Top 300 projected scorers

[RyZ]

Keep in mind that Cullen is a straight up spread sheet watcher. He's one of those guys that doesnt actually watch any hockey but comes with up with all of his analysis based on numbers and analytics. For some, that is what they are looking for, but he certainly isnt a "hockey guy". There are always going to be some funny things that dont really jive with the eye test when reading Cullens work.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Any player could miss 15 games, it's not a predictable thing unless the player has a history with the same type of injury. Giordano's injuries have been freak occurrences for the most part so predicting one is stupid. Does Cullen think Gio is going to suffer a severed achilles tendon or a cracked sternum? What injury specifically does he think he will suffer? Or is it, 'he missed time the last two seasons so he'll likely miss time this season too."? Dumb logic.

I like how Hudler is going to drop 20 points and Monahan and Gaudreau will stay relatively close to last season. Does he foresee Hudler not playing on their line? I could see a 10 point drop but 20 is the literal worst case scenario (without injury). Predicting worst case scenarios is dumb IMO (Gio missing 15 games and Hudler dropping by 20 points are exactly that) but I see he doesn't apply that logic to his Oiler projections...

Hudler has played what 6-8 seasons in the NHL? He eclipsed his previous career points by 19 last year. Is it really that disingenuous to suggest he may regress?

Gio hasn't played more than 64 games in any of the last 3 full seasons.

I don't think either suggestion is outlandish.

It's like no one has every played fantasy hockey before.

[dissentowner]

Scott Cullen is one of those guys where you wonder how in the hell he ever got a job doing what he is doing.

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

It's reasonable to predict any hockey player will miss 15 games in a season. But why single Gio out when he's never had a nagging injury? Why even guess the amount of games a player will miss anyways?

I just think this top 300 scoring projections list is nothing more than one mans guess with a whole lot of bias sprinkled in. Take it with a grain of salt.

I think the answer is quite obvious; because he missed 15+ games in each of the last 2 years and is only getting older.
Any "expert" worth his salt should take previous injuries into consideration.

[ScorchyScorch]

Hudler has been buried in the depth of the red wings for the majority of his career. Once given the reigns and playing time here, he showed his capabilities by leading the team in scoring in back to back seasons. Since he will be given the same opportunity this season on a line that includes two youngster that in all likelihood will progress to improve upon their previous seasons, it's actually quite odd to suggest Hudler will decline by nearly 20 points. In fact, there's little sense behind it. I think it's iffy he hits 76 points again, but last season wasn't a complete anomaly for him. I think he's capable of sustaining the level of play he's shown and he's in his prime.

Again just another case among many of people doubting the Flames abilities. What else is new?

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Hudler has played what 6-8 seasons in the NHL? He eclipsed his previous career points by 19 last year. Is it really that disingenuous to suggest he may regress?

Gio hasn't played more than 64 games in any of the last 3 full seasons.

I don't think either suggestion is outlandish.

Look at the injuries he has suffered though. You're basically betting he suffers another random injury, there is no pattern other than bad luck. What specific injury does Cullen think Gio will suffer? Has he heard something about his bicep not being 100%? If he had him at 75 games I could see it but he's just assuming the same thing will happen again because there is a two year trend.

With Hudler you have more of a point but I still don't see him dropping by that much if Gaudreau and Hudler put up similar seasons as last year. Do I expect 76 points? No, not in a million years. Do I expect him to get 60-65 if his two linemates put up similar totals as last year? Yes, I think that's more than fair. This isn't the same Hudler playing 15 minutes a game in Detroit or the one who played on historically bad Flames teams in 12/13 and 13/14. He's also playing for a new contract as an impending UFA, I just don't see him regressing that much.

Let me ask you a question: In your opinion what is the least we can expect from Hudler, barring injury? If your answer is 55 points, then Cullen is making a dumb prediction, as it's based on old, irrelevent data as his situation has clearly changed. I think it would be smart to take the low end AND the high end and throw them both out the window. Pick the middle, that is what a non-biased writer would do when making projections. Unless there are actual reasons to assume the worst, why would you?

Cullen is assuming the worst case scenario for the Flames while predicting the best case scenario for the Oilers, that much is obvious. It's not a big deal, he's just a bit of a hack, that's all.

[Five-hole]

It's kind of funny -- even in predictions about the two franchises and their players, the Flames are "always earned never given" and the Oilers are "always given never earned". It seems like it would take 3+ WCF appearances in a row for people to take the Flames seriously, yet every time the Oilers draft a shiny new toy they're on the verge of incredible success. Literally all available evidence points in the opposite directions, and yet, here we are.

Seriously can't wait for the annual Oilers "who will we draft next year" circa November 1st.

[Five-hole]

I'm so tired of the "Flames can't score" and "Oilers are offensive juggernaut" narrative I compiled this list. Since the lockout, in 10 seasons of NHL hockey, the Flames have outscored the Oilers in 7 of those seasons. The Oilers have finished in the top half of NHL teams in scoring two times in 10 years, finishing 11th and 14th. Meanwhile they have three 26th overall finishes, a 28th overall finish, and a 30th overall finish in offensive production. That is to say, the Oilers have been in the bottom 5 in goals for in HALF of the seasons since the lockout-cancelled season.

Meanwhile the Flames have been in the top 10 in scoring four times, including last season, where they finished 8th. The Oilers finished 26th last season.

But by all means, continue to project the Oilers scoring a bajilliion goals and the Flames struggling to score, Scott Cullen. I know how much actual data means to you.

Data:

Season Flames GF Flames GF Pos Oilers GF Oilers GF Pos.  
 2014-2015 241 8th 198 26th  
 2013-2014 209 22nd 203 26th  
 2012-2013 128 17th 125 20th  
 2011-2012 202 27th 212 19th  
 2010-2011 250 5th 193 28th  
 2009-2010 204 30th 214 26th  
 2008-2009 254 9th 234 18th  
 2007-2008 229 16th 235 11th  
 2006-2007 258 8th 195 30th  
 2005-2006 218 28th 256 14th

[smiggy77]

wait, how does he know that both Hanzal and Franzen are planning on playing 55 games only? Maybe he got their vacation calendars?

something eerie about this...

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by smiggy77

wait, how does he know that both Hanzal and Franzen are planning on playing 55 games only? Maybe he got their vacation calendars?

something eerie about this...

Isn't Franzen basically retired at this point? Not officially because he want his money but I thought it was pretty well understood that he's very unlikely to ever play again.

[calgaryblood]

Didn't Cullen predict Gaudreau's point total last year? Or come very close?

[heep223]

Originally Posted by calgaryblood

Didn't Cullen predict Gaudreau's point total last year? Or come very close?

Yes, yes he did. I think he predicted 62 points IIRC and as someone mentioned above, he was taking significant heat on it because he had Gaudreau above RNH.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

I'm so tired of the "Flames can't score" and "Oilers are offensive juggernaut" narrative I compiled this list. Since the lockout, in 10 seasons of NHL hockey, the Flames have outscored the Oilers in 7 of those seasons. The Oilers have finished in the top half of NHL teams in scoring two times in 10 years, finishing 11th and 14th. Meanwhile they have three 26th overall finishes, a 28th overall finish, and a 30th overall finish in offensive production. That is to say, the Oilers have been in the bottom 5 in goals for in HALF of the seasons since the lockout-cancelled season.

Meanwhile the Flames have been in the top 10 in scoring four times, including last season, where they finished 8th. The Oilers finished 26th last season.

But by all means, continue to project the Oilers scoring a bajilliion goals and the Flames struggling to score, Scott Cullen. I know how much actual data means to you.

Data:

Season Flames GF Flames GF Pos Oilers GF Oilers GF Pos.  
 2014-2015 241 8th 198 26th  
 2013-2014 209 22nd 203 26th  
 2012-2013 128 17th 125 20th  
 2011-2012 202 27th 212 19th  
 2010-2011 250 5th 193 28th  
 2009-2010 204 30th 214 26th  
 2008-2009 254 9th 234 18th  
 2007-2008 229 16th 235 11th  
 2006-2007 258 8th 195 30th  
 2005-2006 218 28th 256 14th

Don't be absurd. The Oilers are clearly on track to score at least a brazillion goals.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Don't be absurd. The Oilers are clearly on track to score at least a brazillion goals.

Is that like scoring as many goals as Robyn Regehr had points in his career (the only Brazilian-born NHLer)?


If it is, they failed to achieve that last season (Regehr retired with 199 points in his career, and the Oilers scored 193 goals last season).

[T@T]

Cullen is #2 on TSN's idiot list, last year he had the oilers higher power ranked than the flames at xmas. and of course the annual rant on "who's going to score on the flames."

Complete tool.

[Tinordi]

Wow such tribal vitriol and outrage. It's possible for people to have realistic or pessimistic projections for the flames or to think that the best prospect since Crosby will have a good season without being haters, idiots or hacks.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Wow such tribal vitriol and outrage. It's possible for people to have realistic or pessimistic projections for the flames or to think that the best prospect since Crosby will have a good season without being haters, idiots or hacks.

I could care less about the shiny new toy in Edmonton as that usually takes care of itself around dec 1st, but every single year it's a pessimistic projection from this idiot and every single year he's proven wrong..tiring seeing the Toronto Sports Network always poop on the flames.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Wow such tribal vitriol and outrage. It's possible for people to have realistic or pessimistic projections for the flames or to think that the best prospect since Crosby will have a good season without being haters, idiots or hacks.

And contrariwise, it is also possible for people to have realistic or pessimistic projections for the Flames or to think that the best prospect since Crosby will have a good season, AND to be haters, idiots, and hacks.

We've known for years that Cullen is a twit. That isn't vitriol and outrage, that's familiarity due to long observation – followed by laughing at him, and being annoyed with TSN for continuing to give him a platform to yawp from.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by calgaryblood

Didn't Cullen predict Gaudreau's point total last year? Or come very close?

When you predict the point totals for 300 players, you're probably going to get some right

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

When you predict the point totals for 300 players, you're probably going to get some right

And you're probably going to get a lot wrong. It's probably one of the more difficult things to predict. Either way why would you care if he is right or wrong? These predicitions litterally mean NOTHING.