Iran standoff with Saudi

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by doctajones428

PIMking's second account?

Of course I am kidding.

Second thought, care to donate to my cause?

[T@T]

Originally Posted by doctajones428

PIMking's second account?

Or Mine!

I said it before one of the nitwits did

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

The Iranians back just as much extremism.

I'd agree that something needs to be done about the Saudi's backing extremism, but I don't see why we have to back either of them. Both seem pretty bad to me.

The Iranian Goverment is still fairly extreme but the people themselves arnt, as a branch of Islam the Shia are a lot easier to deal with and most Iranians still pride themselves on being more advanced and western, they look down on 'Arabs' with utter disdain.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The Iranian Goverment is still fairly extreme but the people themselves arnt, as a branch of Islam the Shia are a lot easier to deal with and most Iranians still pride themselves on being more advanced and western, they look down on 'Arabs' with utter disdain.

Ethinic disdain is the hallmark of an advanced society, after all.

[bizaro86]

I do agree that the Iranian people are very different than the Government. In my experience Persians are lovely people who are dissappointed with the extremism.

[Ducay]

Bahrain, Sudan, UAE also cut diplomatic ties today.

I think any potential uptick in oil from potential volatility will be sadly offset by this news on decrease Chinese manufacturing.

[FlamesAddiction]

Iran is a country of juxtaposition.

The regime is still very religious and backwards, but on the street level, there is a pretty significant secular movement. There are some areas where the regime has little power.

I believe their government also has a pretty strong relationship with secular China (and Pakistan I think), so despite being a theocracy, they have somewhat of a pragmatic approach. But then you also get them calling for the destruction of Israel, and you can see how they still use religion as a weapon.

With Saudi Arabia, it seems like the government and the people want nothing more than to spread religion and avoid dealing with outsiders.

[Resolute 14]

The proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia is one thing that can drive the price of oil back up. The Saudis and Iranians are battling for control over the middle east in a miniature version of the American-Soviet Cold War, and that is expensive. The need to fund their plans for regional domination is one of the factors that could eventually cause the Saudis to finally order OPEC to cut production, which would allow the supply gut to ease.

[_Q_]

The idea that this little tiff will bring the price of oil up is wishful thinking... Unless all out war between the two breaks out (but that's never going to happen).

[CaptainCrunch]

I doubt that there will be an open war fought between the two countries, but they're both mass exporters of terrorism with fingers in the extremist pie.

Years ago Saudi Arabia became a state exporter of craziness after a massive terrorist attack where they agreed to fund and shelter groups on the side in exchange for no attacks on Saudi soil.

Iran has always spent money on sheltering and training.

Could get interesting.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by _Q_

The idea that this little tiff will bring the price of oil up is wishful thinking... Unless all out war between the two breaks out (but that's never going to happen).

I don't think "never" is a word you can you use to describe the potential for war in the middle east, especially given the two countries have opposite sectarian views.

The Iran-Iraq war was pretty destructive for both parties, but that still happened.

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I don't think "never" is a word you can you use to describe the potential for war in the middle east, especially given the two countries have opposite sectarian views.

The Iran-Iraq war was pretty destructive for both parties, but that still happened.

Fair enough... I just don't see an appetite for a very destructive war from either end right now. Things are reasonably good these days in both countries.

[Resolute 14]

Not an open war, but the proxy war that is already being fought. The two nations are trying to establish control of the middle east. And the Saudis are spending a lot of money for their part. It is one of many reasons why their debt as a percentage of GDP is skyrocketing. Eventually, they will need to increase their cash flow, and that will come by working to jack oil back up. That is a question of 'when', not 'if'.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Not an open war, but the proxy war that is already being fought. The two nations are trying to establish control of the middle east. And the Saudis are spending a lot of money for their part. It is one of many reasons why their debt as a percentage of GDP is skyrocketing. Eventually, they will need to increase their cash flow, and that will come by working to jack oil back up. That is a question of 'when', not 'if'.

To increase cash flow they need to sell more oil, not hold it back

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

To increase cash flow they need to sell more oil, not hold it back

Selling one barrel of oil at $85 is better than selling two at $40. The price of oil will not recover until the existing oversupply is eliminated, and that will only happen with production cuts.

[afc wimbledon]

Iran hasn't been able to legally sell its oil to the west for years, therefore any price is good for them, Saudi is in desperate economic trouble, when they do finally decide to raise the price I have no doubt Iran chooses to stick it to them by ramping up sales at, if anything, an even lower price.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The Iranian Goverment is still fairly extreme but the people themselves arnt, as a branch of Islam the Shia are a lot easier to deal with and most Iranians still pride themselves on being more advanced and western, they look down on 'Arabs' with utter disdain.

I think you're painting with tool large of a brush. The attitudes of the Iranians are extremely diverse. In the major cities you'll find a well educated and often progressive population. In the rural areas, you'll find huge areas where illiteracy is common and the support for the government/religion is total. There are certainly large portions of the population that are against the government, as evidenced by the protests a few years ago. However, the majority of the population still supports the government.

Your sample size here is going to be extremely biased, as it will be composed largely of people who have fled the Ayatollahs.

Edit: To add to this, just as the attitudes/people vary in Iran, they also vary in Arab countries too. Major cities like Amman, Cairo, Tripoli, etc.. will all have large progressive and educated populations. It doesn't make dealing with the conservative and/or totalitarian elements in power any less difficult.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by blankall

I think you're painting with tool large of a brush. The attitudes of the Iranians are extremely diverse. In the major cities you'll find a well educated and often progressive population. In the rural areas, you'll find huge areas where illiteracy is common and the support for the government/religion is total. There are certainly large portions of the population that are against the government, as evidenced by the protests a few years ago. However, the majority of the population still supports the government.

Your sample size here is going to be extremely biased, as it will be composed largely of people who have fled the Ayatollahs.

But isn't most of the iranian population now located in their major urban centres? I honestly don't know off hand but I seem to recall reading that several (10?) years ago. I would imagine if it was the case then, it's even more pronounced now.

As a nation, Iran has a much longer and stronger history of secularism than many of their Arab neighbours, especially those of Saudi origin.

a 'regime change' in Iran and in saudi arabia would look starkly different as result.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

Not only are they on the council, they hold the head chair.

Disband the ****ing UN already.

Originally Posted by Ducay

Yes Saudi Arabia is appalling in their practices and shouldn't be on the council at all, but what you posted is an often misquoted fact that keeps getting perpetuated around the internet.

They just 1 of 47 rotating members of the HR Council. One of their ambassadors was appointed to a 5 member panel that helps vet experts for vacancies in their experts panel. They are not the head of the council, their ambassador is just the head of that panel that has 5 equal voting members, and any expert they were to appoint, would have to be ratified by the HRC at large. So basically no real power.



http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendl...-rights-panel/

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6794801.html

David Cameron has been urged to "come clean" over the role the UK Government played in voting Saudi Arabia on to the UN Human Rights Council after the kingdom's execution of 47 people in a single day sparked outrage across the Middle East.

The leaders of the Liberal Democrat and Green parties have demanded a public inquiry into whether the UK was involved in a secret vote-trading deal in 2013 to secure both countries a place on an influential UN panel.

Diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks last year purported to show that UK initiated the secret negotiations by asking Saudi Arabia for its support.

The exchanges have never been commented on by UK officials. Both Britain and Saudi Arabia were later named among the 47 member states of the UNHRC following the secret ballot.

Once again, this is not a problem with Saudi Arabia, it's a problem with Western governments.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

But isn't most of the iranian population now located in their major urban centres? I honestly don't know off hand but I seem to recall reading that several (10?) years ago. I would imagine if it was the case then, it's even more pronounced now.

As a nation, Iran has a much longer and stronger history of secularism than many of their Arab neighbours, especially those of Saudi origin.

a 'regime change' in Iran and in saudi arabia would look starkly different as result.

I'd definitely agree about the history of Iran. However, a large part of the historically secular population fled as soon as the Ayatollahs got into power.

A large portion of the population in Iran is urban, yes. However, it's not a situation where the entire urban population is opposed to the regime. The polls all show that the majority of Iranians support the current government. Admittedly, the polls may be complete BS and propaganda.

My point is that we are a lot further from seeing the Ayatollahs being toppled than people are letting on. This notion of a hugely secular and progressive population yearning for freedom from the oppressive Ayatollahs doesn't jive with reality. It will take a lot longer before we see some major change in Iran.