Working on a story ... pick me 5 cup contenders for this year

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Why so few people taking the Sharks? They were just in the finals and haven't suffered any losses to their team?

I've made this point a number of times this summer, but the Sharks' core is largely in its twilight, and the team was the beneficiary of a lot of good fortune last year. Historically speaking (and somewhat contrary to expectation) teams that undergo a coaching change will also often experience an immediate, significant boost in performance. Add to this another boost supplied by the addition of a new goalie who had a great season, and I don't think the Sharks are any better this year than they were last year, and last year they were the #3 team in a pretty underwhelming Pacific Division. The division as a whole should be much more competitive, and I think the Sharks are a bubble team this year as a result.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Weitz

They are old?

I think I picked them though.

Yeah but their old guys are depth guys. And Thorton is still a star player even at his age, but Marleau isn't the guy he once was. However, they have Pavelski, Couture, Donskoi, Hertl, Boedker, Ward and Wingles all in the top 9 that aren't "old" guys

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Yeah but their old guys are depth guys. And Thorton is still a star player even at his age, but Marleau isn't the guy he once was. However, they have Pavelski, Couture, Donskoi, Hertl, Boedker, Ward and Wingles all in the top 9 that aren't "old" guys

Outside of Pavelski and Couture, none of those guys are top six forwards in my book.

[The Professor]

This is a fun exercise.

I'm a sucker for not picking the ones everyone else is picking. Always root for the under dog. No Hawks, no California teams.

I picked
Nashville
Dallas
Pittsburgh (not an underdog)
Washington
Tampa

[Enoch Root]

Yeah, the Sharks had a good run, and everything came together nicely for them last year, but there is no way I would list them among the 5 teams most likely to make the cup finals this season.

I think they'll finish 3rd or 4th in the division this year.

[Drake]

Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay
Washington
Chicago
Dallas

[The Professor]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I've made this point a number of times this summer, but the Sharks' core is largely in its twilight, and the team was the beneficiary of a lot of good fortune last year. Historically speaking (and somewhat contrary to expectation) teams that undergo a coaching change will also often experience an immediate, significant boost in performance. Add to this another boost supplied by the addition of a new goalie who had a great season, and I don't think the Sharks are any better this year than they were last year, and last year they were the #3 team in a pretty underwhelming Pacific Division. The division as a whole should be much more competitive, and I think the Sharks are a bubble team this year as a result.

Totally true, but they were also in their twilight last spring too.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Yeah but their old guys are depth guys. And Thorton is still a star player even at his age, but Marleau isn't the guy he once was. However, they have Pavelski, Couture, Donskoi, Hertl, Boedker, Ward and Wingles all in the top 9 that aren't "old" guys

Pavelski is now 32, so that's getting up there. And Ward will be 36 in December. He is very much old.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Outside of Pavelski and Couture, none of those guys are top six forwards in my book.

Hertl and Ward got 20 goals and Marleau got 25. Not to mention Wingles is good for 15 himself.

I think Donskoi is poised to take the next step too. The guys is just all over the ice.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Professor

Totally true, but they were also in their twilight last spring too.

Yes, and as I pointed out, last spring they were enormous beneficiaries of A LOT of good fortune. I do not see the same script repeated with the same roster this year.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Outside of Pavelski and Couture, none of those guys are top six forwards in my book.

Out of curiousity, could you expand on why you think that?

I would say Hertl is a top six forward. He fits perfectly with Thornton and Pavelski and if he weren't injured during the SCF that line's success might have gone very differently. Maybe at center, I'd prefer him at 3C behind Couture and Thornton (IMO both 1Cs) but at wing he's a top six guy, IMO. I kind of have him as a guy like Backlund, a pure 2C and a complimentary top six guy, but not a star.

I would also say Donskoi showed top six ability and has shown impressive hands in generating chances and finishing them. He's "unproven" over a long period of time but that doesn't mean he's "not" a top six forward.

Ward might be old but didn't look slow last year at all, still getting breakaways on younger players. He had 64 goals and 62 assists in his last 243 games, most would consider that to be top six production. Even if he's more of a middle sixer than a true top sixer, he hasn't fallen off the map yet.

I agree Boedker and Wingels are not top six forwards.

[bubbsy]

took the obvious 4 (in no particular order):
- pens
- caps
- hawks
- bolts

5th was the hardest to pick. Went with the Isles.... just cus there's something about them in the few viewings i have that leads me to believe that if they could be healthy and gain some momentum, to go far in a eastern conference playoff run.

[Textcritic]

So, why the hell are the Canadiens on this list?

[Magnum PEI]

Not sure why the panthers arent an option.

[Erick Estrada]

Penguins
Capitals
Blackhawks
Lightning
Stars

There could be a surprise team but I feel these teams are clearly a level above the rest. IMO the Kings, Ducks, Blues, and Sharks are on the decline and that one or two of those teams may miss the playoffs. The Habs, Islanders, Bruins, Rangers, and Flyers are nothing but fringe playoff teams.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Out of curiousity, could you expand on why you think that?

I would say Hertl is a top six forward. He fits perfectly with Thornton and Pavelski and if he weren't injured during the SCF that line's success might have gone very differently. Maybe at center, I'd prefer him at 3C behind Couture and Thornton (IMO both 1Cs) but at wing he's a top six guy, IMO. I kind of have him as a guy like Backlund, a pure 2C and a complimentary top six guy, but not a star.

I would also say Donskoi showed top six ability and has shown impressive hands in generating chances and finishing them. He's "unproven" over a long period of time but that doesn't mean he's "not" a top six forward.

Ward might be old but didn't look slow last year at all, still getting breakaways on younger players. He had 64 goals and 62 assists in his last 243 games, most would consider that to be top six production. Even if he's more of a middle sixer than a true top sixer, he hasn't fallen off the map yet.

I agree Boedker and Wingels are not top six forwards.

Hertl might be a top six winger in the future (maybe even this year), but I don't see a top six center. It depends on how the Sharks see him long term too, and some already see him as the ideal 3rd line center.

http://www.fearthefin.com/2016/9/26/...center-we-need

He has had some moments in the past, and had a decent season last year, but overall hasn't produced consistently enough to be considered for top 2 line duties. That's how I see him now, doesn't mean it can't change.

Ward is the prototypical 3rd liner. He's had a few 20 goal seasons recently, but his style of play is definitely suited to the 3rd line. Don't forget that David Jones and David Moss also had 20 goal years, but were never more than 3rd liners.

Donskoi I admit might have an outside shot in the future as a top 6 player, but he's already 24 and forwards peak in their mid 20's most of the time. 11 goals isn't anything more than a 3rd liner. He played for several years in the Finnish league and never cracked 20 goals. No, I'm pretty sure he is what he is at this point.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Magnum PEI

Not sure why the panthers arent an option.

Most don't take them seriously I would imagine because...history. They need to have back to back good years before they'll be considered contenders. I'm hopeful that they'll be near the top again this year.

[midniteowl]

Pens, Sharks, Hawks, Bolts, Preds

[VladtheImpaler]

There were only 3 I was confident would actually contend - Bolts, Pens and Caps. The rest can miss the playoffs just as easily as "contend" I think. I guess that means I see the West as wide open - any of the listed teams can emerge.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Yeah, feel like Bolts, Pens and Caps are the best bets in the East. Went with Chicago and the Ducks for the west, but don't feel particularly good about it. Preds and Sharks are intriguing for sure.