How to stop Calgary from becoming the next Detroit

[polak]

Yup, Calgary will be Winnipeg jr in 20-50 years.

Just a matter of time. Everyone is just concerned about making the most off of the province as possible with little concern about the future.

[Resolute 14]

Honestly, that's the kind of shrill, alarmist pulp I would expect out of the Toronto Star, not the Globe and Mail.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Honestly, that's the kind of shrill, alarmist pulp I would expect out of the Toronto Star, not the Globe and Mail.

Doesn't surprise me. The G&M has gone steeply downhill in the last couple years, and now routinely post click-bait articles like that. They're resorted to trolling their own readers to drum up age hits.

[OMG!WTF!]

I don't know why you're all freaking out. We've got the largest minimum wage increase in the country happening as we speak. No way we'll turn out like Detroit. Baltimore maybe. But not Detroit.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Locke

Its not a serious problem yet, which is exactly my point.

The part where it becomes a serious problem is when the major industry takes a hit and large chunks of that central population leaves which is something that we may see if theres no serious turnaround for the next 4 years.

People here in Calgary are still expecting that rebound and so we're seeing a slowing in population growth but nobody is leaving yet. 'Yet' being the operative term.

If it does happen and it tends to happen quickly, note the other thread about the recession dragging people down, Property Taxes will not be getting paid but the costs of operating the city arent decreasing along with it.

Demographically we are quite strong though. It's a young population starting families. So even if we lose population through out migration we also will gain population through births. So the 20 year time line remains strong. If you are aging and have outflow that's a significant problem but our demographics can carry any short term out migration.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by GGG

Demographically we are quite strong though. It's a young population starting families. So even if we lose population through out migration we also will gain population through births. So the 20 year time line remains strong. If you are aging and have outflow that's a significant problem but our demographics can carry any short term out migration.

I agree, and those are very good points.

I'm not saying that its time to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside, I'm saying that it isnt as outlandish a proposition as some think it is.

We're ticking off all of the early warning sign boxes.

- Primary industry in steep decline - check
- Bloated public services - check
- Multitude of parasite communities - check

We're not at the point where its time to hit the big red button and get to DefCon 5, but its something to be concerned about.

[Vulcan]

Alberta has been talking about diversifying since the 80s at least. That's what IIRC our Heritage Fund was supposed to be mostly about. Nothing really has happened and it probably won't until the xxxx really hits the fan.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Alberta has been talking about diversifying since the 80s at least. That's what IIRC our Heritage Fund was supposed to be mostly about. Nothing really has happened and it probably won't until the xxxx really hits the fan.

Necessity is the mother of invention.

[Shazam]

There were lots of diversification attempts done by the PCs back in the day. That was one of the reasons why there was such a massive debt when Klein took power.

Someone even ranted about it in the CH. Surely the NDP will do better.

PC leader Ric McIver is accusing the NDP of “gross incompetence” for not knowing about the PC-negotiated and improperly changed “Enron Clause” guaranteeing power companies a profit at taxpayer’s expense. How would he describe the PC’s handling of Bill-11, NovAtel, Principle Group, Gainers, Al-PAC, Miller-Western, Husky Oil Upgrader, Holy Cross Hospital renovations and sale, West Edmonton Mall loan guarantee and countless other PC deals which cost the taxpayer tens of billions of dollars.

If the PCs and Wildrose opposition were so competent, why didn’t they warn our new government of this clause? Why are they trying to sabotage our province and cause our government to fail, regardless of all the suffering it costs the taxpayer? Why are they more loyal to their party interests than the well-being of Alberta?

Atul Jain, Calgary

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Locke

I agree, and those are very good points.

I'm not saying that its time to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside, I'm saying that it isnt as outlandish a proposition as some think it is.

We're ticking off all of the early warning sign boxes.

- Primary industry in steep decline - check
- Bloated public services - check
- Multitude of parasite communities - check

We're not at the point where its time to hit the big red button and get to DefCon 5, but its something to be concerned about.

I'd also disagree with multitude of parasite communities and bloated public services. City taxes are still low relative to other centers. And our parasite communities are small relative to populations and remote relative to the core. And the Canadian Mega City solution has already been implemented elsewhere so if the situation where they become a drain becomes a reality we just form a Calgary Metro tax base like Toronto did.

So the decline of our industry is concerning I don't see Detroit as a good comparable. In fact if you look at the donut around Detroit and ignore the core the greater metropolitan area is doing fine.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Honestly, that's the kind of shrill, alarmist pulp I would expect out of the Toronto Star, not the Globe and Mail.

Seriously this article is such steaming hot garbage I'm surprised it's even generated discussion here.

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Calgary's a city with deep racial issues and a workforce mostly employed in unionized, industrial jobs?

No? What a non-story.

[Bunk]

This guy's prescription is basically "keep taxes reasonably low". Real deep thinking there.

He also glossed over the main cause of the City of Detroit's decline, which was white flight en masse. In the previous 4 decades the metro region of Detroit has done relatively well and has grown massively and diversified. Calgary's situation is so different, it's barely worth the comparison.

[Shazam]

Detroit's main problem was unfettered debt expansion. Municipal bonds are tasty.

Luckily the Alberta gov't is the only lender to the City of Calgary.

[ricosuave]

This is a great book that documents what we're talking about in this thread...

https://www.amazon.ca/Detroit-Americ.../dp/0143124463

PM me if you want to borrow it.

[Shazam]

I suppose the main driver were the ####ty cars being farted out.

[FireGilbert]

What's wrong with the Flames becoming the next Red Wings? I will take 4 cups in 20 years.

Oh wait this isn't the FOI forum...

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Bunk

This guy's prescription is basically "keep taxes reasonably low". Real deep thinking there.



He also glossed over the main cause of the City of Detroit's decline, which was white flight en masse. In the previous 4 decades the metro region of Detroit has done relatively well and has grown massively and diversified. Calgary's situation is so different, it's barely worth the comparison.

The writer was part of the Fraser Institute from 2010 to 2015. This is just another in a string of F.I. articles that paint a dire picture then blame it all on taxes.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

Calgary's a city with deep racial issues and a workforce mostly employed in unionized, industrial jobs?

No? What a non-story.

Don't forget that about 88% of the greater Calgary population lives in Calgary, while about 88% of the greater Detroit population lives outside Detroit.

[CroFlames]

So Detroit has been in decline since 1950 with deep seeded racial problems, and Calgary has been in decline for the past six months.

So Calgary = Detroit?