FF80F prospect update

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by flambers

The other consideration is Darren Haynes is listing the impact in NHL that a prospect will have.

Therefore, it makes sense to list Gillies as #1, as he is billed as a future #1 goalie. Janko is more of a #3 Center in my view

"For my rankings, note also that this isn't the order I expect players to ascend to the NHL.

Do not view it as a 'who will be next?' chronological list. Instead, it is a hybrid approach that also factors in the impact/role I expect that player to have when (or if) they do make it to the NHL."

My thoughts were based on Kylington alone. I respect Haynes' thoughts a bunch but the lack of a proper analysis on Kylington left me a but confused because it goes against everything I've been reading in the farm forum and from other pundits. I get the fact people have a bias about specific players, I really had no issues with his list save maybe Poirier and Kylington. And Arnold, but he gave a reasonable explanation as to why he put Arnold where he did.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by dammage79

My thoughts were based on Kylington alone. I respect Haynes' thoughts a bunch but he lack of a proper analysis on Kylington left me a but confused because it goes against everything I've been reading in the farm forum and from other pundits.

I get the fact people have a bias about specific players, I really had no issues with his list save maybe Poirier and Kylington. And Arnold, but he gave a reasonable explanation as to why he put Arnold where he did.

Remember Darren is connected to the Flames, I would bet he has done some research.

However, its still just an educated opinion.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

He keeps close tabs on them. I think it is a mistake when people assume because they have a different opinion than you - that it means they must know less.

Well, he's entitled to his opinion and I like his blog. However when I see how volatile some of his rankings are on guys like Janko, Kulak, Ollas-Mattsson, Mangiapane I definitely don't think he's got as strong a read on the prospects as some others who follow the prospects more closely. I mean people following more closely would never have put Hunter Smith ahead of Kulak in the first place in any way - upside or readiness. That was clearly a case of punishing Kulak for his ECHL stint and rewarding Smith for his team success in a worse league than the ECHL.

I don't blame Darren, or anyone voting in CP Prospect polls for being wrong, because most of us don't follow closely. I sure don't. But the few that do - Drury18, PMM, Ron Sutter, Alberta Beef, Caged Great etc tend to have more reliable, repeatable rankings from what I can usually tell. That's all. It's fair criticism to look at Kulak going from unranked to 11th and ask: did the player really improve from where he was at in April or did you just get a better look up close at him during Pentincton / Preseason? That also explains Karnaukhov's odd precence at 15 despite poor stats - the Hitmen play right here at home so there's more opportunity to go watch him. It's an interesting source of bias worthy of conversation - would Pavel be ranked the same if he played in Siberia with Rafikov? I don't think so.

Still, it was an entertaining read.

[mikephoen]

I admit to not watching prospects nearly as much as many here, but that said, I believe there are 3 Laws of Prospects that aren't being observed in the FF80F article.

1. Regression is never good.
2. Injuries are never good.
3. Goalies prospects almost never make it.

Almost by default Jankowski, Andersson and Kylington should be near the top, as they're about the only ones having good seasons. After that Magianpane (much longer shot) and Hickey, Kulak, Arnold and Grant (all with much lower ceilings) should probably factor in. Then maybe Gilles, but a goalie who just had a season long injury can't be a rated that high in my opinion. Klimchuk and Poirier both still have potential, but neither are having good seasons so far, but are top 10 almost by default. Granlund is at least playing in the NHL, so he probably deserves a spot in the top 10 at least.

Those would be my top 12, with Jankowski, Andersson and Kylington being B+ level prospects and the rest being B to C+.

Ortio and McDonald wouldn't even crack my top 20, they've both been nothing short of terrible.

Good thing the Flames have graduated some stars (and at least 1 superstar) in the last few seasons, because the cupboards are looking kind of bare again. No regrets from me on the Hamilton trade either, but that hasn't helped the prospect lists. At least one excellent prospect should be coming this off season though, and that will help things look brighter in the summer.

[Samuelsson]

No love for Ollas-Mattsson? Didn't he make the Swedish WJC squad ahead of Kylington and Andersson, and played pretty well at that?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Samuelsson

No love for Ollas-Mattsson? Didn't he make the Swedish WJC squad ahead of Kylington and Andersson, and played pretty well at that?

Well I think his upside is as a 4-7 guy and he hasn't yet shown in North America yet. So I think some people have him lower because his upside is lower and also because he's fairly unproven as well. The WJC was nice though and should have him rising on lists.

He'd make my top 20 but not my top 10.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Samuelsson

No love for Ollas-Mattsson? Didn't he make the Swedish WJC squad ahead of Kylington and Andersson, and played pretty well at that?

Well I was doing some looking-up-of-stats and it's almost eery how similarily Ollas-Mattsson's stats at most ages resemble another Swede who plays a similar game and was actually a pre-draft comparable.

That player?

Niklas Hjalmarsson!

But I've only ever watched AOM play at World Juniors. Same case of "familiarity bias" that I can't exactly brush aside.

[Matty81]

Subjective but I'd have Jankowski, Kylington and Agostino higher.

Mason McDonald, Klimchuk and Ortio (who seems pretty close to being done in the organization and has been outplayed by Poulin) all lower.

Still interesting read, always good content on Darren's site.

[Samonadreau]

Im not considering Janko a prospect until hes signed.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Im not considering Janko a prospect until hes signed.

That doesn't make sense.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Im not considering Janko a prospect until hes signed.

He's Flames property still. Not sure why not having a contract would affect that. Did you never consider Gaudreau a prospect? What about guys that were just drafted?

[AC]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Im not considering Janko a prospect until hes signed.

That qualification would arbitrarily eliminate:

Bruce,
Gilmour,
Harrison,
Hickey,
Jankowski,
Karnaukhov,
Mangiapane,
Ollas-Mattsson,
and Rafikov.

[Samonadreau]

^ It is probably a little silly. I realize guys like Gaudreau and Arnold were signed just after their graduation, but unlike most of the players listed hes a coveted UFA this summer. Hope he signs, until he does anything could happen. I guess hes a prospect either way.

[dying4acup]

All good comments.

I could see Jankowski making the team out of camp next fall.

Imagine if he could be a top 2 centre ��.

[PeteMoss]

I have no idea how well Haynes follows Stockton but I'm sure a lot of the posters here have watched 0 games of theirs while calling out his ranking.

[Red Menace]

I've always thought these kind of lists should include ALL players under a certain age (let's say 25) including NHLers....then you can get a real grasp on how the organization compares to other teams.
In any case, this is a pretty good list...using this arbitrary criteria I would rank them as follows:
1. Kylington
2. Gillies
3. Andersson
4. Granlund
5. Hickey
6. Poirier
7. Jankowski
8. Mangiapane
9. Ortio
10. Arnold
11. McDonald
12. Klimchuk
13. Grant
14. Ollass-Matsson
15. F.Hamilton
16. Kulak
17. Rafikov
18. Shore
19. Wotherspoon
20. Gilmour
then, Agostino, Culkin, Hathaway, Karnaukhov, Poulin, Smith, Carroll, Morrisson, Elson, BVB, Sieloff, Kanzig, Bruce, Harrison, DeBlouw,

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

^ It is probably a little silly. I realize guys like Gaudreau and Arnold were signed just after their graduation, but unlike most of the players listed hes a coveted UFA this summer. Hope he signs, until he does anything could happen. I guess hes a prospect either way.

Not Gaudreau. Your position is based on erroneous facts and odd assumptions.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Well I was doing some looking-up-of-stats and it's almost eery how similarily Ollas-Mattsson's stats at most ages resemble another Swede who plays a similar game and was actually a pre-draft comparable.

That player?

Niklas Hjalmarsson!

But I've only ever watched AOM play at World Juniors. Same case of "familiarity bias" that I can't exactly brush aside.

I look at these lists as a fun thing to do but when it comes down to it, we don't have a good idea of what management really thinks. I could see a player like Mattsson making the team while a few other sexier prospects get left behind.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I honestly think that Buzz Kylington is going to be the player with the most impact on that list. I think he's going to be a really good scoring, fast skating defender with an amazing nickname.

If Gillies works out as hoped he will have the most impact of anyone, just because a stud goalie > stud any other position in almost all cases.

[druetetective]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Im not considering Janko a prospect until hes signed.

Haynes mentioned he wanted to turn pro last summer. I think that is a good indication he intends to sign with the Flames.