[CP Story] Third Line Woes

[Sandman]

Good article. I strongly believe that Bennett has star potential, and is not being used correctly. We didn't draft him 4th overall to play with players like Brouwer, that will drag him down.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy

Great article. The fear of Brouwer dragging down Bennett for another year is real and I would rather start the year with Brouwer having to work his way back up the lineup than with Bennett (ie. Fourth line).

Where I'm torn, and where I hope Gulutzen is bold enough to experiment, is to graduate Tkachuk from being the third wheel with Backlund and Frolik to being paired with Bennett. It creates balance, opens up a slot on that second line for someone else to learn the ropes (I have Lazar's defense in mind) and allows Tkachuk and Bennett to take their next steps.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Ferland
Lazar - Backlund - Frolik
Tkachuk - Bennett - Versteeg
Stajan - Jankowski - Brouwer
Hathaway - Hamilton

One hundred percent agree with this approach!

Lazar has spoken multiple times that his problem is confidence. Lazar is defensively strong so should be able to thrive in a shutdown/checking line role against best opposition. Backlund will raise Lazar's numbers like he has done repeatedly in the past with Bouma, Bennett and Tkachuk.

Versteeg and Tkachuk would be perfect for Bennett!

Come on Gully make it happen!

If Brouwer has turned the corner let him prove it by displacing Versteeg on 3rd line over time.

Jankowski becomes an interesting alternative later on once he has had some time to adjust to NHL in a 4C role and it is clear he has more to give offensively for him to be limited by 4th line minutes.

[killer_carlson]

I think everyone can agree that Brouwer's the biggest question mark on that 3rd line. My question is how long do we let the line stick together before we mix things up?

3 Games?
5 games?
10 games?
20 games?

[ricardodw]

as much as it would be great if Ferland was somehow being able to step up to his 2015 playoff version or even follow the path of Maroon and learn to play with elite players.

Monahan-Gaudreau-Hudler >>> Monahan-Gaudreau-Ferland

Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik is pretty much comparable to Monahan-Gaudreau-Ferland

Whole bunch of reasons why Monahan and Gaudreau took a step backward last season, or at the very best did not improve.....but it is kind of obvious that having someone who does not generate any where close to top-9 scoring on his own has to be near the top of the list.

When the Flames signed Brouwer I certainly thought he was slotted to play on the top line. His top linemates in St.l Were Statsny, Backes and Fabbri almost all C's

It seems that to get balance Brouwer was expected to carry a line by himself. Really didn't work.

Ferland-Bennett-Versteeg is not going to be a great development line for Bennett... Ferland is a 3rd/4th line player

Some will say that Gaudreau-Monahan got it going when Ferland was put on their line..... So maybe Ferland is nominally better than Chaisson who the flames did not want as a 4th liner.

[FBI]

"Maybe Ferland is nominally better than Chaisson"

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

as much as it would be great if Ferland was somehow being able to step up to his 2015 playoff version or even follow the path of Maroon and learn to play with elite players.

Monahan-Gaudreau-Hudler >>> Monahan-Gaudreau-Ferland

Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik is pretty much comparable to Monahan-Gaudreau-Ferland

Whole bunch of reasons why Monahan and Gaudreau took a step backward last season, or at the very best did not improve.....but it is kind of obvious that having someone who does not generate any where close to top-9 scoring on his own has to be near the top of the list.

When the Flames signed Brouwer I certainly thought he was slotted to play on the top line. His top linemates in St.l Were Statsny, Backes and Fabbri almost all C's

It seems that to get balance Brouwer was expected to carry a line by himself. Really didn't work.

Ferland-Bennett-Versteeg is not going to be a great development line for Bennett... Ferland is a 3rd/4th line player

Some will say that Gaudreau-Monahan got it going when Ferland was put on their line..... So maybe Ferland is nominally better than Chaisson who the flames did not want as a 4th liner.

Completely disagree with your evaluation of Ferland.

I see a player who is just learning what he is capable of and that the guys with him can more than keep up. I see skill vision skating and one of the best two shots on the team. Nevermind the physical component.

Project last year's numbers after he moved to the top line you have a fifty point player with more than twenty goals.

In a cap world what are you expecting to have in his place?

[Fire]

For someone who created the GRIT index you would think he'd be a bigger fan of Ferland.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Good article. I strongly believe that Bennett has star potential, and is not being used correctly. We didn't draft him 4th overall to play with players like Brouwer, that will drag him down.

On the flip side, if Bennett is a star, I do think he can learn to carry a line even with guys like Brouwer.

Last season I think five things cascaded for Bennett:
1) Being taken off the power play hurt his confidence
2) A coaching change caused him to play more of a dump and chase/cycle game which is tough for any underdeveloped 20YO
3) His first year playing exclusively center, there were some growing pains just playing instinctually
4) He had to carry some offensively bad defense pairs playing overly conservative. Even Brodie struggles most of the season.
5) Troy Brouwer was below replacement level

I think Gulutzan can address each one individually:

1) Gully shows some darn faith in Sam Bennett. He isn't hurting your PP and has good chemistry with Backs and Tkachuk. He's less important than Frolik for that role because you are grooming him to be a point producer.
2) Year 2 under Gully and a year bigger faster stronger for Bennett
3) Second year playing center. Looked amazing in the final few games + playoffs + has been PreseasonCrosby
4) Hamonic opens up Brodie's game and Kulak - Stone adds some offense and offensive zone time to pair 3
5) Even Brouwer couldn't be as bad as he was last.... could he?

[AC]

It's funny how little respect Ferland still gets by many.

Then at the same time, you hear Treliving, Gulutzan, or several Flames like Johnny come out and say Ferland has the best shot on the team. Regardless, I think he meshed well with Johnny and Mono last year and adds an extremely unique dynamic to the team in general, and to the top line specifically.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by AC

It's funny how little respect Ferland still gets by many.

Then at the same time, you hear Treliving, Gulutzan, or several Flames like Johnny come out and say Ferland has the best shot on the team. Regardless, I think he meshed well with Johnny and Mono last year and adds an extremely unique dynamic to the team in general, and to the top line specifically.

He has 48 points in 173 career games

Does that sound like a top line RW of a contending team? I think some just think he belongs lower in the lineup

"best shot on the team" career high 15 goals

[AC]

Ferland's been improving year after year. Not sure why anybody would assume he is what he is at this point.

Originally Posted by dino7c

"best shot on the team" career high 15 goals

And yet, as mentioned, it's a consistent opinion from his teammates, his coach, and his GM.

[Itse]

I'm not saying there's no potential there, but I think it's fair to point out that Ferland doesn't have the numbers yet to prove he belongs on the first line.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Itse

I'm not saying there's no potential there, but I think it's fair to point out that Ferland doesn't have the numbers yet to prove he belongs on the first line.

that is pretty much it right there...I hope he puts up 50 or 60 points (even that would be just barely top line winger numbers) but I am skeptical because he hasn't been a consistently good offensive player anytime in his NHL career save for a couple weeks.

This team shouldn't be a bubble team, expectations are higher...trading all your top draft picks to be a bubble team lol? If the Flames are a wild card team and get swept in the first round again you might as well blow it up. Ferland either needs to step up (should he get the chance) or go back to a 3rd line role

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dino7c

He has 48 points in 173 career games

Does that sound like a top line RW of a contending team? I think some just think he belongs lower in the lineup

He doesn't have points because he's never played up the lineup. You've effectively created a never ending loop whereby a player who starts their career at the bottom of the lineup which hurts their ability to produce points should never move up the lineup because they "belong lower in the lineup because they've never produced points."

Points rates are useful, and for two straight years Ferland has played fourth line minutes and produced what essentially amounts to 2nd liner point rates. A good indicator that he should play up the lineup.

"best shot on the team" career high 15 goals

Ever heard of this thing called ice time? How does one score goals when they're not on the ice?

Over the last two seasons these are our top single season minute-for-minute goal scorers (70+ GP):

2015-16 Sean Monahan - 1.07 Goals /60
2015-16 John Gaudreau - 0.96 Goals /60
2016-17 Micheal Ferland - 0.95 Goals /60
2015-16 Sam Bennett - 0.92 Goals /60
2015-16 Joe Colborne - 0.90 Goals /60
2016-17 Sean Monahan - 0.79 Goals /60
2016-17 Mikael Backlund - 0.78 Goals /60
2015-16 Mikael Backlund - 0.74 Goals /60

Unless you want to argue that, like Colborne, every goal Ferland scored was a flukey bank off his torso, this is clearly good company Ferland's in. The fact that Colborne didn't even get qualified as an RFA and Ferland got a multi-year contract is enough reason to think they're not in the same class. Not that one should need to appeal to authority to realize that.

[AC]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Ferland either needs to step up (should he get the chance) or go back to a 3rd line role

Yeah, I think this is the best way to look at his top line assignment.

If he can produce, great. If he looks out of his element, drop him back down.

Many "elite" teams succeed by using 1 or 2 elite players to boost some otherwise bottom 6 players. See Crosby playing with 2 kids that hadn't produced much previously, Kane is slotted with DeBrincat and Schmaltz, McDavid turning pumpkins into top line players, etc.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

He doesn't have points because he's never played up the lineup. You've effectively created a never ending loop whereby a player who starts their career at the bottom of the lineup should never move up the lineup.



Ever heard of this thing called ice time? How does one score goals when they're not on the ice?

Over the last two seasons these are our top single season minute-for-minute goal scorers (70+ GP):

2015-16 Sean Monahan - 1.07 Goals /60
2015-16 John Gaudreau - 0.96 Goals /60
2016-17 Micheal Ferland - 0.95 Goals /60
2015-16 Sam Bennett - 0.92 Goals /60
2015-16 Joe Colborne - 0.90 Goals /60
2016-17 Sean Monahan - 0.79 Goals /60
2016-17 Mikael Backlund - 0.78 Goals /60
2015-16 Mikael Backlund - 0.74 Goals /60

Unless you want to argue that, like Colborne, every goal Ferland scored was a flukey bank off his torso, this is clearly good company Ferland's in. The fact that Colborne didn't even get qualified as an RFA and Ferland got a multi-year contract is enough reason to think they're not in the same class.

The "argument" if you want to call it that is that Ferland isn't a top line RWer on a cup contender. I don't think he is, I am willing to bet that most around the league don't. Would be ecstatic if he scored 25-30 goals this season and proved me wrong but we shall see.

My guess is that the Flames will be looking for someone to fill that role all year long

[Flamefan1]

The vast majority of posters on this site and for that matter Flames fans recognize the value Ferland adds major value to the Monahan, Gaudreau line. If that line is kept together for the majority of this season Ferlands on ice performance will prove these few doubters wrong. It seems to be only a few posters including Ricardo, FBI and Dino7c, but they just happen to express their negativity towards Ferland often. Ferland has been mismanaged by a few coaches and as a result has fewer points than he should have. Johny will be able to play his game with Ferland on his line and IMO will be at or above a point per game.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by AC

Yeah, I think this is the best way to look at his top line assignment.

If he can produce, great. If he looks out of his element, drop him back down.

Many "elite" teams succeed by using 1 or 2 elite players to boost some otherwise bottom 6 players. See Crosby playing with 2 kids that hadn't produced much previously, Kane is slotted with DeBrincat and Schmaltz, McDavid turning pumpkins into top line players, etc.

Calgary doesn't have a Crosby, McDavid, or Kane caliber player to carry other guys though...Whoever is on the top line needs to carry their weight

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The "argument" if you want to call it that is that Ferland isn't a top line RWer on a cup contender. I don't think he is, I am willing to bet that most around the league don't. Would be ecstatic if he scored 25-30 goals this season and proved me wrong but we shall see.

My guess is that the Flames will be looking for someone to fill that role all year long

There are two elements to a so-called top line RWer

1) Top PP Unit
2) Top 5-on-5 Unit

If Ferland does not play top PP unit, then he is not being used as "a top line RWer". He is only playing half that role. It's true that if he replaces Brouwer on PP1 (as he has in preseason) he could increase his production into that 25-30 range. But let's assume he doesn't.

If Ferland pots 18 5-on-5 goals (he was on pace for 27 with Johnny/Monny though) and Versteeg pots 8 PP goals (he gave us 8 in only 69 games last year plus another in the playoffs) then you have 26 goals produced from the two "roles" that a top line right winger handles. Then if Ferland adds, oh, 3 PP goals (he had 2 PP goals with virtually no PP time last year) and Versteeg adds 12 (which is a shade below his career ES goal scoring pace) 5 on 5 goals, your "functional 3RW" has given you 15 goals.

Just because these roles are being split between two different players, doesn't mean you've "lost" any goals.

Fixating on raw point totals is highly flawed from a team evaluation perspective.

You have to look at who's producing when they're on the ice. You can't fault guys for not producing when they're not on the ice.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Flamefan1

The vast majority of posters on this site and for that matter Flames fans recognize the value Ferland adds major value to the Monahan, Gaudreau line. If that line is kept together for the majority of this season Ferlands on ice performance will prove these few doubters wrong. It seems to be only a few posters including Ricardo, FBI and Dino7c, but they just happen to express their negativity towards Ferland often. Ferland has been mismanaged by a few coaches and as a result has fewer points than he should have. Johny will be able to play his game with Ferland on his line and IMO will be at or above a point per game.

Saying a guy isn't a first liner isn't being a doubter. Mismanaged by a few coaches? Fewer points than he should have? The guy was a fifth round draft pick, the fact that he is a quality NHLer is better than expected already.

I really like the player, think that role is over his head...