I think a top 3 pick would be amazing for this team and would speed up the rebuild by a year. The Flames need help and I think the draft is the only legitimate answer, they don't have assets to trade for the kinds of players they need. Heck, I don't think the Flames have enough assets in the organization as it is. I really have faith in the management and scouts to get good players and a year of higher draft picks would really push this team forward.
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Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
I ran the simulator 50 times around two weeks ago as I was kinda bored and curious, so the standings were a little different but it's not anything too radical from what it is now. I recorded my results so I'll copy them here, these were my findings (PS I ran two different simulators, one was Tankathon and one was NHL Draft Lottery Simulator, I'm only detailing NHL Draft Lottery Simulator's here, but Tankathon gave much crazier results. So in total I ran two different simulators 50 times each for a total of 100 rolls, but NHL Draft Lottery Simulator still gave some pretty insane results at times. You will see at the end of my analysis that Columbus, when using NHL Draft Lottery Simulator, had more than a 6x improvement of getting the first overall pick. When I used Tankathon it felt like Columbus, who was in 30th place at the time, was constantly getting the worst luck and kept getting kicked to the curb):
Spoiler!
*chances are for first overall pick, not second- and third-overall adjusted
Standings and Chances on NHL Lottery Simulator (pre-game action, 02/02/16):
Columbus - 30th - 20%
Edmonton - 29th - 13.5%
Buffalo - 28th - 11.5%
Toronto - 27th - 9.5%
Calgary - 26th - 8.5%
Winnipeg - 25th - 7.5%
Vancouver - 24th - 6.5%
Montreal - 23rd - 6%
Ottawa - 22nd - 5%
Carolina - 21st - 3.5%
Philadelphia - 20th - 3%
Anaheim - 19th - 2.5%
Colorado - 18th - 2%
New Jersey - 17th - 1%
Spoiler!
The Simulation - NHL Lottery Simulator - 50 simulations
Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton
Montreal, Columbus, Ottawa
Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton
Columbus, Montreal, Vancouver
Winnipeg, Toronto, Columbus
Colorado, Toronto, Winnipeg
Buffalo, Montreal, Columbus
Ottawa, Buffalo, Edmonton
Edmonton, Buffalo, Columbus
Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary
Carolina, Buffalo, Montreal
Columbus, Buffalo, Calgary
Carolina, Winnipeg, Montreal
Columbus, Vancouver, Edmonton
Winnipeg, Edmonton, Columbus
Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa
Buffalo, Vancouver, Edmonton
Columbus, Toronto, Calgary
Winnipeg, Columbus, Edmonton
Columbus, Edmonton, Toronto
Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto
Vancouver, Columbus, Montreal
Vancouver, Columbus, Buffalo
Edmonton, Winnipeg, Columbus
Columbus, Toronto, Vancouver
Edmonton, Buffalo, Toronto
Buffalo, Vancouver, Columbus
Carolina, Montreal, Toronto
Ottawa, Carolina, Anaheim
Calgary, Ottawa, Edmonton
Edmonton, Winnipeg, Buffalo
Montreal, Buffalo, Carolina
Winnipeg, Calgary, Buffalo
Columbus, Calgary, Buffalo
Toronto, Columbus, Calgary
Columbus, Buffalo, Montreal
New Jersey, Colorado, Buffalo
New Jersey, Carolina, Vancouver
Columbus, Buffalo, Calgary
Columbus, Calgary, Buffalo
Toronto, Philadelphia, Columbus
Montreal, Ottawa, Columbus
Columbus, Calgary, Edmonton
Winnipeg, Montreal, Philadelphia
Columbus, Ottawa, Winnipeg
Buffalo, Columbus, Toronto
Carolina, Winnipeg, Edmonton
Columbus, Calgary, Buffalo
Vancouver, Columbus, Calgary
Montreal, Buffalo, Winnipeg
Analysis:
# of times Calgary picked first overall (8.5% chance/26th): 1 time - 2% of the time
# of times Calgary picked second overall: 6 times - 12% of the time
# of times Calgary picked third overall: 6 times - 12% of the time
# of times Calgary picked in the top 3: 13 times - 26% of the time
# of times Edmonton picked first overall (13.5% chance/29th): 5 times - 10% of the time
# of times Edmonton picked second overall: 3 times - 6% of the time
# of times Edmonton picked third overall: 9 times - 18% of the time
# of times Edmonton picked in the top 3: 16 times - 34% of the time
# of times Vancouver picked first overall (6.5% chance/24th): 4 times - 8% of the time
# of times Vancouver picked second overall: 4 times - 8% of the time
# of times Vancouver picked third overall: 3 times - 6% of the time
# of times Vancouver picked in the top 3: 11 times - 22% of the time
What changed from Tankathon? The master tankers re-visited:
Buffalo (11.5%/28th) - 4 times - 8% of the time *down 10%
Ottawa (5%/22nd) - 3 times - 6% of the time *split in half
Toronto (9.5%/27th) - 3 times - 6% of the time *split in half
Montreal (6%/23rd) - 5 times - 10% of the time *same
Columbus (20%/30th) - 13 times - 26% of the time *more than 6x improvement
__________________ NHL Flames | Golden Knights | Cal Stampeders | Panthers | Chelsea FC | AVFC | Raptors | Orlando Magic | Blue Jays | Athletics | Inferno CWHL
That simulator is sweet. Love that odds page. Dunno why they have Puljujarvi ahead of Laine in their rankings though, think most have it the other way round at this point.
Based on the standings as of tonight, it appears about 90% certain (maybe a bit less) that the Flames pick Top 8 in this draft...gonna be a good player in that range.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LickTheEnvelope View Post
... Eakins' claims Gagne's line played Kessel's line even...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hells Bells View Post
Yeah, Gagner's line was -4 and Kessel's was +4, so it all evened out.
I like those odds. Realistically, if the Flames keep playing the way they have been especially with Hiller in net, they're going to get at least a top 4 pick. As much as some people still want to play for pride and are afraid that getting a high draft pick makes you the oilers, getting a top 4 pick would help turn this team around in 2-3 years. Any one of Matthews, Laine, Pull-an-RV, or Choochrun would help strengthen the core and inject life into the franchise. I'd openly like a forward over a D but after the big 3 are gone, I think the best player available is Chychrun.
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Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
