Whatever Tre does better not be adding more depth for another goalie or another d-man if he's learned anything from this past few seasons and from what D Sutter had done previously. I always feel it's better to load up on scoring forwards to score at will rather than try to defend and lost by one goal to be come a bubble team all the time.