New Draft Lottery odds announced

[CliffFletcher]

Like the change. Worst possible timing for the Flames.

[Oil Stain]

For someone that can do stats.......

How often would we expect a team that finishes 10th to win a top 3 pick under this new system?

Like once every ten years type of thing?

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.

The numbers are kind of funny... #2 gets disproportionately dinged (lost ~30% relative chance) versus #1 (lost 20%) and #3 (~20%).

Not sure I understand that.

The jump between 9th and 10th also seems odd. Come to think of it the jumps between 7th and 10th seem out of whack.

[puckedoff]

I like it. Way better than current system.

I rate the NHL's decision at +20 horsepower.

[Gaskal]

Alright guys, this year's our year!

[4oh3]

So I'm confused? When the oilers are the first team to get disqualified from the playoffs they have a lot more chance of getting number one because they'll have played the most games?

[lazypucker]

I still don't care about how much more "fair" it is and how it will curb teams to intentionally suck as long as they are just going to reveal pre-printed cards from sealed envelopes on TSN...

[Poe969]

agreed, it still seems kinda fixed. They might as well just do it "Hunger Games" style where the loser has to go to the oilers.

[vanisleflamesfan]

Meh. I may be in the crazy minority (okay I acknowledge that I am on this one) but I still think that the league fixes the 'lottery' (or at least some of the important years). I believe that the league will send the top three players from this draft to Buffalo, the Islanders, and Florida in that order. Changing the draft odds just makes the fixing look less obvious if the standings don't turn out the way they want them to.

Okay, that is enough from the conspiracy theory corner.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by vanisleflamesfan

Meh. I may be in the crazy minority (okay I acknowledge that I am on this one) but I still think that the league fixes the 'lottery' (or at least some of the important years). I believe that the league will send the top three players from this draft to Buffalo, the Islanders, and Florida in that order. Changing the draft odds just makes the fixing look less obvious if the standings don't turn out the way they want them to.

Okay, that is enough from the conspiracy theory corner.

Given the lottery is for only the top pick this year, that's not going to happen.

And if the NHL is going to rig a draft, it would ensure that a team like Detroit wins the lottery if they miss the playoffs, not Buffalo or the Isles.

[GirlySports]

I still think my solution is better

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I still think my solution is better

No, it isn't.

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by lazypucker

I still don't care about how much more "fair" it is and how it will curb teams to intentionally suck as long as they are just going to reveal pre-printed cards from sealed envelopes on TSN...

I agree, the lotto should be live, or at least have the lotto taped as it happens so anyone that wants to watch it as it happened can after the fact.

To this day the Crosby draft still smells really fishy to me.

[vanisleflamesfan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Given the lottery is for only the top pick this year, that's not going to happen.

And if the NHL is going to rig a draft, it would ensure that a team like Detroit wins the lottery if they miss the playoffs, not Buffalo or the Isles.

Oops, I missed that bit. Okay, so that shoots down my conspiracy theory. Like most conspiracy theories, mine ignored the facts.

Anyway, I still think it makes sense to rig a draft in favour of teams like the Islanders or the Sabres. Similar situations to what Pittsburgh was in.

[You Need a Thneed]

Not insignificant odds that the worst place team only drafts 4th. It will happen quite regularly.

(without actually doing the math)

[nik-]

I wonder if we used all our draft luck in the last weekend of last season.

[Robbob]

I like this. I think that after 2015 draft the Flames will start trending upward and will end up drafting around 7th-10th in the 2016 draft. So I think this help more then hurts the Flames.

[#-3]

The odds do seem to take some odd jumps. But it looks like the league has gone out of their way to make a system that could be implemented with 200 lotto balls. Maybe they are going to a live, on-air draw like we have all asked for.

I know the old system was just done with a random scenario generator on a computer, because they would have needed like 10,000 balls to make it work.

Doing it right in front of us will at least limit the conspiracy theories when Phoenix, i mean Arizona wins.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by nik-

Still fixing the wrong thing. Just put a limit on how many times you can draft high in a set period.

I don't like that idea as it seems too arbitrary. How do you decide how many times is enough? With the unpredictability of draft quality from year-to year, I think there should still be an element of chance for draft position.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Not insignificant odds that the worst place team only drafts 4th. It will happen quite regularly.

(without actually doing the math)

if 17th won 1st, and 18th won 2nd.

30th would have just over a 51% chance at 3rd. There is only like a 0.02% chance of that happening.

Any other scenario would give them better odds of at least a top 3 pick.