[News] TSN: Flames lacking offence at RW

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by mdubz

Ferland also had an unsustainable shooting percentage that would not translate to an entire season.

Why is Ferland's shooting percentage unsustainable? Monahan's shooting percentage is not much different at 13.6%. That is actually the lowest shooting percentage of Monahan's career too. I think it is very sustainable and for a very good reason. I like to refer to this as the Gaudreau effect.

[Erick Estrada]

This is not news. I and others here have been saying this for a long time now.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Sometimes people say things that just... give your head a shake. If Ferland's shooting percentage is higher than Monahan's, what do you think is the likelihood that it continues to be that high? Do you think Ferland is a more talented goal scorer, a higher quality shooter, than Sean Monahan is? What are the chances that that's the case?

The NHL average shooting percentage is about 8.5%. How far above average do you think Ferland is as a shooter in the NHL? If you think he's going to score more goals this year than last year, how do you think he's going to do that? Is he going to get more shots on goal than last year? If so, how? Or do you think he's going to continue his upward trend in shooting percentage such that he becomes the next Stamkos?

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I think it is a reasonable to think his shooting percentage will go down, but his shots and goals will go up based on playing on the first line for the full year. The guy has talent.

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Weighted goal predictions going with last three years at 10%, 30%, and 50%
That adds up to 90%. What am I missing?

Iginla.

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Sometimes people say things that just... give your head a shake. If Ferland's shooting percentage is higher than Monahan's, what do you think is the likelihood that it continues to be that high? Do you think Ferland is a more talented goal scorer, a higher quality shooter, than Sean Monahan is? What are the chances that that's the case?

The NHL average shooting percentage is about 8.5%. How far above average do you think Ferland is as a shooter in the NHL? If you think he's going to score more goals this year than last year, how do you think he's going to do that? Is he going to get more shots on goal than last year? If so, how? Or do you think he's going to continue his upward trend in shooting percentage such that he becomes the next Stamkos?

You can’t look at shooting% in a vacuum. You need to take into account the type of player you’re talking about and the role they’re put in.
Tanguay shooting% is ~19%
Ovechkin shooint% is ~12%
Does that mean Tanguay is the better shooter/scorer? Of course not. Ovie regularly shoots upwards of 400shots/season where Tanguay hovers around 100. Obviously shooting% is going to go down when you take more shots.



As for Ferland, regardless of what his shooting% is, I absolutely believe he can score 20+ if put next to Monahan and Gaudreau.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Yeah, you also can't use the single outlier as an attempt to disprove the rule. Tanguay's shooting percentage is much higher than you'd expect because he basically wouldn't shoot unless he had an empty net or a clear, high-percentage scoring chance. He's always been used as the quintessential example of an outlier. And Ovechkin has been used as the example of an outlier the other way, because he'll take literally any shot opportunity he can get. He shoots more than any player ever - 4541 shots in 10.5 NHL seasons.

So your example is pretty obviously flawed, unless you're trying to suggest that Ferland is, like the two players you refer to, an outlier. In which case, okay, but why do you think that? The reasons that Ovechkin and Tanguay are outliers are east to see. Why should the general rule not apply in Ferland's case? What makes him special?

Then we get to your claim - that Ferland can score 20+ next to Monahan and Gaudreau. Okay, maybe you're right. But why do you think that? Do you think he's going to shoot a lot more than he has in the past? Because it would have to be a LOT more. Or do you think he's an elite-level finishing talent?

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Yeah, you also can't use the single outlier as an attempt to disprove the rule. Tanguay's shooting percentage is much higher than you'd expect because he basically wouldn't shoot unless he had an empty net or a clear, high-percentage scoring chance. He's always been used as the quintessential example of an outlier. And Ovechkin has been used as the example of an outlier the other way, because he'll take literally any shot opportunity he can get. He shoots more than any player ever - 4541 shots in 10.5 NHL seasons.

So your example is pretty obviously flawed, unless you're trying to suggest that Ferland is, like the two players you refer to, an outlier. In which case, okay, but why do you think that? The reasons that Ovechkin and Tanguay are outliers are east to see. Why should the general rule not apply in Ferland's case? What makes him special?

Then we get to your claim - that Ferland can score 20+ next to Monahan and Gaudreau. Okay, maybe you're right. But why do you think that? Do you think he's going to shoot a lot more than he has in the past? Because it would have to be a LOT more. Or do you think he's an elite-level finishing talent?

So the alternative is to look at single stats in a vacuum? All i'm saying is that you can't take a look at a single stat to gauge how well or poorly a player will do.

As for Ferland, he's going to score more because he's going to be playing with better players....pretty simple right?

[mdubz]

Originally Posted by New Era

Why is Ferland's shooting percentage unsustainable? Monahan's shooting percentage is not much different at 13.6%. That is actually the lowest shooting percentage of Monahan's career too. I think it is very sustainable and for a very good reason. I like to refer to this as the Gaudreau effect.

Mainly referring to his shooting percentage after joining the top line for the remaining 1/4 of the season, which was 24%.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Sometimes people say things that just... give your head a shake. If Ferland's shooting percentage is higher than Monahan's, what do you think is the likelihood that it continues to be that high? Do you think Ferland is a more talented goal scorer, a higher quality shooter, than Sean Monahan is? What are the chances that that's the case?



The NHL average shooting percentage is about 8.5%. How far above average do you think Ferland is as a shooter in the NHL? If you think he's going to score more goals this year than last year, how do you think he's going to do that? Is he going to get more shots on goal than last year? If so, how? Or do you think he's going to continue his upward trend in shooting percentage such that he becomes the next Stamkos?

He will get more minutes on the first line, plus more PP time, possibly a lot more. So yes, more shots

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

^I would say that a significant increase in PP time per game on the first unit is probably the best way for him to score goals, as a net front presence. But I'm not even sure I want him in that role, to be honest.

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

So the alternative is to look at single stats in a vacuum? All i'm saying is that you can't take a look at a single stat to gauge how well or poorly a player will do.

Literally the opposite. I said exactly the opposite of "look at stats in a vacuum". I asked you why you think he's going to score at the rate you seem to think he'll score. Give me some reason for thinking that.

As for Ferland, he's going to score more because he's going to be playing with better players....pretty simple right?

You don't just put a guy on a line with good players and suddenly more goals happen. If more goals happen, it's either because he's now getting more shots, or more of his shots are going in the net. There's only two options here.

If you think more of his shots are going to go in, why? He was already at a ridiculous shooting rate last year, higher than Monahan's, and only scored 15 goals. Now you say you think he'll score 20+. Do you think he's a better shooter than Monahan, and likely to get even better, up into Marchand or Stamkos territory? Because if so, I do not share your opinion of Ferland's offensive talent. I think he's maybe a slightly above average shooter if he avoids trying to shoot from distance and focuses on banging in loose pucks, but maybe I've missed something.

Do you think he's going get to shoot far more often than last year? First, do you want him to be the guy on that line taking shots, as opposed to Gaudreau or Monahan? Second, if you do and you think he'll be able to up his shot count, by how much? Even assuming his shooting percentage stays static (which for the above reasons seems unlikely), his shot rate per game would need to go up a huge amount year over year. What makes you think that will happen?

Seriously, this actually requires at least some reasoning. I'm not even saying you're wrong, I'm just asking what your basis is for believing what you say you believe.

[GranteedEV]

Ferland had 13 (5-on-5) Goals contrasted with 9.8 iXG (individual expected goals).

While that does point to some luck, I'd argue that he probably would have generated some rebound assists or just other assists if he scored less goals... his stat line as his SH% skyrocketed became increasingly Cy Young-esque.

How does that compare with the rest of the Roster?
Monahan had 18 goals compared to 16.1 iXG
Frolik had 12 goals compared to 14.2 iXG
Backlund had 15 goals compared to 13.0 iXG
Tkachuk had 10 goals compared to 12.4 iXG
Bennett had 9 goals compared to 11.0 ixG
Gaudreau had 14 goals compared to 10.9 iXG
Chiasson had 11 goals compared to 8.3 iXG
Hamilton had 11 goals compared to 7.2 iXG
Brouwer had 7 goals comapred to 6.0 iXG
Bouma had 3 goals compared to 4.6 iXG


In general, Ferland' deviation from his expected goals was nothing to write a book report about. Dougie Hamilton is probably last year's biggest "outlier", not Ferland. The fact that Ferland had nearly 10 iXG with ice time lagging well behind his teammates is a good sign. He was expected to score goals when on the ice... and he did. Last year's luck probably offset his miserable luck in 2015-16. A regression to the mean should still produce sustainable scoring from him.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

^I would say that a significant increase in PP time per game on the first unit is probably the best way for him to score goals, as a net front presence. But I'm not even sure I want him in that role, to be honest.

Literally the opposite. I said exactly the opposite of "look at stats in a vacuum". I asked you why you think he's going to score at the rate you seem to think he'll score. Give me some reason for thinking that.

You don't just put a guy on a line with good players and suddenly more goals happen. If more goals happen, it's either because he's now getting more shots, or more of his shots are going in the net. There's only two options here.

If you think more of his shots are going to go in, why? He was already at a ridiculous shooting rate last year, higher than Monahan's, and only scored 15 goals. Now you say you think he'll score 20+. Do you think he's a better shooter than Monahan, and likely to get even better, up into Marchand or Stamkos territory? Because if so, I do not share your opinion of Ferland's offensive talent. I think he's maybe a slightly above average shooter if he avoids trying to shoot from distance and focuses on banging in loose pucks, but maybe I've missed something.

Do you think he's going get to shoot far more often than last year? First, do you want him to be the guy on that line taking shots, as opposed to Gaudreau or Monahan? Second, if you do and you think he'll be able to up his shot count, by how much? Even assuming his shooting percentage stays static (which for the above reasons seems unlikely), his shot rate per game would need to go up a huge amount year over year. What makes you think that will happen?

Seriously, this actually requires at least some reasoning. I'm not even saying you're wrong, I'm just asking what your basis is for believing what you say you believe.

For me the goals increase will be from a result of better linemates + a lot more shots. Last season he had 106 shots which is less that the year before of 122 with 5 more games played. For the season he only averaged just over 11 minutes of ice-time. Staying on the first line all season (which is an assumption to get 20+ goals) he should be looking at a 40% increase in icetime to the 14-15 min range. I'd say that should get him an extra 40-50 shots alone. Add in that the first line is more offense focused than say the fourth line. Instead of focusing on dumping, protection and energy his job will now be scoring, that I think should add another 20 or so shots.

As a trigger-man on that line with Monahan I expect 170-180 shots from him over the season. Which yes, is almost double his production last year, but I think that his new role will allow for it. I can see a drop in shooting %, but when you look at players who score over 20 goals a year, low teens isn't unheard of depending on their style. Last year he seemed more like a player that waited for his shot instead of constantly just putting pucks on net like the year before.

So 14.5 mins of icetime, around 180 shots and a drop to 12-13% shooting should give him just over 20 goals. I see Ferland as a players who is still in his growth curve and last year was more indicative of what he is able to do.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Well, there's a lot of that I would consider overly optimistic, but at least it's a reasonable case for first line Ferland.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by belsarius

For me the goals increase will be from a result of better linemates + a lot more shots. Last season he had 106 shots which is less that the year before of 122 with 5 more games played. For the season he only averaged just over 11 minutes of ice-time. Staying on the first line all season (which is an assumption to get 20+ goals) he should be looking at a 40% increase in icetime to the 14-15 min range. I'd say that should get him an extra 40-50 shots alone. Add in that the first line is more offense focused than say the fourth line. Instead of focusing on dumping, protection and energy his job will now be scoring, that I think should add another 20 or so shots.

As a trigger-man on that line with Monahan I expect 170-180 shots from him over the season. Which yes, is almost double his production last year, but I think that his new role will allow for it. I can see a drop in shooting %, but when you look at players who score over 20 goals a year, low teens isn't unheard of depending on their style. Last year he seemed more like a player that waited for his shot instead of constantly just putting pucks on net like the year before.

So 14.5 mins of icetime, around 180 shots and a drop to 12-13% shooting should give him just over 20 goals. I see Ferland as a players who is still in his growth curve and last year was more indicative of what he is able to do.

If Ferland can approach 180 shots, I think he gets there. He has a good shot, there should be rebound opportunities, there should be better offensive zone starts. There may be plenty of garbage goals in the mix, but they all count. If there is any PP time included, I think he makes it to 20.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by New Era

Why is Ferland's shooting percentage unsustainable? Monahan's shooting percentage is not much different at 13.6%. That is actually the lowest shooting percentage of Monahan's career too. I think it is very sustainable and for a very good reason. I like to refer to this as the Gaudreau effect.

Looks like we are almost all in agreement, Ferland is exactly what the first line needs. An assertive player that likes to shoot and isn't afraid of getting dirty.

belsarius' numbers are spot on. If Ferland plays hard consistently he gives the Flames something they want on the first line and I think he gets that ice time and by extension the good results.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by mdubz

Mainly referring to his shooting percentage after joining the top line for the remaining 1/4 of the season, which was 24%.

That I would agree with. I expect the shooting percentage to drop, but his number of shots to also increase. Ferland will score 20+ goals this year but still maintain a double digit shooting percentage. The Gaudreau Effect will rule here.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

The Flames haven't had a credible #1 or #2 RW in years.

Oh C'mon. You can argue that Hudler was not the ideal #1 RW, but he was clearly at least a #2. He led the team in scoring in 2014/15 by a significant margin.

Frolik was also 30th in points among RWs last season. He's produced at an extremely consistent pace over the last 4 seasons. He is clearly a credible #2 RW.

The Flames are missing a bonafide #1 RW. That being said, there isn't a team in the league that doesn't have a hole somewhere. No team has a credible player at each and every position. Every team has a plug somewhere.