Should we adjust our expectations for this team?

[Beninho]

One of the biggest reasons to why this team hasn’t been pushed towards elite status in my opinion is the lack of progression of Sam Bennett. This team is lacking consistent secondary scoring from everyone not named Tkachuk and Bennett was pegged as a guy who would be able to get 50 plus points sooner rather than later. Bennett was chosen as the no.4 pick in a draft where some great players were drafted after him who have already gone on to become stars in the league, the Flames got very lucky with Tkachuk but I have believed for some time now that Bennett could be a big miss. This team very much needs Bennett to start progressing into a consistent scorer or find someone else who can provide the offense he was supposed to be producing at this stage of his career. It’s year 4 with Bennett and he’s regressed every year. Very worrying in my opinion

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

You should have done this with points per 60 minutes, not points per game. Some guys are being used more. Some are being used less or in different roles. Hamilton, I would argue, is not being used anywhere near enough - at evens or on the power play.

[direwolf]

I said this in the PGT, but I'll say it here too. If the Flames had even an average PP, they'd very likely be battling it out with Vegas for 1st in the Pacific right now.

Aside from that, I would argue that this is most definitely a playoff-caliber team. The defence has been stellar lately, allowing only 2 goals or less/game over the past month. The goaltending from both guys has been excellent. Their 5 on 5 play has been solid, and the PK has vastly improved from where it was early in the year.

Fix the PP and this team will be deadly.

[Vinny01]

The moves they made in the summer told the fan base they expect more than being a wildcard team this year. If you were to tell me at the end of last season the Flames would add Hamonic to the blueline while keeping everyone else including Stone, get elite goaltending all season, have Monahan/Gaudreau on pace for career seasons, have Tkachuk take a step, Ferland on pace for 30, Backlund/Tkachuk still very reliable, and we sign Jagr. My expectations would be top 5 team in the league

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Beninho

One of the biggest reasons to why this team hasn’t been pushed towards elite status in my opinion is the lack of progression of Sam Bennett. This team is lacking consistent secondary scoring from everyone not named Tkachuk and Bennett was pegged as a guy who would be able to get 50 plus points sooner rather than later. Bennett was chosen as the no.4 pick in a draft where some great players were drafted after him who have already gone on to become stars in the league, the Flames got very lucky with Tkachuk but I have believed for some time now that Bennett could be a big miss. This team very much needs Bennett to start progressing into a consistent scorer or find someone else who can provide the offense he was supposed to be producing at this stage of his career. It’s year 4 with Bennett and he’s regressed every year. Very worrying in my opinion

While I agree with Bennett not playing as well as we've wanted, I would say that Jankowski should be healing those wounds.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

While I agree with Bennett not playing as well as we've wanted, I would say that Jankowski should be healing those wounds.

True, while I’ve been very happy with Janko’s play he’s still producing like a 3rd liner and still needs a lot of progression but he also wasn’t chosen with the 4th pick in the draft. If this team didn’t luck out with Tkachuk I believe Bennett’s woes would be much more talked about. He was supposed to be the future of this team but I’m just not seeing any progression. With Janko there has been a constant progression just like many of the flames other young players. Bennett has never looked confident in a flames uniform for long stretches and constantly plays like he’s trying not to make a mistake and overthinking everything. People like to compare Bennett with Backlund but I highly doubt the Flames pick Bennett if they knew it would take him 6 seasons to start producing at a second line level, hell we don’t even know if he will ever be a second line player.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

You should have done this with points per 60 minutes, not points per game. Some guys are being used more. Some are being used less or in different roles. Hamilton, I would argue, is not being used anywhere near enough - at evens or on the power play.

I don't consider points/60 mins to be an especially useful statistic for the simple reason that most players's production does not remain consistent with an increase in ice time.

[Robbob]

Secondary scoring is a huge issue for this team. I can think of 6 games off the top of my head where they either left a point because they failed to capitalize on their chances even though they outplayed their opponents..

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Secondary scoring is a huge issue for this team. I can think of 6 games off the top of my head where they either left a point because they failed to capitalize on their chances even though they outplayed their opponents..

How many times this year would a PP goal have won it for them? And not only did they not get it, but the PP turned momentum the other way?

[Flash Walken]

How many teams in the top 10 in 5-5 scoring have a PP in the bottom 10 in the league?

How many teams in the bottom 10 in 5-5 scoring have a PP in the top 10?

[Enoch Root]

The problem with going down the list player by player is that it is a team game, and teams rarely equal the sum of their parts. Plus, simply saying this player has more (or less) points than last year, ignores the role they are playing as well as their linemates.

If we look at the 1st line, I think we all expected it to be better than last year, with Gaudreau and Monahan both a year older and coming off, if not bad years, years with slow starts. Plus the expectation was that Ferland should be a big improvement on Chiasson.

The 2nd line, I think it's safe to say, people expected to be the same, or maybe not quite as awesome as last year, but close.

The 3rd line was a mixed bag, but that usually included Bennett and Brouwer. And it never really gained much traction. Even without any kind of high hopes, I think it was fair to be optimistic that this year would be better.

The 4th line wasn't that bad last year, especially when Hathaway was in the lineup. But there was no reason to think we wouldn't get at least as much out of this year's iteration.

The D was upgraded substantially. Adding Hamonic to the middle pair, made them, on paper, a 1st pairing lite. And bringing Stone back meant an improvement on the 3rd pairing.

And then there was the goaltending. Certainly not everyone had faith in Smith, but even his detractors had to feel that things would be better than last year.

Looking at it from an age perspective, most of the key players are young, and there was plenty of reason to expect some progression in varying degrees, from Gaudreau, Monahan, Ferland, Bennett, Tkachuk, Brodie, Hamilton, and Hamonic. Plus Jankowski was looking to crack the lineup.

Last year we had the slow start, due to the new coach and system, as well as to the slow starts for Gaudreau and Monahan missing camp. So there was every reason to think that was another negative removed.

Then just as the season was getting started, they added Jagr to the mix. I don't think anyone expected miracles, or the nineties version of Jagr, but there was plenty of reason to think he would inject some talent, and some offensive help, to the lineup.

Looking at it in these terms, there was no reason to think that this year's version of the team wouldn't be better - and possibly significantly better - than last year's.

The media was in general agreement with that, and so was management as well as the coaching staff. I think anyone trying to argue now that they didn't expect this team to better than last year is talking their position, with the benefit of hindsight.

[Karl]

The 4th line has been one of this team's biggest disappointments of the year.

I don't think many would've expected much from them, but they would've expected more than literally next to no offense at all.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

How many teams in the top 10 in 5-5 scoring have a PP in the bottom 10 in the league?

How many teams in the bottom 10 in 5-5 scoring have a PP in the top 10?

not as much correlation as you might think



Correlation of 16.69%

[Enoch Root]

So 4 of the top 10 PPs in the top 3rd and 4 of the top 10 in the bottom 3rd.

I have no idea what the point was, but now I am genuinely curious.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So 4 of the top 10 PPs in the top 3rd and 4 of the top 10 in the bottom 3rd.

I have no idea what the point was, but now I am genuinely curious.

Trying to figure out if it is reasonable to expect a team that struggles to score 5-5 to be a top offensive team with the man advantage.

Maybe there is something to the powerplay system being terrible. I personally feel it is the lack of passing ability that is hurting the powerplay rather than a lack of finishers.

I really don't like Brodie getting heavier PP minutes than Hamilton, and now that I type that, I don't even know if it's empirically true, but it sure seems like it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Trying to figure out if it is reasonable to expect a team that struggles to score 5-5 to be a top offensive team with the man advantage.

Maybe there is something to the powerplay system being terrible. I personally feel it is the lack of passing ability that is hurting the powerplay rather than a lack of finishers.

I really don't like Brodie getting heavier PP minutes than Hamilton, and now that I type that, I don't even know if it's empirically true, but it sure seems like it.

I don't think it's a lack of passing ability so much as it is that they are too stationary. Chicken and egg maybe though.

And yes, Brodie has been a big part of the problem IMO. Giordano and/or Hamilton should be getting the ice time (and recently they have been)

[Enoch Root]

As for 5 on 5 scoring, I think the important thing is whether you're outscoring the opposition, not the raw number of goals scored. The Flames have been pretty good 5 on 5 (not great) being a plus 8.

The key, IMO, is opportunistic special teams. The Flames' PK has been awesome of late, which explains much of the improvement in goals against.

But that PP is sucking the life out of them.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As for 5 on 5 scoring, I think the important thing is whether you're outscoring the opposition, not the raw number of goals scored. The Flames have been pretty good 5 on 5 (not great) being a plus 8.

The key, IMO, is opportunistic special teams. The Flames' PK has been awesome of late, which explains much of the improvement in goals against.

But that PP is sucking the life out of them.

I don't agree.

Top 10 Teams in the NHL for points and their corresponding rank ( GF 5-5 )
1 p-Washington (4)
2 x-Pittsburgh (2)
3 z-Chicago (8)
4 x-Columbus (6)
5 x-Minnesota (1)
6 y-Anaheim (17)
7 y-Montréal (13)
8 x-Edmonton (9)
9 x-NY Rangers (7)
10 x-St. Louis (12)

So, only 3 teams finished out of the top 10, and only 1 finished outside top half.

If you want to win in this league you have to score goals, both at even strength and 5-5. Being amazing at one can help compensate for the other, but you absolutely need to be able to score goals at an above average pace in some facet of the game if you want the best chance for success. Calgary proved this last year when their second half powerplay helped them squeak in despite their 20th place finish in 5-5 goals.

Just over halfway through the season, the Flames are about 10 goals back from where they need to be to feel like they are in charge of their own destiny in regards to playoff position. Last year they finished about 20 goals shy. That's in line with where they finished 5-5 as well, about 10 goals shy of the 10th overall Preds. That basically amounts to a second line roster player, or a couple of good 3rd liners, and that's more or less what you see on a game to game basis.

The first PP unit is great, but the 2nd is lacking. They need another Matthew Tkachuk in the lineup if they want to have two functioning offensive units for the PP.


Versteeg had 8 PP goals in just 69 games last year to lead the team. That's basically what is missing off the roster right now.

[Five-hole]

Flash, that's only part of the data. How about with 5V5 goal differential?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

not as much correlation as you might think



Correlation of 16.69%

Based on that the teams in the bottom ten of both categories are:

Buffalo
Arizona
Detroit
Calgary
Ottawa
Florida


Only one of these teams is in a playoffs spot.

I think the Flames are clearly underahieving regardless of their playoff position. This is a core that has some serious firepower yet looks most nights like they would get shutdown by an AHL team.