Building a Contender: Flames Asset Management

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Gio turns 32 this off-season.

When he turns into a pumpkin, we have TJ Brodie, and a whole lot of nothing else for the first pairing.

Give Bennett a year to adjust to the NHL, a sophomore year that could go either way, and then a 3rd year to really cut his teeth and establish himself as a 1C. Monahan will be 23, Gaudreau will be 24, Backlund will be 28, our forwards will be at the age where they're ready to take it to the next level.

At which point Giordano will be 35, and winding down his career. He'll still be in the NHL, but he's not going to be the top-pairing anchor of a Stanley Cup contender.

We need to find a top-pair defenceman, and we need him ASAP.

Yea the Flames and several other teams are looking for the same thing. I dunno how you're gonna find him ASAP since we have a top pair right now and the new guy wouldn't play on the top pair.

[Lanny_McDonald]

The Flames have a couple really good but under rated defensive prospects playing in college right now. People have mentioned Hickey, but don't discount Gilmour. Kid reminds me of Giordano when he was the same age. I think you'll see Hickey, Gilmour, Rafikov, Wotherspoon and Culkin end up playing in the NHL. There may be a cup of coffee guy in the mix from the other defensive prospects, but having seen these guys play makes me believe they have the tools to play in the NHL.

[Monahan23]

I think we should draft BPA in the first round but draft defence-men in the 2nd and 3rd round. I don't think we should trade any of our defence-men because they're hard to predict and the hit their stride later.

I'd also like to see a forward prospect traded for a defence-man. Granlund/Baertschi for a defence-man similar or Reinhart for a similar defence-man.

Also does anyone know if Poirier has played LW or RW in Adiorndack? I know he went back in forth in junior. I also feel like Klimchuk and Agostino could be tried out on the right. Klimchuk is a versatile player and I feel he could transition. Agostino played on the right a bit last year.

The two things that I'm really glad the Flames value are I.Q and Character. You look at a lot of teams having trouble with this, mainly the Leafs. Even our top level prospects and draftees, Monahan, Bennett, Poirier, Gaudreau. All smart players and all great character players. It's very nice to see an organization honour those two traits which are the two biggest things you should look at for a prospect.

The last thing I'll say is that we have great depth in our prospect pool. Culkin, Kulak, Gilmour, Hickey, Rafikov and Adam Ollas Mattsson. A lot of them have huge offensive upside and picking Gilmour, Rafikov and AOM are fantastic late picks. I had AOM ranked close to Hickey before the draft, every time I see Gilmour or Rafikov I'm very impressed. Rafikov uses his body well and has a huge shot from the point and can move the puck. Gilmour has a high ice q and can move the puck very well. His defence is getting better and better each game.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Gio turns 32 this off-season.

When he turns into a pumpkin, we have TJ Brodie, and a whole lot of nothing else for the first pairing.

Give Bennett a year to adjust to the NHL, a sophomore year that could go either way, and then a 3rd year to really cut his teeth and establish himself as a 1C. Monahan will be 23, Gaudreau will be 24, Backlund will be 28, our forwards will be at the age where they're ready to take it to the next level.

At which point Giordano will be 35, and winding down his career. He'll still be in the NHL, but he's not going to be the top-pairing anchor of a Stanley Cup contender.

We need to find a top-pair defenceman, and we need him ASAP.

Wotherspoon was a +5 tonight with two assists... He's 3-5 years out from his potential still, and you never know.. he's had a good career projection so far.

[Flashpoint]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Eh, he can be a #2. Brodie is already good enough to be a #1 on many teams, and is rapidly improving beside Gio.


Lest we forget:

Nik Lidstrom was 38 when the Red Wings last won the cup.
Nik Lidstrom was 39 when the Red Wings last made the final.
Nik Lidstrom was 41 when he last won the Norris Trophy.

Lidstrom was one of the greatest defensemen ever. You can't use him as a comparable. He was playing half the frigging game.

[Jay Random]

OK, how about Niedermayer and Pronger? Both were still top-pairing defencemen at age 35. Neither was a Lidstrom, but both were at least in the conversation for best defenceman in the NHL – just as Giordano is now.

[Calgary4LIfe]

The Flames are missing that 'high pedigree blue chip' defensive prospect. However, I don't think you necessarily need it in order to find one, and drafting one doesn't guarantee anything either.

Defencemen are so very tough to predict as to how they will develop. I thought for sure Pelech (though you can argue he was a disappointing and surprise pick in the first round) was a guy who would DEFINITELY be an NHL regular. Probably in the top 4 as a gritty defensive defencemen, but at least on the bottom pairing without a doubt. Leach was a 2nd rounder, and I thought was a great value pick there. He didn't progress and Flames decided not to even offer him a contract. Negrin was definitely a "can't miss" for sure NHL'er I thought - but then his knee problems (IIRC) pretty much squashed his NHL ceiling. That was 1 first round pick and 2 second round picks right there. Even more to the point - the Flames were still considered a fairly good team at developing defencemen. Maybe not the defencemen factory that a couple of other teams were, but they were recognized as being a good team organizationally at drafting and developing defencemen.

I will not say any of the current prospects are 'locks'. A few will absolutely fail. A few will probably surprise. I think the talent level and depth on defencemen for Calgary is very underrated - I think they are 'average' actually, maybe even slightly better than average. They are missing that high pedigree draft pick, but if history tells us anything, it is that defencemen as a whole are very difficult to predict.

I will not be surprised if a current defencemen or two end up developing into top-pairing material. I will also not be shocked to see a few bust - even amongst the most 'sure' things. I do like the depth, and I also like the variety with that depth. I think I posted this before in another thread:

Puck movers (and no, they are not in any specific order):
Kulak
Wotherspoon
Culkin
Gilmour
Hickey
Roy

Defensive Defencemen:
Sieloff
Ollas-Mattsson
Kanzig
Ramage

Rafikov I find a little difficult to throw him into one group or the other. He seems like the most 'complete' defencemen in the organization in terms of being a puck mover and having that offensive talent, but also being a very gritty and hard to play against defensive presence.

Guys in the 'defensive defencemen' aren't necessarily bad at making decisions with the puck. I don't think you can be a defensive defencemen in the NHL any longer without being able to move the puck. They may not have the skills that the puck movers do, but they are all able to make a decent first pass out of the zone.

I can't look at that list and state with any certainty that 'x' prospect is going to bust, and that 'x' prospect is going to be something really special. At this point, nothing will surprise me either way. I just think that the Flames have a top 4 that is young enough (Russel and Brodie definitely, and Wideman and Giordano are NOT aging vets that need to be replaced within the next season or two!). I think there is enough 'potential' on the farm to see guys replaced (or perhaps, even pushed out) by upcoming prospects. I think some will definitely bust, but I do think that some will surprise. It is an underrated group.

[djsFlames]

Giordano has only just begun to hit his stride in his career. I see 3-4 years of solid, top pairing quality of play from him yet.

Hopefully in 3 years we have a player of Brodie's current caliber ready to step into Gio's shoes in the following season or two.

I have a feeling Hickey or Rafikov could be darkhorse D prospects that may amount to top 4 d-men.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

^ I totally agree with what you're saying, but <b>35 isn't old for a defenseman.</b>

Yes, it is.

There are 19 defencemen in the NHL aged 35 and over. Only a handful of them are top-pairing.

There are 4 NHL defencemen over the age of 37. None of them are top pairing.

That's 'The Wall', right there.

Giordano has 3-5 years left in the NHL, and that's something we should come to terms with sooner rather than later.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Yes, it is.

There are 19 defencemen in the NHL aged 35 and over.

There are 4 NHL defencemen over the age of 37.

The Wall is real, and that's where it is.

Giordano has 3-5 years left in the NHL, and thays sonething we shoukd come to terms with that sooner rather than later.

If you are elite, your career lasts longer. Yes.. most guys like Ladislav Smid are gone by the time they are 35. But guys who win or compete for Norris trophies last longer.

Taking out the guys who play are still young and playing:
Chara 37
Niedermayer retired at 36 and could have easily kept playing if he wanted to.
MacInnis retired at 40
Blake retired at 40
Leetch retired at 37
Chelios retired at 48
Bourque retired at 40
Coffee retried at 39

And most of those guys were still productive when they retired, just had enough of it (Bourque had 59 points in his last year for example)

[BACKCHECK!!!]

There is usually one old or two old defencemen in the NHL who play at a high level.

It is a plainly terrible idea to make plans around the assumption that your guy us going to be the one who bucks that trend.

I can name a pile of wingers who were still good past 40. Making future plans around 40+ year old wingers is still absolutely silly. .

[combustiblefuel]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If you are elite, your career lasts longer. Yes.. most guys like Ladislav Smid are gone by the time they are 35. But guys who win or compete for Norris trophies last longer.

Taking out the guys who play are still young and playing:
Chara 37
Niedermayer retired at 36 and could have easily kept playing if he wanted to.
MacInnis retired at 40
Blake retired at 40
Leetch retired at 37
Chelios retired at 48
Bourque retired at 40
Coffee retried at 39

And most of those guys were still productive when they retired, just had enough of it (Bourque had 59 points in his last year for example)

That was a totally different era of NHL that those men played in . The exception is Chara who is noticeably heading down hill.

[OzSome]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

This organization has serious issues with consistently developing D-men.

That was because previous management went for a size no matter how much skills they have. Some of them turned out to be a bust and some didn't really start playing well until they are older. Lately they've been drafting combinations of size, skills and characters. Those players are not fully developed yet so we don't know how good are they going to be. Of all the positions in hockey, defensemen are the toughest to gauge and goaltender is next. Some defensemen are late bloomers but there are others who are just plain good even when they are young. Those are the exceptions.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

There is usually one old or two old defencemen in the NHL who play at a high level.

It is a plainly terrible idea to make plans around the assumption that your guy us going to be the one who bucks that trend.

I can name a pile of wingers who were still good past 40. Making future plans around 40+ year old wingers is still absolutely silly. .

Those are the Norris winners since 1984 excluding the guys who are still younger and playing (Subban, Karlsson and Keith)

[Red Menace]

Not sure where to post this, but asset management is my topic..

Just wondering what the Flames are going to do with the glut of Forwards for next season?
8 Regulars have contracts; (Gaudreau, Monahan, Hudler, Jones, Colborne, Raymond, Bollig, Stajan)
1 semi-regular is signed: (Granlund)
3 regulars are RFA's surely to be signed: (Backlund, Bouma, Jooris)
1 other regular is an RFA who may be signed (Byron)
2 signed prospects very likely to win a spot on roster (Bennett, Poirier)
5 other RFA's who've had a touch of the NHL (Baertschi, Shore,Wolf, Ferland, Reinhart,)
1 UFA who may be signed (Glencross)

In total that is 21 forwards.
I expect Glencross to move on, but the other 20 guys are likely to be signed, and all have a pretty good claim on getting an NHL roster spot (with exception of Reinhart I guess?)

Can we really go another year with keeping all those young guys in the minors?
I know there will be injuries, and depth is a good thing to have, etc etc....but at some point we have to make way for these guys...
I'd sure like to see some moves now or in off season to weed out some of those vets.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Those are the Norris winners since 1984 excluding the guys who are still younger and playing (Subban, Karlsson and Keith)

Uh huh.

Name the first-pairing NHL defencemen over the age of 37 in the NHL right now.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Not sure where to post this, but asset management is my topic..

Just wondering what the Flames are going to do with the glut of Forwards for next season?
8 Regulars have contracts; (Gaudreau, Monahan, Hudler, Jones, Colborne, Raymond, Bollig, Stajan)
1 semi-regular is signed: (Granlund)
3 regulars are RFA's surely to be signed: (Backlund, Bouma, Jooris)
1 other regular is an RFA who may be signed (Byron)
2 signed prospects very likely to win a spot on roster (Bennett, Poirier)
5 other RFA's who've had a touch of the NHL (Baertschi, Shore,Wolf, Ferland, Reinhart,)
1 UFA who may be signed (Glencross)

In total that is 21 forwards.
I expect Glencross to move on, but the other 20 guys are likely to be signed, and all have a pretty good claim on getting an NHL roster spot (with exception of Reinhart I guess?)

I will be surprised if Byron is re-signed, there's a reason he only got a 1-year contract last season. Glencross probably doesn't get re-signed either (although it wouldn't shock me either).

That leaves us with:
Gaudreau, Monahan, Hudler, Jones, Colborne, Raymond, Stajan, Backlund, Bouma, Jooris, Bollig. 11 players. 12th spot probably for the best rookie (Bennett presumably).

This would be pretty much the same as last summers situation, and it's turned out fine. No freebies for anyone, but the low hanging fruits (Bollig, Stajan) are pretty low really.

I also think you're getting ahead of things in saying those prospects have good claims on NHL spots.

Baertchi looked better in his last callup, but hardly impressive. Shore hasn't shown us anything yet. Reinhart looked far from ready when he was called up, and Ferland wasn't much better. Wolf still needs to learn some pretty basic stuff. Granlund was okay, but nothing to get excited about. They might very well leave Poirier in the AHL to grow, he's still very young. And there is a chance that Bennett will struggle to find his game after the surgery. Sometimes it goes like that.

So basically I feel we're set up pretty nicely. We should get new players to the team, but we don't have to bring up anyone who isn't ready.