Election Prediction Contest

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Weitz

That seems really stupid to me.



How can I support a government that doesn't even hold the most seats?

Seats don't actually count for anything, the only thing that matters is can you get enough votes to pass legislation, particularly if it is a matter of confidence. Give Harper can't and Trudeau can then Trudeau will likely be given a chance to govern.

In practice, most people think the way you're thinking so unless seat counts are close it would be seen as undermining the people's will even though it's technically legal.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Seats don't actually count for anything, the only thing that matters is can you get enough votes to pass legislation, particularly if it is a matter of confidence. Give Harper can't and Trudeau can then Trudeau will likely be given a chance to govern.

In practice, most people think the way you're thinking so unless seat counts are close it would be seen as undermining the people's will even though it's technically legal.

Except there is a convention of how it works.
Harper will, as incumbent PM, visit the Governor General after the results are in and advise the GG on what he should do. The GG is not bound to comply, but there is pretty wording under what circumstances the GG may choose to ignore that advice.
There are two things I think you can safely guarantee:
If the CPC does not have the most seats, Harper will advise the GG to recall Parliament and see if Trudeau has the confidence of the house.

If the CPC has the most seats Harper will advise the GG that he will test the confidence of the house.
I think the GG will follow either request.
It gets interesting when Harper is defeated, resigns, and asks the GG to call a new election. There the GG would likely not comply, and would ask Trudeau (with less seats) to test confidence.

The only reason the play worked with less seats back in the day was the King was acting PM. I doubt that would fly now anyway, but Harper would never try that play anyway.

[#-3]

LIB 161 41%
CPC 112 29%
NDP 60 21%
Grn 2 5%
BLOC 2 3%
Ind 1 1%

Trudeau PM

Just short of Majority

The Greens take a second seat on Vancouver Island, inching closer to legitimacy.
I can't really follow all of the ridings, So I'm going crazy and saying an Independent wins one.

[octothorp]

Not sure what my number predictions are going to be, but in terms of a sleeper, I think Olivia Chow loses her Spadina seat to the Liberals.

[Caged Great]

Popular vote

Liberals - 39.6%
Conservatives - 30.8%
NDP - 18.7%
Green - 4.8%
Bloc - 4.1%

Seat share

Liberals - 182
Conservatives - 93
NDP - 70
Green - 2
Bloc - 1

Minority or Majority - Lib majority

Next PM - Trudeau

Sleeper pick - Mulclair loses his seat.

[Bunk]

Like the provincial election, I'm going to alter my prediction the day before. It appears to me like the Liberal's campaign has the momentum of a runaway freight train. So I think majority now.

Liberal 39.8%
CPC 31.2%
NDP 18.1%
Green 4.4%
Bloc 4.3%

Liberal 177
CPC 105
NDP 53
Bloc 2
Green 1

[evman150]

Liberal 40.4
Conservative 29.6
NDP 19.8
Bloc 5.8
Green 4.4

Liberal 175
Conservative 103
NDP 48
Bloc 10
Green 2

I expect a Liberal majority, and a decent showing for the Bloc.

I also expect my riding (Victoria) to be very very close, but end up giving the Greens another seat.

[Mathgod]

Popular vote

Liberal 39.2%
Conservative 33.8%
NDP 18.0%
BQ 5.5%
Green 2.7%
Other 0.8%

Seat share

Liberal 155
Conservative 125
NDP 51
Bloc 7
Green 0

Minority or Majority Minority

Next PM Trudeau (I can't see Mulcair forming a pact with Harper, but never say never)

Sleeper pick Elizabeth May defeated in Saanich-Gulf Islands as Liberals gobble up all current Green seats

[Looch City]

Popular vote

Liberals - 42%
Conservatives - 30%
NDP - 20%
Green - 4%
Bloc - 4%

Seat share

Liberals - 182
Conservatives - 99
NDP - 57
Green - 1
Bloc - 1

Minority or Majority - Liberal Majority

Next PM - Trudeau

Sleeper pick - Matt Grant, Calgary Confederation

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I'm going with a Liberal Minority.

LPC: 149
CPC: 121
NDP: 58
Bloc: 8
Green: 2

Vote share:

LPC: 39%
CPC: 32%
NDP: 21%
Green: 4%
Bloc: 4%

PM: Trudeau

sleeper pick:

Liberals win Calgary Skyview

[Ducay]

Lib wins most seats and a crazy debate over who is PM ensues.

LPC: 135
CPC: 130
NDP: 64
Bloc: 8
Green: 1

Vote share:

LPC: 37%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 21%
Green: 4%
Bloc: 5%

[c.t.ner]

Popular vote

Liberal 39%
Conservative 32%
NDP 20%
BQ 4%
Green 4%
Other 1%

Seat share

Liberal 175
Conservative 90
NDP 69
Bloc 2
Green 2

Majority Liberals

Next PM JT

Sleeper pick I think Calgary Forrest Lawn goes Liberal Red (as well as Confederation, Skyview and Centre). Calgary-Midnapore (Kenny's riding, ends up being mmmmmmuch closer than anyone expected -40%)

[taco.vidal]

Liberal majority. NDP get creamed and lose many of the seats they had last election.

[Fire]

Popular vote:

LIB 42%
CPC 31%
NDP 19%
BQ 4%
GRN 3%
OTH 1%

Seat share:

LIB - 165
CPC - 105
NDP - 62
GRN - 3
BQ - 3

[shane_c]

Liberal (Minority)
NDP
CPC

[starseed]

Popular vote: Liberals

LIB 37.6%
CPC 33.3%
NDP 18.8%
BQ 5.0%
GRN 4.6%
OTH 0.7%

Seat share:

LIB - 157
CPC - 101
NDP - 74
BQ - 4
GRN - 2


Minority or Majority:

Liberal minority

Next PM:

Justin Trudeau

Sleeper pick:

Liberals sweep all seats but one in all of the territories and maritime provinces except for New Brunswick. That one seat will be one NDP seat in either NFLD or NS.

[Nufy]

Conservative or Liberal Minority Govt...

They bicker like school children and we are doing this all again within a year...

[Slava]

Popular Vote:

Liberals: 40.3%
Conservatives: 29.4%
NDP: 19.7%
Green: 4.8%
BQ: 5.2%
OTH: 0.6%

Seats:

Liberals: 176
Conservatives: 103
NDP: 55
Green: 2
Independent:1
BQ: 0

PM: Justin

Sleeper pick(s): Liberals win 3 in Calgary (Centre, Confederation and Skyview), NDP wins Lethbridge and BQ gets shutout. Greens pickup another seat.

[Zarley]

Popular Vote:

LPC: 38.3%
CPC: 32.1%
NDP: 19.7%
BQ: 5.2%
GPC: 4.0%
OTH: 0.7%

Seats:

LPC: 153
CPC: 121
NDP: 57
BQ: 5
GPC: 1
OTH: 1

PM: Justin

Sleeper pick: Harper makes an ill-fated last ditch effort to hang on to power and form government despite not winning a plurality of seats.

[Nehkara]

Popular vote: LIB 35.3%, CPC 31.9%, NDP 22.8%, GRN 5.1%, BLQ 4.9%.

Seat share: LIB 131, CPC 126, NDP 73, BLQ 6, GRN 2

Minority/Majority: Minority

Next PM: Justin Trudeau

Sleeper: Victoria won by Green Party