[News] Sens, Flames trying to 'outrun probability': Stinson

[Stormchaser]

I agree that the Flames have had their fair share of fortunate bounces but what the media often over looks are the stats that aren't recorded that win hockey games. One of the best wins this season was before Christmas when we came back against LA and Gio willed himself to the net and scores on Quick in overtime. There is no stat for that...but the Flames have heart and determination in spades. Rick and Kelly mentioned it yesterday that there is also no stat for how many times a guy like Bouma hobbles off the ice.

I'm an optimist so I see this team at least maintaining its current pace into next year or likely improving. In fact, around December 2013 they started playing "well above their heads"...its just too large of a sample size now to chalk it up to "good luck".

[CliffFletcher]

The national media have been gushing about the Flames for most of the year. The narrative that the media hate the Flames is dumb.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Sounds about wrong.
Just says we told you so

You really think Flames fans will be any different if we make the playoffs?

[Igster]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The national media have been gushing about the Flames for most of the year. The narrative that the media hate the Flames is dumb.

Not sure people are "hating" on the media. To me, this is about looking at stats and numbers and not actually watching the games and then writing an article based on that. More like disliking sloppy journalism than anything else.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

You really think Flames fans will be any different if we make the playoffs?

I get Calgary has been lucky. I get this can't continue. I think Flames fans know this - that they have to be much better.
I simply don't agree that the Flames not making it justifies the not sustainable toe tag on the season.
They will have just ran short - just not quite good enough, like lots of other teams.

[Igottago]

Its just a lazy way of analyzing the Flames success this year. "We thought they'd be in last place, but they might actually make the playoffs -- must be a fluke...blah blah blah corsi, blah blah shot differential, blah blah".

I'd like to ask this guy what the probability is that a bad team flukes out for the entirety of a season, 82 games and and 6 months. I'm not mathematician but I think the chances of sustaining luck over that period of time is pretty unlikely. Sure, maybe a run of 10-20 games, but almost an entire season in, you have to give the team credit for just being pretty good.

[RM14]

Have we done that "unusually well" in OT & shootouts? I was able to find our shootout record which is only 4-3. What's the OT win loss?

[SportsJunky]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Sounds about wrong.
Just says we told you so

You're probably right. I was just referring to the theory that it isn't sustainable or at least it shouldn't be. Yet here they are, in the thick of things. That's what I mean by defying the odds. They have already had an improbably good season and I hope it can continue.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by rm14

have we done that "unusually well" in ot & shootouts? I was able to find our shootout record which is only 4-3. What's the ot win loss?

9-4

Teams with better records:

Islanders 6-1
Anaheim 8-2
Nashville 8-3

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

You're probably right. I was just referring to the theory that it isn't sustainable or at least it shouldn't be. Yet here they are, in the thick of things. That's what I mean by defying the odds. They have already had an improbably good season and I hope it can continue.

Agree completely

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The national media have been gushing about the Flames for most of the year. The narrative that the media hate the Flames is dumb.

Agreed, most hockey media has turned the corner and gives the organization due credit.

This was the first season in years I stopped hearing about how good Edmonton was going to be and started hearing about how good the Flames currently are and will be moving forward.

[FlamesAddiction]

Too bad there is no statistical metric for fitness or adaptable coaching.

While I agree that the Flames can't expect consistent results by falling behind in many statistical categories, way too much emphasis gets put on certain stats.

The Flames are one of the youngest teams in the NHL (as are the Sens). Improvements will come in those areas as the teams grow.

[sa226]

The Flames have actually been media darlings this year, which is great. Its just that for the most part they refuse to say that they are actually a pretty good team. The media chooses to go the "over achieving" or advanced stats route when discussing them.

Its those within the game, coaches, scouts, GMs that are actually admitting that this is a pretty good team. And not wanting to face them in the playoffs.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Bingo

there's plenty to think about yet this season, but I'm certainly curious to how the Flames look next year. The team will change sure ... guys will go, Bennett in, trades, UFA signings,etc

But how different will this team play next year? Will be a big curiosity in and out of Calgary.

This is strictly subjective but it seems since the Iginla trade this team has been trending up. They lost a ton of one goal games last year which they have built upon and won this year. Their game is still incredibly shaky as the advanced stats show, and this has resulted in the need for a bunch of 3rd period comebacks. This team has learned to win as a group and not looking to one man to do it. The foundation is there.

With that said, they have been very lucky in some ways. All those 3rd period comebacks may dry up next year. So they maybe where they are were last year, next year. A team trying but not getting that key goal at key times.

To your point, total crapshoot. However, I look at it this way. No matter how high we finish, we have a top 5 draft pick coming next year and a top defenceman coming in. Those are huge pluses.

I think the balance of odds says this team is better next year. How much, no way to know. However, this team has been built and most importantly coached right. The foundation is there, and I think we won't be talking about the media calling the Flames fluke next year, they'll start to see what we see. A skilled team with grit on its way up.

[Robo]

articles like this are starting to get really old it seems that when these "experts" run out of things to write they just copy and paste the last article about the flames and advanced statistics

[troutman]

Who can put a Bob face on Han?

[heep223]

Next season you will not see very many pundits predicting that the Flames will finish in the basement, poor Corsi or not.

We have Bennett coming in, a good young base of F prospects continuing to gain experience and young promising goalies coming up. We don't need vets to continue to have career years every season to continue improving.

[Vulcan]

I look at this team as one who scores mostly off the rush and isn't very good at cycling. Last night three of our goals were off the rush and one from cycling. I won't count the EN goal. Scoring off the rush isn't a good way of racking up shots (lousy Corsi) but it doesn't say we are a poor team, in fact it says we are a skilled team and considering our lack of size, this is the way we need to play to have success. With the play last night of our 3rd and 4th line controlling the boards, we show promise of being more well rounded.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Offensive article.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

6th in goals for per game.
15th in goals against per game.
16th in F/A 5 on 5 ratio.
14th in PP%
21st in PK%
28th in SF/G
11th in SA/G
9th in Goal differential

15th in the NHL pretty much aligns with almost all their stats. The goalies have average Sv% numbers for starters, and there's been some inconsistency in net this year. The only outliers to our spot in the standings are the goals for compared to the shots generated, but this comes down to style of play and taking high percentage shots.

We are nothing like the Senators. They are much, much worse defensively.