Calgary residential construction

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by J pold

Why do you say this?

Like many other large builders, The Cardel product is suspect.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by J pold

Why do you say this?

I haven't found any confirmation, but I've heard rumour that due to the CRA vs Cardel issue, that the CRA has placed a lien on every single piece of land that Cardel owns.

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

I haven't found any confirmation, but I've heard rumour that due to the CRA vs Cardel issue, that the CRA has placed a lien on every single piece of land that Cardel owns.

Really?

Will have to ask a few questions on this tomorrow.

To be honest...I hope this is true...they truly are a scum builder.

[J pold]

Some people take the commercial real estate market as a lead indicator to where the residential market is going. The thought process is as companies take up more space, they hire more people, those people get jobs and buy homes. The opposite being companies shedding (subleasing) space, which means lay-offs, and those people can no longer afford their homes.

Right now the commercial real estate market in Calgary is in the absolute tank with companies subleasing left, right and centre. Tough times in the real estate market all around.

[polak]

Pfft. Worley Parsons 12,432,523,543 offices entering the market alone could crash the the Calgary RE market.

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by J pold

Some people take the commercial real estate market as a lead indicator to where the residential market is going. The thought process is as companies take up more space, they hire more people, those people get jobs and buy homes. The opposite being companies shedding (subleasing) space, which means lay-offs, and those people can no longer afford their homes.

Right now the commercial real estate market in Calgary is in the absolute tank with companies subleasing left, right and centre. Tough times in the real estate market all around.

The scary thing is that it is possible that "absolute tank" may have a way too go. I for one do not believe that oil prices are going to recover anytime soon and this is why,

1) We no longer have a low cost body (OPEC) that is willing to manipulate the price oil within a given range, providing a stable market.

2) Even if OPEC agreed to do this again no one would trust them.

3) It appears that no other region has the ability to do this.

4) Meaning that oil has just become another commodity with the pricing set based on supply and demand.

5) The spent well technology is in it's infancy and will eventually be used worldwide.

6) Get used to $50 or less oil for a very long time.

[J pold]

Originally Posted by polak

Pfft. Worley Parsons 12,432,523,543 offices entering the market alone could crash the the Calgary RE market.

Not sure what you mean by this. Worley is a client of ours and we subleased a large portion of their space last year. They are hurting and shedding space but not at a pace any faster than other comparable EPCs.

[Travis Munroe]

Edit - nvm

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I had to go back and look at the posters to confirm it is 1 poster with the majority of the posts. Perhaps you missed the thread that this topic has been widely debated. That said, if you did miss it - 6 months ago we had numerous posters calling for a ultimate crash which was just around the corner.
After a personal best start to 2015 - I can assure those who are on CP and have used my services, you are not the only one who is buying.
In fact, I just got home from showing properties and we were supposed to view 6 new listings. 3 of them went conditionally sold before we could get in.
Point is, no one knows exactly what will happen but I feel I need to give a voice of optimism to those who have purchased. This goes for new construction and re-sale.

I guess if the "doom & gloom" crowd hangs onto that theory long enough, they will be able to say they were right at some point in the next decade. As for right now, many who predicted 20+ % corrections in the very near future (half a year ago) could not possibly be any further off.

Edit: And I expect at least 1 person to say that I am a Realtor so what else am I going to say. Before saying such, do realize that it is often easier for me to make a living in a down market

I think it's great that you are going to make an easy living in a down market cuz that is where we are heading.

Nothing wrong with the glass is half full.

And, yes it's true you are just a realtor and what else can you say or believe in?

Hopefully 7 and 3 also corrects.

Sorry man, I'm sure you are a great guy....I just don't care for realtors.

[Travis Munroe]

nvm - save it for the other thread.

[Mr.Coffee]

my random musings:

-if price of oil stays at $50, the cost side will correct impacting economics in the market and oil and gas will find a way to be profitable again.

-new communities are getting pretty far out with no clear timeline on other supportive infrastructure like Ctrain or schools. If I buy a house today, it's built my next year, and school is built????????????????????? not clear in any scenario and even in event school is finally built anywhere remotely close, it'll be packed beyond comprehension / lottery to get in

-per above, a guy like me working downtown will spend 90% of his life commuting

-prices have not dropped. My wife and I are in the market potentially for a new home in a community like this, but at the price point for what you get it just is not worth it, and not even really close to be honest. These builders are out to lunch in my opinion. Last summer when we visited a show home they were sure to suggest to lock in before prices continued to rise. I wondered if it was mostly acid or just crystal meth that their sellers used.

I'm sorry but these homes are not worth what they're trying to sell them for.

[Incogneto]

Personally, I don't feel bad about this at all. The city has been raped buy builders building 'out' for about 25 years too long. The city, imo, is on the right track when they talk about multi-family, and 'building up'. We don't need to be supporting the new communities outside the ring road anymore. It's just too much damn sprawl, and unsustainable.

I guess the suburb communities are the corsi of real estate.

[Ace]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Personally, I don't feel bad about this at all. The city has been raped buy builders building 'out' for about 25 years too long. The city, imo, is on the right track when they talk about multi-family, and 'building up'. We don't need to be supporting the new communities outside the ring road anymore. It's just too much damn sprawl, and unsustainable.

I guess the suburb communities are the corsi of real estate.

This is what is going to keep the prices high, so ultimately the consumer and Calgarians pay the price/enjoy the property value. When developers can go at whatever pace they want we get a flood of lot inventory and that keeps prices down.

The current situation is essentially pushing the sprawl to other municipalities (Airdrie, Cochrane, Okotoks, and so on). I guess this is bad for new home buyers if you want to live in the city. But it is making city living more valuable for existing home owners.

Sprawl is not really disappearing, it's just keeping the city of Calgary from maintaining it.

Since I own a home in Calgary, it's a good strategy for me, but if I was trying to get into the city for the first time I would find this very frustrating.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by bysutter

The scary thing is that it is possible that "absolute tank" may have a way too go. I for one do not believe that oil prices are going to recover anytime soon and this is why,

1) We no longer have a low cost body (OPEC) that is willing to manipulate the price oil within a given range, providing a stable market.

2) Even if OPEC agreed to do this again no one would trust them.

3) It appears that no other region has the ability to do this.

4) Meaning that oil has just become another commodity with the pricing set based on supply and demand.

5) The spent well technology is in it's infancy and will eventually be used worldwide.

6) Get used to $50 or less oil for a very long time.

this made my brain hurt.

When has oil not been a commodity with its price set by supply and demand?

What is spent well technology?

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy

this made my brain hurt.

When has oil not been a commodity with its price set by supply and demand?

What is spent well technology?

OPEC has been controlling the price of oil for some time, their refusal to continue play the game (for whatever reason) has us where we are right now. What we are seeing now is not a manipulated market but a free market that will be dictated by supply and demand. For most economies lower energy cost is a good thing, not so much for us feedstock selling hillbillies that have no economy other than oil and gas.

Spent well technology means that because of technology we are able to squeeze more out of what was considered to be a non-producing asset (spent). As this technology gets better ("found oil") chances are that we are looking at more supply than is needed, supply is greater than demand means lower prices.

[bysutter]

- "if price of oil stays at $50, the cost side will correct impacting economics in the market and oil and gas will find a way to be profitable again"

The only way that costs come down is if the cost of living comes down. This has to happen but could be a long cycle. The big problem with this city is it has just 2 speeds, it is either full on go or full on stop and has nothing in the middle. we are basically a bunch of wildcatters.

[rohara66]

Do you own a home bysutter?

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by rohara66

Do you own a home bysutter?

I do, one in Oakridge and one in Innisfail.

[RogerWilco]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I have a friend who works for a small builder and he's at 5 sales this year compared to 50 at this time last year. Prices don't seem to be dropping though and the investors I work with are having some success with their flips.

If a builder has 50 sales in a year how exactly do you qualify them as "small"?

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by RogerWilco

If a builder has 50 sales in a year how exactly do you qualify them as "small"?

Because Cardel does over a thousand a year.