Drafting outside of the top 3 picks 2016

[dammage79]

Nylander
McLeod
Sergachev

Dubois would be 4th on the list and Tkachuk in 5th.

I picked Nylander over McLeod but it's a hair width of separation between them. Bah. Should have voted McLeod. Any of those top 3 after the big 3 are gone and I'm happy.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

Does taking a defenseman seem like a likely scenario for anyone? It doesn't really to me but its a crapshoot after top 3 seemingly.

Wouldn't shock me. Treliving is a former defenseman and I think he knows how valuable they are in trade and how hard it is to find great ones. A top 2-3 defenseman is a much more valuable commodity than a 2nd line winger. So if the highest upside players left are defensemen in the minds in the Flames scouts and management then I think they'd be happy to take one.

If Tkachuk/Dubois are gone before our pick then I think picking a defensemen actually becomes quite likely. But I suspect one or more of the teams in the 4/5/6 range will snap one up and one of Tkachuk/Dubois could fall to us.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

As there does not seem to be a default forward (like Monahan at #6 or Bennett at #4) I think the Flames should draft the best D-Man... sounds like the first d-man taken in the last 6 Drafts has done very well:

2010 - Erik Gudbranson
2011 - Adam Larson
2012 - Ryan Murray
2013 - Seth Jones
2014 - Aaron Ekblad
2015 - Noel Hanifin

It is a bit harder for the GM to pick a D-man as it might take an extra year or 2 and the GM could be fired waiting.

All of those players except Ekblad (and it's too early to rate Hanifin) have disappointed relative to their draft position.

[Monahan For Mayor]

Dubois
Nylander
McLeod

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

There's a small drop off there. The big drop off is around 20 or so.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...epth/80668094/

"But there’s a steep decline in talent in the mid-20s, and then things drop off a cliff around the middle of the second round."

Redline actually thinks the 2nd tier is from 3rd to 5th.

"Let’s focus on the positive for now. The top tier is probably a two-man group of Auston Matthews (who we all knew heading into the year would be in this discussion) and Patrik Laine (who has seemingly overcome his maturity and coachability issues from previous years to let his wondrous natural gifts take over).

It can certainly be argued that any of the three members of Red Line’s second tier — Jesse Puljujärvi, Matthew Tkachuk, and Jakob Chychrun — should be included in with that top pair. Each has been impressive enough at times to be considered among the elite.

But we think there’s a clear break after those top five down to the next tier, which runs about a dozen deep — from No. 6 to No. 17."

Matthews, Laine, and Puljujarvi are consistently ranked in the top 3 in almost every list out there. There is consensus with them.

After them, it's a jumbled mess of Dubois, Tkachuk, Nylander, etc., with little consensus.

There are a lot more red flags for the players ranked 4-8.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

This post has nothing at all to do with drafting 5-8.

Yes it does. Polak suggested we never take a player from the QMJHL in the 1st round. I did some research to see whether that was a justified opinion or silly opinion.

Go shove it if you didn't like it. You infest this board with tons of rubbish posts and are one of the worst posters here.

[GranteedEV]

My preferences, in order would be:

1) Pierre-Luc Dubois
2) German Rubtsov
3) Clayton Keller
4) Mikhael Sergachyev
5) Mike McLeod
6) Jacob Chychrun
7) Matthew Tkachuk
8) Dante Fabbro
9) Alex Nylander
10) Tyson Jost

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

My preferences, in order would be:

1) Pierre-Luc Dubois
2) German Rubtsov
3) Clayton Keller
4) Mikhael Sergachyev
5) Mike McLeod
6) Jacob Chychrun
7) Matthew Tkachuk
8) Dante Fabbro
9) Alex Nylander
10) Tyson Jost

Really surprised you're so high on Rubtsov.

I think after the performances of Gurianov and Nichushkin in recent drafts, teams will be even more shy to draft a player straight out of Russia right now.

[SuperMatt18]

I would love if Puljujarvi somehow fell a little bit.

Seems like his stock has slowly declined with Laine taking all of the hype post WJC.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Really surprised you're so high on Rubtsov.

I think after the performances of Gurianov and Nichushkin in recent drafts, teams will be even more shy to draft a player straight out of Russia right now.

Rubtsov isn't really similar to Gurianov, Nichushkin, or Svechnikov IMO - aside from the country he's from. Unlike those Russian wingers, Rubtsov's biggest asset is his hockey sense. I believe he can be a Zetterberg type dominant player.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Really surprised you're so high on Rubtsov.

I think after the performances of Gurianov and Nichushkin in recent drafts, teams will be even more shy to draft a player straight out of Russia right now.

Why? Nichushkin been fine. I'm not sure what anyone was to expect of a player coming off of a missed season and hip surgery. Are we going to throw Gillies under the bus next year?

Gurionov got cut from WJCs but other than that I don't know why he'd be a bust or make teams even more weary of drafting Russians high.

After a couple of years of this Russian factor argument I feel like it's taken a back seat to the NCAA factor where an equal amount of players have snubbed their drafting team.

And other players history still does not correlate to anything Rubstov will do when he is drafted.

He's an intriguing player, looks like he has top ten talent.

If the Russian factor pushes this guy down to the Flames 2nd pick or Dallas' if we get it, you need to take this guy and run. But I get why someone would want him high too.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

All of those players except Ekblad (and it's too early to rate Hanifin) have disappointed relative to their draft position.

They are all top-4 d-men in ice time getting 22+ minutes. They are getting more ice time than Hamilton .... was he a steal or a bust as the 2nd D-man taken at #9 in 2011?

Seth Jones was traded for a Monahan level centre....

[JiriHrdina]

Nylander for me. The most upside. I think people are scared off by his last name.
That being said, I don't think that's the direction the Flames would go. I bet it would be Dubois or Tkachuk.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Why? Nichushkin been fine. I'm not sure what anyone was to expect of a player coming off of a missed season and hip surgery. Are we going to throw Gillies under the bus next year?

Gurionov got cut from WJCs but other than that I don't know why he'd be a bust or make teams even more weary of drafting Russians high.

After a couple of years of this Russian factor argument I feel like it's taken a back seat to the NCAA factor where an equL amount of players have snubbed their drafting team.

And other players history still does not correlate to anything Rubstov will do when he is drafted.

He's an I triguing player, looks like he has top ten talent.

If the Russian factor pushes this guy down to the Flames pick or Dallas' if we get it, you need to take this guy and run. But I get why someone would want him high too.

Injury or not, Nichushkin would not be drafted where he was if your redid the 2013 draft with hindsight.

He's been openly complaining to the Russian media, he's underperformed, and it looks like his future isn't in Dallas.

Gurianov as a mid-1st round pick is barely developing in the KHL and got cut from the WJC team. That's not good news for a player drafted so high.

I don't have as many issues drafting a Russian developing in North America.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

All of those players except Ekblad (and it's too early to rate Hanifin) have disappointed relative to their draft position.

Tough to say that really - d-men take longer to develop so it's hard to compare them yet.

Gudbranson struggled to start but is looking like he could be a really good shutdown d-man. Still want more from 3rd overall but the draft overall isn't great.

Larsson really started to look great for New Jersey this year and is looking pretty good.

Murray has been injury plagued but looked decent in his first non injury shortened season this year. And that was a somewhat weak draft overall as well.

Jones and Ekblad are both studs.

Too early to tell for Hanifin but 22 pts in 79 games is a really good season for an 18 year old.

Really the only guy that you probably want a re-do on is Gudbranson. Murray you might change too but you are probably taking a different d-man in that spot and not a forward.

[SuperMatt18]

Think the way I rank this at this point would be:

4: Dubois
5: Chychrun
6: Nylander
7: Tkachuk
8: Juolevi
9: Sergachev
10: Mcleod

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Injury or not, Nichushkin would not be drafted where he was if your redid the 2013 draft with hindsight.

He's been openly complaining to the Russian media, he's underperformed, and it looks like his future isn't in Dallas.

Gurianov as a mid-1st round pick is barely developing in the KHL and got cut from the WJC team. That's not good news for a player drafted so high.

I don't have as many issues drafting a Russian developing in North America.

Whoa whoa there. Nichushkin was drafted tenth, why would he not be drafted there if the draft was re-done? Domi? Nothing there dictates Domi will catch or Match Nichushkin next season. Wennberg? Lazar? No. You re-do the draft I think he end up right where he went. 10th.

Being cut from the WJC means nothing in regards to Gurianov, He took a stupid penalty in the pre tourney games. His KHL stats are a mirage as well as he was only averaging 10 minutes of ice time a game. ranking hi 16th out of 17th. Something that happens a ton in the KHL with teenagers on the main roster. In shots per game, he was averaging 1.6 ranking 5th on the team.


If he jumps over to the AHL next season and is used top 6, they can handle his development better.

[Erick Estrada]

I picked Dubois with McLeod (maybe he's getting some late riser love but the more I read about him the more he looks like a complete player that will translate into a solid NHL player and being amongst the fastest skaters in the draft is pretty important for a team like the Flames that can use some quick skating forwards) a close second.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Being cut from the WJC means nothing in regards to Gurianov, He took a stupid penalty in the pre tourney games. His KHL stats are a mirage as well as he was only averaging 10 minutes of ice time a game. ranking hi 16th out of 17th. Something that happens a ton in the KHL with teenagers on the main roster. In shots per game, he was averaging 1.6 ranking 5th on the team.

I know this. I'm not just looking at his stats.

If I'm a general manager, I don't want my 1st round pick playing 8 minutes a night in the KHL on the 4th line during prime development years.

The poor offensive production is the result, yes, but the implications long term are much worse.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

There's years where you have to take defensemen high because they are worth it.

2008 - Doughty (2nd), Bogosian (3rd), Pietrangelo (4th), Schenn (5th), Myers (12th), Teubert (13th), Karlsson (15th), Gardiner (17th), Sbisa (19th), Del Zotto (20th), Carlson (27th)
Wowza. Defensemen drastically outperformed forwards that year. Arguably some of these d-men should've gone much higher.

2009 - Hedman (2nd), OEL (6th), Ellis (11th), De Haan (12th), Kulikov 14th, Leddy (16th)
Another year where if you took a defenseman high you weren't disappointed.

2010 - Gudbranson (3rd), Fowler (12th), Gormley (13th)
Wasn't a great draft. Gudbranson went high because elite physical defensive defensemen with mobility are actually very rare but obviously not a sexy pick. Fowler fell for no good reason. Gormley has disappointed.

2011 - Larsson (4th), Hamilton (9th), Brodin (10th), Siemens (11th), Murphy (12th), Oleksiak (14th)
First three guys seem fine to me. Dropped off after that.

2012 - Murray (2nd), Reilly (4th), Lindholm (6th), Dumba (7th), Pouliot (8th), Trouba (9th), Koekkoek (10th), Ceci (15th)
Really like Reilly, Lindholm, Ceci. Dumba, Murray, Pouliot, Trouba all seem solid too.

Probably premature to judge anything newer than that. Looks to me like overall defensemen quality has gone up since the early-mid 2000's. A big part of this is Sweden's resurgence in development and how many world class defensemen they are exporting to the NHL. I'd say a lot of the defensemen taken high have been very justified in going in those positions.