Brodie and Giordano make the "don't bet on these guys" list

[Enoch Root]

Remember the good ole days when an article like this would be about who's hot, and who's not? With no pretense.

At least then, some schmoe wasn't pretending to understand something they don't.

Here's a thought: maybe young guys like Tarasenko and Brodie have (gasp!) improved?

[GranteedEV]

Really, don't bet on them.

I have to win my bets against someone.

[jeffman]

I like how the writer claims that Brodie and gio are overrated due based on analysis on offensive stats only. Gio and Brodie's real value is how great they play defensively

[blender]

Whatever.

The author has a hyphen-use grammar mistake in the first paragraph. All credibility is shot as far as I'm concerned.

Couldn't be bothered to read much further.

[PeteMoss]

Could have saved himself some time just wrote that every player who is having a better than normal year is going to regress and every player who is having a worse than normal year is going to improve.

Outliers are what makes sports fun. If you went into every game knowing who was going to win, you wouldn't show up (Oilers fans excluded).

4 year OISH!!! In what world does a 4 year OISH matter to this year? 4 years ago these guys could have been out there Scott Hannan, Brandan Morrison, Tom Kostopolous and David Moss... sadly that doesn't effect what happens this year in any way.

[N26]

Looking at Flame Fan reactions on this site and others what does seem to be true is that we are in danger of of becoming this years Avalanche and Leaf fans. Pouring hate on anyone who says we are playing above our heads. Denying long-established mathematical realities like regression to the mean as if it was something made up by those against us.

We are over-achieving. We simply are. I really love this season's version of the Flames. I believe in this group, this room, in Giordano, in the quality of our prospects and our never-say-die-attitude. I think we now have a slightly better than 50-50 chance to make the playoffs but I am not going to kid myself into thinking we aren't possible crash-and-burn candidates. It's still a rebuilding team. What we have proven is that the 'mean' of this team is a little higher than most thought.

I suggest we simply be fans who enjoy being a team defying the statistical probabilities rather than fans who deny them. Otherwise we are as delusional as Leaf fans and that is not a comparison I want for us.

And if we are to fall apart, please Lord, let it be the day after tomorrow because I want to see us kick some centre-of-the-universe ass tomorrow.

[Keselke]

Pretty reasonable to assume, that points for

wideman
gio
brodie

Will all regress somewhat, well still likely all achieving career highs. But the current pace among all 3 is pretty unrealistic, especially wideman with consideration of his goals

[Dion]

Originally Posted by N26

Looking at Flame Fan reactions on this site and others what does seem to be true is that we are in danger of of becoming this years Avalanche and Leaf fans. Pouring hate on anyone who says we are playing above our heads. Denying long-established mathematical realities like regression to the mean as if it was something made up by those against us.

We are over-achieving. We simply are. I really love this season's version of the Flames. I believe in this group, this room, in Giordano, in the quality of our prospects and our never-say-die-attitude. I think we now have a slightly better than 50-50 chance to make the playoffs but I am not going to kid myself into thinking we aren't possible crash-and-burn candidates. It's still a rebuilding team. What we have proven is that the 'mean' of this team is a little higher than most thought.

I suggest we simply be fans who enjoy being a team defying the statistical probabilities rather than fans who deny them. Otherwise we are as delusional as Leaf fans and that is not a comparison I want for us.

And if we are to fall apart, please Lord, let it be the day after tomorrow because I want to see us kick some centre-of-the-universe ass tomorrow.

Just enjoy the ride and the experience is what I would expect most Flames fans would say. Even when we lose the team is still fun to watch as they bust thier arses night in and night out.

The playoffs to me is a bonus if we get there.

[heep223]

Kind of funny how they've gone from very underrated to very overrated in the span of about half a season.

[Fan in Exile]

What an asinine article. So "advanced stats" in this case are historical shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage (in some cases like Nyqvist only one season) and the brilliant deductive conclusion is that any discrepancy from the historical numbers describes either poor or good luck!

Wow, that's some pretty advanced analysis there...

[Philly06Cup]

Sigh.

Are people who hate on 'advanced stats' intentionally being ignorant? Advanced stats aim to refine stats into something more meaningful. EG. Removing empty net goals will give a better indication of how good a scorer is. This is plainly obvious. Trying to develop meaningful stats is a good thing and should be encouraged. More information is better than less information. Maybe they're not great now -- but if statistician continue to work on them and find stronger correlations, they can only improve.

I don't know if its been mentioned before, but the reason advanced stats hates Calgary is because the Flames have had crazy variance between their 5v5 play vs 4v4 play. 4-on-4, they have 8 GF, 1 GA. 5v5 play, the Flames have been average to poor. Most advanced stats disregard 4v4 stats, which distorts things greatly for our team. In fact, if all games were played 60 minutes 4-on-4, Calgary is projected to win every game by 6 goals. The fancy stats aren't broken. The people who use them improperly and jump to bogus conclusions are broken.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by sa226

The annoyance with advanced stats grows with each new article like this and that is hardly a revelation.

I guess what bugs me is that its even worthy of a story. Forget the Flames for a second. Tarasenko is one of the nice stories this year. An exciting young guy who scores highlight reel goals, and is really driving the Blues' offence. Why do they have to write a bit on his unsustainable pace? It seems like unnecessary debbie downerism.

Writing a story about overrated players is nothing new (Phaneuf). But using detailed stats to back it up is.

How many people would say that Tarasenko, Brodie and Girodano fit the traditional version of "overrated"? Not too many in my estimation. This article says they are overrated. That grinds my gears.

Last year's Tarasenko was Hertle.
Great young player, but way too hot a start to maintain throughout the year. Just like Monahan after 10 games.
Overrated? Nope.
Likely to sustain that pace? Nope
Just enjoy kids

[kehatch]

You want to know what's annoying? People getting on the "I hate advanced ststs" every time an article is written that says something we don't want to hear. Underrated / overrated articles existed before. Giordano and Brodie are putting up almost a point per game as D men. They would make the list before.

Personally I don't think Giordano or Brodie are overrated. It's the wrong word. But their production probably isn't sustainable long term. You don't really need advanced stats to tell you that.

[BigFlameDog]

Maybe we should make an "I frikkin' love advanced (sorry...just stats)" vs "I frikking hate advanced stats" peeing match/news thread so all you angry and condescending guys can go in there and have your sword fight.

(I know I should have stayed out but I didn't know it was an advanced...sorry, just stats, article.)

[GreenLantern]

I couldn't figure out what it was about the term "Advanced Stats" that really bugs me, but Troutman hit it on the head, the word "Advanced".

I can turn the knobs on data as much as I want until I finally get it to say something close to my argument. To me that is all these "advanced stats" seem to be.

Will Gio keep up a point a game pace? It is a tall order, but I wouldn't count him out of it. However whether he does or not, he is hardly over rated. He has proven at this point he is a legit top defender in this league. Is Brodie blazing his own trail or the beneficiary of Gio's great play? Probably a bit of both, and that isn't a bad thing at all.

[edslunch]

The article was published yesterday but the stats are a month old at least (Brodie with 8 points?). Not sure how much has changed but he's certainly jumping to early conclusions

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by N26

Looking at Flame Fan reactions on this site and others what does seem to be true is that we are in danger of of becoming this years Avalanche and Leaf fans. Pouring hate on anyone who says we are playing above our heads. Denying long-established mathematical realities like regression to the mean as if it was something made up by those against us.

We aren't in danger, we are behaving exactly like Leafs and Avs fans did last year. But that is also a natural opinion. Nobody wants to see the Flames run end. Toronto's did, and horribly. Colorado's didn't - at least not until they had a division title banner in their pockets. The Flames could go to either extreme, or they could find a middle ground. And given how strong our start was, we wouldn't have to do too much better than middle to make the playoffs at this point.

Other than Aaron Ward, nobody expected the Flames to be anywhere near the playoffs. And nobody here should be surprised that the doubters remain legion. People will continue to question the Flames right up until we either fall out of the race or we get that little x beside our name in the standings. And even if that happens, people will question whether we can duplicate it next year.

My advice? Don't worry about it. The stats say that what we are doing is decidedly unlikely. If people want to question the long-term sustainability of the Flames play on that basis, let them. There is nothing that makes that an invalid opinion. Just enjoy the team's play for what it is.

[Ulrith]

Originally Posted by edslunch

The article was published yesterday but the stats are a month old at least (Brodie with 8 points?). Not sure how much has changed but he's certainly jumping to early conclusions

They're 5 on 5 stats so they exclude all PP points, OT (4 on 4) and empty net occasions.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Ulrith

They're 5 on 5 stats so they exclude all PP points, OT (4 on 4) and empty net occasions.

Ok that explains the numbers, but before we call a player over or under rated shouldn't we also include their special teams contributions? If Brodie plummets from 8 pts 5v5 to 4 pts 5v5 for the next period does that make him a bum?

[Erick Estrada]

I don't know. I had major issues with the explosion of advanced stats long before the Flames were poster boys for defying them. Due to the nature of hockey they simply carry far less weight than football and baseball. Nice little tool for internet posters and bloggers to support their arguments for/against players or teams but they will never be the be-all end-all as the eye test and character is always going to be more important in hockey.