Flames assign Poirier to Stockton

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

There's a difference between over-ripening and these guys stagnating. People want to point to Detroit and allow their guys to ripen in the minors but those guys were tearing up the AHL and coming up and making an impact in the NHL in their call-ups.

There's nothing saying the Poirier is not going to be an NHL player but the odds of him being a top 6 guy at this point are slim.

Odds of him being a top 6 guy when we drafted him were slim also...........as would be the case for any player picked in that spot.

The way you articulated you thoughts there proves exactly what peoples problems are. I'm not sure what the odds are for a player picked where Poirier was picked even making the NHL, but I'm pretty sure most don't have a meaningful career, and I'm very sure, most don't become regular Top 6 forwards.

As people are evaluating his progress (or any prospects for that matter), they are confusing what expecations should be versus what their hopes are. There was no reason to believe a player picked where Poirier was should develop into a top 6 talent, that was never the most likely scenario. Getting to be a consistent NHL talent at some point is goal, nothing more. The fact that he hasn't yet developed into said player, this early on in his development, and it's causing some to view that as a failure on him or our development system is completely off base and has nothing to do with anything other than our own false expectations.

[Sylvanfan]

It's interesting to analyze the 10 drafts from 2004 to 2013 where the Flames did end up picking in the 20's a fair bit. They selected 9 players between picks 21 to 28 over that 10 year period, and traded for one more in Shinkaruk to give them 10 players from 8 drafts in that time period with 4 of them currently prospects. Out of the other 5 you have one hit in Backlund and 4 strikeouts.

2004 Kris Chucko 2 NHL Games as a Flame, out of hockey in 2011
2005 Matt Pelech 13 NHL Games, 5 as a Flame, still playing in Europe
2006 Leland Irving 13 NHL Games, went to Europe currently in AHL
2007 Mikael Backlund still with Flames, has proven as a legit top 7 NHL forward
2008 Greg Nemisz 15 NHL Games as a Flame, last pro season was last year
2009 Tom Erixon 93 NHL Games with 5 teams, currently in AHL
2010 No pick
2011 Baertschi picked 13
2012 Janikowski Just started Pro Career
2013 Klimchuck/Poirier, later traded for Shinkaruk

Guys like Pelech and Chucko did seem to be progressing in the AHL for the first 3 seasons, but fizzled out after that. I don't know if it was the move to Abbotsford, but it seems like a lot of Flames players died after playing for Abbotsford. None of these guys went on to do anything with any other organizations, and really didn't earn much in terms of other NHL opportunities.

Poirier, had a solid start as a pro putting up respectable numbers for an AHL rookie last year, but does seem to have regressed this year.

I don't watch the AHL at all, so I really can't comment on Poirier's actual play. It could be that the coaching staff there has him focused on playing a style that he'll need to play in the pro's in order to stick at that level so hence a decrease in offensive output.

But the one thing I can garner from looking at the previous failed guys who were forwards is that if he doesn't break thru next year and establish himself as an NHL option by years end...it does look like guys who are 4th year pro's who haven't stuck end up out of the organization by the end of the 4th year or as life time minor league guys.

So this is going to be a huge offseason for Poirier, and next year looks like it could make or break his NHL career.

[CliffFletcher]

I'm not really concerned with how Poirier has played in limited NHL duty. But it's unlikely a guy becomes a scorer in the NHL if he can't separate himself from the pack at the AHL level. Gustav Nyquist, the post-boy for patient development, put up over a point per game in three consecutive AHL seasons (139 points in 129 games).

[Enoch Root]

at the age of 21-23

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Odds of him being a top 6 guy when we drafted him were slim also...........as would be the case for any player picked in that spot.

The way you articulated you thoughts there proves exactly what peoples problems are. I'm not sure what the odds are for a player picked where Poirier was picked even making the NHL, but I'm pretty sure most don't have a meaningful career, and I'm very sure, most don't become regular Top 6 forwards.

As people are evaluating his progress (or any prospects for that matter), they are confusing what expecations should be versus what their hopes are. There was no reason to believe a player picked where Poirier was should develop into a top 6 talent, that was never the most likely scenario. Getting to be a consistent NHL talent at some point is goal, nothing more. The fact that he hasn't yet developed into said player, this early on in his development, and it's causing some to view that as a failure on him or our development system is completely off base and has nothing to do with anything other than our own false expectations.

The hope is that these guys can be productive NHL players or else why follow them at all.

And if Poirier isn't going to be a scorer then he's competing with guys like Hathaway/Jooris, etc to be an energy guy and he's not showing that either. He's still young and there is still time but pointing out red flags is still a valid discussion point.