NHL.com will start tracking "advanced" stats

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by driveway

I just hope the NHL takes the opportunity to rename the stats. It's been entertaining to talk about Corsi and Fenwick, but I'd way rather something descriptive like Shot Attempts and Shot Attempts minus Blocks.

And PDO I feel obliged to dislike as it's named after the username of an Oiler fan on a messageboard. I don't really care what the NHL calls it so long as it's descriptive. "Cumulative Percentages" or "Shooting and Save Percentage."

Yeah. I think other performance over time metrics such as GAA or shooting % would have more negative perceptions if they were named after the person who created them, rather than having descriptive names.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Keep the names, they are homages to the early pioneers of this analysis.

Yes, let's not forget pioneers like some dumbass with the handle PDO in an Oilers online community. Or this riveting tale about how Corsi honors a mustache.

Originally Posted by Bob Mackenzie, Hockey Confidential

Wait a minute. Was Ferrari actually saying Corsi became Corsi because he liked the look of Jim Corsi’s picture, especially his moustache, on the Sabre website and the sound of his surname?
That’s exactly what Ferrari was saying.
“I always prepared myself (that if the stat became well known) – hey, it was just a small group of nerds talking hockey – that eventually (Jim) Corsi or someone would come to me and say, ‘What the hell are you guys talking about and why are you (using my name)?’” Corsi told me. “I figured if it happened, I would apologize and carry on.
“I was really surprised a few years ago when I read a story in USA Today where (Jim) Corsi talked about how the inspiration (for measuring shot attempts) came to him when he was skiing in the Alps, and I thought, ‘(expletive deleted), it came to me when I saw your picture on a website, because I liked your moustache.”
A good story gets even better, though.
Ferrari had no idea back then, or even during our interview in April (until I told him), that Jim Corsi was actually the individual responsible for measuring a goalie’s workload by counting shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots and, therefore, Ferrari’s random naming of Corsi turned out to be oh so fortuitous, that Regier wouldn’t have been talking about it if not for Corsi.
“Oh, I had no idea of that,” Ferrari said. “I just liked his moustache.”
Seriously. You can’t make up this stuff.

The names shouldn't be homages because the homages are meaningless.

[Street Pharmacist]

So it's working now.

4th last in % of scoring chances for with 45% sandwiched network Toronto (3rd last) and Edmonton (5th last)

4th last in scoring chances against per 60 with 28.9

5th last in scoring chances for per 60 with 23.7

[Bandwagon In Flames]

I thought Calgary already proved how useless advanced stats are?

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

I thought Calgary already proved how useless advanced stats are?

People said this last year about Colorado.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

I thought Calgary already proved how useless advanced stats are?

A few teams not following the general trend does not make the stats "useless".

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

People said this last year about Colorado.

And they made the playoffs.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

And they made the playoffs.

And were ousted in the first round relatively easily by a team that finished far lower in the standings.

And they are bad this year.

The goal isn't to just make the playoffs. At least it shouldn't be.

If you flip a coin 5 times and each time it lands heads, does that mean the probability of getting heads each time was not 50%?

[codynw]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

And they made the playoffs.

Yea, but they lost in round one and have been pretty bad so far this season. Varlamov wasn't gonna have a .930SV% forever.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

I thought Calgary already proved how useless advanced stats are?

No, no they didn't. They're not a mirror of the standings, that would be useless. They're simply another way of measuring what is happening on the ice.

I could restate the above as, the flames average 5 less quality shots per game than their opposition. It doesn't prove or disprove anything. I get that we don't like things that cast the flames in a negative light, but that doesn't change things.

The reason the flames are able to win despite bad possession numbers are 2 things IMO:
1. They score on a high percentage of their shots. They don't get more chances in the slot, more from the rush or more rebounds, so that doesn't explain it. I'm not sure why, but this isn't usually sustainable.
2. They block a ridiculous amount of shots. They're in the bottom 5 for shot attempts against, yet top ten in shots against

[Street Pharmacist]

I'd like to add that the comparisons to Toronto and Colorado don't really got the flames as they rely on shot blocking, not save%. Shot blocking is a more reliable strategy that a hot goalie.

Having said that, the end result may not be different

[GioforPM]

I am a little more interested in the trend over the season - whether the Flames improve their stats, regress or are static. That to me is what management looks at - how do you improve the team, not "are we ahead of team X".

[united]

Originally Posted by Jacks

These stats would be a lot better if they somehow took into account the quality of shot. The classic argument is the oilers, they take 40 shots and give up 35 so they win the Corsi battle but 15 of the 35 shots they gave up were prime scoring opportunities while 30+ of the shots they took were from the perimeter.

Originally Posted by Matty81

A team like the oilers have been decent at advanced stats this year but if you watch them, they are prone to several catastrophic defensive collapses a game that render any advantage in shots meaningless.

I've dispelled this myth in numerous threads already this season but it keeps coming up. What "advanced" stats show the Oilers are decent? Seriously, I'd love to know which stats you can quote that show they are decent because I haven't seen any yet.

Originally Posted by Jacks

Also they should take into account teams with a lead. A team that is up 5-1 isn't going to be pressing the offense as much as the other team gambling trying to catch up.

They do already and have been for 5+ years.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I am a little more interested in the trend over the season - whether the Flames improve their stats, regress or are static. That to me is what management looks at - how do you improve the team, not "are we ahead of team X".

They've been pretty static. The current numbers are right where they were after the first few games. The best stretch possession wise was the right game losing streak I believe. Outshooting Buffalo, Toronto and even some good teams, just couldn't pull off the win

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by codynw

Yea, but they lost in round one and have been pretty bad so far this season. Varlamov wasn't gonna have a .930SV% forever.

I'll worry about next year's team next year. You'll have guys like Poirier, Ortio and potentially Bennett plus many other changes. They may still be awful in advanced stats, but this year's performance has no bearing on next years.

Last year's Avs team finished first over Chicago and St.Louis. Yes - they lost in the playoffs but that's just being in the West. Acting like last year's poor advanced stats are why they suck this year doesn't make sense. They aren't same team.

Last year Av's team had a 919 save percentage. This year they have a 918 save percentage. So its not the goaltending. Its the fact that guys like Duchene, MacKinnon and O'Reilly have all taking a big step back in production this year.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They've been pretty static. The current numbers are right where they were after the first few games. The best stretch possession wise was the right game losing streak I believe. Outshooting Buffalo, Toronto and even some good teams, just couldn't pull off the win

That's too bad, and IMO also shows how important the goaltending has become to this team. Superior goaltending (Ramo/Hiller at the start, Ortio when he was called up) can bring results contrary to the possession stats, whereas when the goaltending becomes mediocre (I didn't think they were bad outside a couple games - just not great), the results reflect the stats. I bet if the Flames look back, Kipper kept them above water despite bad possession stats.

So the goal is to improve possession such that average goaltending doesn't matter - then you get consistent wins and when you add in good goaltending, you rise above that.

[PeteMoss]

^^ Flames have the 21st ranked team save percentage. It isn't the goaltending.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by codynw

A few teams not following the general trend does not make the stats "useless".

This was meant to be more sarcastic than anything as advanced stats obviously have a purpose.

But a lot of advanced stats are indicative of the coaching style and not the players, as it's the Team system and line match-ups determine how some of the advanced stats will look regardless if your team was executing their system to perfection or not.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

^^ Flames have the 21st ranked team save percentage. It isn't the goaltending.

What was it when they were really hot at the beginning of the year? What was it during the losing streak? What was Ortio's during his win streak?

I'm saying it's a big part of the difference between the stats and the results. The blocking is as well. But blocking is a two way street. You only get big blocking stats if you have poor possession stats, by and large.

[PeteMoss]

The Flames have a high shooting percentage. That plus taking very few penalties and success playing 4 on 4 is why they are doing better than their 'advanced' stats.