A statistical look at line combos and D pairings

[Gaskal]

This was a great read. At the very least, the level of quality that I would typically expect of paid columnists.

Plus you have the skill of being able to paint a clearer picture of what's "going on" using statistics, seemingly better than other columnists such as Wilson, Dellow, and even Steinberg.

[Itse]

Nice analysis. I do wonder if the shot quality stats overall might be a bit high overall. It would explain why so many players have trouble finishing at the same time.

On the 3M line, I don't see many good options for Frolik on that line, considering the heavy defensive load, except Ferland.

That said, I also wonder if the 3M line collectively isn't getting a bit frustrated in their role. Frolik especially who gets no PP time. So, Ferland might bring a bit more crash and bang to the 2nd line, while moving Frolik up with Johnny and Moneyhands should give him a much needed offensive boost. Worth a shot I would think, at least as temporary thing. Seems like a fairly low risk move.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by united

Given the Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik trio has a shooting percentage of 4.0% this season, you can see why some think they aren't playing good. But, unless you think the three of them collectively have the shooting accuracy of a lumbering defensive defenseman, you can expect a bit of puck luck to go their way by season's end.

Nitpicking here, but while we'd expect their finishing to improve, we shouldn't expect it to balance out.

As for the OP, it would be nice to show expected goals as a sort of "subtotal".

[eldaczar]

Split up the second line and try Tkachuck on either bennetts lines or Johnnys. They haven't produced like they did last year.

[EldrickOnIce]

Thanks for this - for not saying 'you're stupid' or 'you just don't understand' - and presenting the data with thorough, thoughtful description and visualization. Everyone would be on board with 'advanced metrics' if presented like this.
Bravo sir.

[dolf]

Very interesting, Kovaz! What tools did you use for your analysis? Is there any way to share what you've done? It would be nice to see what you've done and iterate/build on it. E.g. don't know if you have a git repo, Jupyter notebooks or even a Google sheet that could be shared. Thanks!

[PugnaciousIntern]

Ironic timing, as Bart draws in...

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Also I'm open to feedback on the charts, data presented, process, etc.

That's a nice presentation... the only quibble I have is that you don't address Quality of Competition and Zone Starts. Those are really important pieces of context.

[Matty81]

That was a great read. Most I've enjoyed reading a statistical analysis piece on the flames.

Made me think the best way to possibly upgrade the team might be to seek an upgrade on Frolik for a guy who is strong possession wise but a better finisher.

For me Frolik is a career 3rd liner, he peaks at 45 points and that's not good enough for a contending team on the 2nd line let alone one where his centre is serving up chances on a plate. While Backlund and Tkachuk are not huge producers they provide a lot more intangibles and I think are on a higher level than Frolik.

4th line is a tire fire but would be cheap to upgrade at the deadline with some late picks and B prospects if Treliving has the cahones to walk away from Stajan and bench Brouwer.

If the team was a little higher up in the standings I'd suggest going all in for a guy like Mark Stone or another top 6 RW and picking up a couple better 4th liners.

I wonder how much of an upgrade Frolik packaged with a prospect or two from a grouping of Andersson, Valimaki, Mangiapane and Gillies would get the team.

[indes]

Extremely well done sir!

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Matty81

For me Frolik is a career 3rd liner, he peaks at 45 points and that's not good enough for a contending team on the 2nd line let alone one where his centre is serving up chances on a plate.

Lots of people seem to have a hugely inflated idea of 2nd line production. Even the Penguins don't have that kind of 2nd line production, and Malkin is easily the best 2nd line center in the league.

Forwards 90-180 in scoring last season had 50 to 32 points. Having your worst top six guy put up 45 would be amazing.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by Matty81

That was a great read. Most I've enjoyed reading a statistical analysis piece on the flames.

Made me think the best way to possibly upgrade the team might be to seek an upgrade on Frolik for a guy who is strong possession wise but a better finisher.

For me Frolik is a career 3rd liner, he peaks at 45 points and that's not good enough for a contending team on the 2nd line let alone one where his centre is serving up chances on a plate. While Backlund and Tkachuk are not huge producers they provide a lot more intangibles and I think are on a higher level than Frolik.

4th line is a tire fire but would be cheap to upgrade at the deadline with some late picks and B prospects if Treliving has the cahones to walk away from Stajan and bench Brouwer.

If the team was a little higher up in the standings I'd suggest going all in for a guy like Mark Stone or another top 6 RW and picking up a couple better 4th liners.

I wonder how much of an upgrade Frolik packaged with a prospect or two from a grouping of Andersson, Valimaki, Mangiapane and Gillies would get the team.

Considering how well-rounded he is, I don't know that Frolik needs to be replaced, but I agree with you. A player with this skill and all-around ability should be able to do more offensively, and it would be interesting if someone more dynamic fill that RW spot with Chucky and Backlund.

[indes]

Ferland is doing okay, but I wonder if we wouldn't be better off swapping Ferland and
Tkachuk around?

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Itse

Lots of people seem to have a hugely inflated idea of 2nd line production. Even the Penguins don't have that kind of 2nd line production, and Malkin is easily the best 2nd line center in the league.

Forwards 90-180 in scoring last season had 50 to 32 points. Having your worst top six guy put up 45 would be amazing.

I don't think there's any blueprint for how many points you have to get and admittedly I grew up in an earlier era where really top teams were getting 70-80 points out of second liners on many teams.

That said I feel like he is a great player, an amazing possession, defensive and penalty killer but just lacks the offensive finish and offensive creativity a team like the Flames could use to go over the top for a top six role. If the Flames were a shutdown team I think he'd be a better fit there but it seems like the way the team is trending giving up goals and flailing on the powerplay that someone who can contribute a little more offensively would be an upgrade.

Finding that upgrade especially after the Hamonic and Smith trades killing the draft pick base could be pretty much impossible though my pipedream is Stone. Ottawa is going to have a hard time anteing up for a new deal this summer if the noise is correct about them cutting payroll and the Flames could offer a lite version of him in Frolik plus some high end prospects.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Itse

Lots of people seem to have a hugely inflated idea of 2nd line production. Even the Penguins don't have that kind of 2nd line production, and Malkin is easily the best 2nd line center in the league.

Forwards 90-180 in scoring last season had 50 to 32 points. Having your worst top six guy put up 45 would be amazing.

Yup. Hornqvist got 44 points last year. Hossa, Williams, Silvferberg, Eberle - all those guys were probably considered to be the second line RW on their teams and all were in the same range as Frolik (and a bunch of them are way worse defensively).

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Itse

Lots of people seem to have a hugely inflated idea of 2nd line production. Even the Penguins don't have that kind of 2nd line production, and Malkin is easily the best 2nd line center in the league.

Forwards 90-180 in scoring last season had 50 to 32 points. Having your worst top six guy put up 45 would be amazing.

las vegas:

Jonathan Marchessault, C 31
William Karlsson, C 27
James Neal, LW 27
David Perron, LW 27
Reilly Smith, RW 25
Erik Haula, LW 24


Wpg

Blake Wheeler, RW 41
Mark Scheifele, C 37
Patrik Laine, RW 29
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW 28
Bryan Little, C 21
Kyle Connor, LW 19


TB

Nikita Kucherov, RW 50
Steven Stamkos, C 45
Brayden Point, C 31
Vladislav Namestnikov, C 30
Tyler Johnson, C 24
Yanni Gourde, LW 24


LA

Anze Kopitar, C 40
Dustin Brown, RW 29
Tyler Toffoli, C 25
Tanner Pearson, LW 20
Adrian Kempe, RW 18
Trevor Lewis, C 14

St.L

Brayden Schenn, C 40
Jaden Schwartz, LW 35
Vladimir Tarasenko, RW 35
Paul Stastny, C 25
Vladimir Sobotka, C 18
Alexander Steen, LW 17

The big boys (except LA) will all have their worst top 6 with 45 pts...IF they want to stay as big boys

Pittsburgh is not a big boy this year. If they don't turn it around and get a 45 pt 2nd line for the rest of the year they....like the Flames will be a bubble team.

LA and St.L will each have 2 D men over 45 pts.

[Drunk Uncle]

Thanks for this analysis. I chose to use my first post on this site to thank the OP. I've been following this forum for many many years and posts like this are the reason.

What the analysis tells me is that Gulutzan may be able to start giving the 3rd line some harder match-ups while giving the 2nd line some easier minutes.

[jlh2640]

Lazar alot better then I expected

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

Lazar alot better then I expected

I feel like people piling on Lazar are ignoring the kid’s circumstances just like they did with Bennett.

I’m in no way saying he’s anywhere near as good as Bennett, but the fact is players need the right circumstances to succeed in. Doubly so for young, developing players. I have very little doubt that given some competent NHL linemates, CP’s opinion of Lazar would swing quite significantly. I think he’ll end up being a mainstay on the 4th line for years to come.